the human province

For the second time in ten years, the village of Qana, where Jesus is said to have turned water into wine, was shelled by Israel. In 1996, during Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath, more than 100 Lebanese civilians were killed when the UN installation was shelled.

Again this week, the UN installation was shelled, after repeated pleas from UN observers to Israel to stop the strikes. This time around 60 civilians died, including 37 children.

This is also the second time in this war that Israel has hit UN outposts. Perhaps it's paranoia, which seems almost contagious in the region, but it's harder and harder for me to believe that these were accidents.

I went to the Dead Sea and Mount Nemo yesterday.

Here are some pictures from Petra and Wadi Rum and Amman:

This is from Petra, the pink city, built by the Nabateans and later annexed by the Romans:


This is a picture of Wadi Rum, where Lawrence of Arabia was based during the Arab Revolt of 1917-18:



This is downtown Amman, where a woman is selling ducks, chickens and baby chicks, the last of which have been dyed, presumably so that children will get their parents to buy them one. From what I saw, this worked, because this woman sold several chicks while I was there, whereas the woman down the street with plain yellow chicks wasn't selling any at all:

I just got back from Petra, Wadi Rum and Aqaba. I'm very tired now, but tomorrow, I'll write a little about it and upload a couple of pictures, insh'allah.

If you've ever seen the last Indiana Jones movie, you've seen the treasury at Petra...

There's been no news about Amal or a negotiation for the captured Israeli troops. There has been more and more talk about a multinational force, but in order to patrol the border and disarm Hizbollah, it would have to be enormous and belligerant.

Forcefully trying to disarm Hizbollah seems foolish, and if this is attempted by foreign troops, they will quickly find themselves in a hostile quagmire.

If Hizbollah is to be disarmed, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that would include regularizing the border between Israel and Lebanon, especially the Shebba Farms that Israel still occupies; prisoner exchanges; and folding Hizbollah forces into a national Lebanese army under the control of Beirut.

According to my sources, Condoleeza Rice has just arrived in Beirut, which is suprising since she was scheduled to only visit Israel. We'll see if anything comes of her visit...

Since this war started, I've been afraid of an escalation involving Syria. In the last few days, it's seemed that things will either get much better or much worse in the next couple of weeks:

Better: Hizbollah has reportedly given the two captured Israeli soldiers to the other Shia party, Amal, so that they can negotiate their release with Israel.

Olmert has said that Israel would accept an EU peacekeeping force.

Worse: Despite talk of an international force on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Israel continues to step up its attacks and creep farther and farther into Lebanon.

Syria has responded, saying, "If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within 20 kilometres of Damascus. What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

I hope that with the capture of two Hizbollah militants, Israel and Hizbollah can negotiate (directly, or through an intermediary like Amal or Germany) the release of prisoners on both sides as well as a general cease-fire.

Here is a piece in Ha'aretz that lays things out for Israeli readers:

This war must be stopped now and immediately. From the start it was unnecessary, even if its excuse was justified, and now is the time to end it. Every day raises its price for no reason, taking a toll in blood that gives Israel nothing tangible in return....

Israel went into the campaign on justified grounds and with foul means. It claims it has declared war on Hezbollah but, in practice, it is destroying Lebanon. It has gotten most of what it could have out of this war. The aerial "target bank" has mostly been covered. The air force could continue to sow destruction in the residential neighborhoods and empty offices and could also continue dropping dozens of tons of bombs on real or imagined bunkers and kill innocent Lebanese, but nothing good will come of it.

And in a wonderful little piece by Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert on casting the first stone, he shows that humans instinctively think of their actions as consequences of another's provocation and nearly always underestimate the strength of their response (it's worth reading in its entirety to see the experiments used):

After all, it is wrong to punch anyone except a puncher, and our language even has special words -- like "retaliation" and "retribution" and "revenge" -- whose common prefix is meant to remind us that a punch thrown second is legally and morally different than a punch thrown first.

That's why participants in every one of the globe's intractable conflicts -- from Ireland to the Middle East -- offer the even-numberedness of their punches as grounds for exculpation.

The problem with the principle of even-numberedness is that people count differently. Every action has a cause and a consequence: something that led to it and something that followed from it. But research shows that while people think of their own actions as the consequences of what came before, they think of other people's actions as the causes of what came later....

Examples aren't hard to come by. Shiites seek revenge on Sunnis for the revenge they sought on Shiites; Irish Catholics retaliate against the Protestants who retaliated against them; and since 1948, it's hard to think of any partisan in the Middle East who has done anything but play defense. In each of these instances, people on one side claim that they are merely responding to provocation and dismiss the other side's identical claim as disingenuous spin. But research suggests that these claims reflect genuinely different perceptions of the same bloody conversation....

If the first principle of legitimate punching is that punches must be even-numbered, the second principle is that an even-numbered punch may be no more forceful than the odd-numbered punch that preceded it. Legitimate retribution is meant to restore balance, and thus an eye for an eye is fair, but an eye for an eyelash is not. When the European Union condemned Israel for bombing Lebanon in retaliation for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, it did not question Israel's right to respond, but rather, its "disproportionate use of force." It is O.K. to hit back, just not too hard.

Research shows that people have as much trouble applying the second principle as the first. ...

Research teaches us that our reasons and our pains are more palpable, more obvious and real, than are the reasons and pains of others. This leads to the escalation of mutual harm, to the illusion that others are solely responsible for it and to the belief that our actions are justifiable responses to theirs.

Alan Dershiwitz has a disgusting piece in the Los Angeles Times in which he argues that many of the civilians in Lebanon and Palestine are getting what they deserve. He argues for a "continuum of civilianality," which would make many civilians fair game for Israeli strikes:

The Israeli army has given well-publicized notice to civilians to leave those areas of southern Lebanon that have been turned into war zones. Those who voluntarily remain behind have become complicit. Some -- those who cannot leave on their own -- should be counted among the innocent victims.

Why would people stay in the areas being bombarded by the Israelis? Many have no place to go; in the south, most of the bridges have been destroyed, trapping many families in their towns; and since Israel has been bombing civilian convoys, many are afraid to leave. And for good reason:

On Sunday [the Shaito family] gave up their stand, and all 18 members crammed into the family's white Mazda minivan. They planned to head north toward the relative safety of Beirut.

Within minutes they became casualties of Israel's 12-day-old bombardment of southern Lebanon, which the Israelis say they will continue indefinitely to destroy the military abilities of Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group. By the Lebanese official count, Israel's attacks have killed more than 380 Lebanese.

An Israeli rocket, which Lebanese officials said was likely fired from a helicopter, slammed into the center of the Shaitos' van as it sped round a bend a few miles west of their village, and the van crashed into a hillside. Three occupants were killed: an uncle, Mohammad; the grandmother, Nazira; and a Syrian man who had guarded their home. The missile also critically wounded Mrs. Shaito and her sister. Eleven others suffered less severe wounds.

"They said leave, and that's what we did," said Musbah Shaito, another uncle, as his niece, Heba, 16, cried hysterically behind him for her dead father, whose head was nearly blown off. This reporter watched as paramedics struggled to remove the dead from the van, but soon gave up, as an Israeli drone hovered overhead.

"This is what we got for listening to them," Mr. Shaito said, speaking of the Israelis.

This is what Mr Dershowitz's cold calculus means in human terms. That same day, Israel reported that they had hit "approximately 20 vehicles" suspected of "serving the terror organization in the launching of missiles at Israel, and were recognized fleeing from or staying at missile-launching areas."

Read that again. These vehicles were either fleeing or staying, so they were hit. These civilians were obviously "complicit," according to Alan Dershiwitz.

I arrived last night in Amman to my friend's house, where I've been received in the Arabic tradition, that is to say with open arms and unlimited hospitality. I'll be figuring out my ticket back to Paris and should be back in France in the next week or so.

Yesterday was a bloody day for Lebanon, even more so than "usual." At least 55 Lebanese civilians were killed in Israeli attacks, bringing the toll up to over 300. The Israelis also attacked Achrifieh, which is a chic Christian neighborhood of Beirut.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, has spoken out agains the assaults by Israel and Hizbollah:

Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians... Similarly, the bombardment of sites with alleged military significance, but resulting invariably in the killing of innocent civilians, is unjustifiable.

Responding to complaints that Israel has been using disproportionate force, Dan Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador to the UN, had the following to say: "You're damn right we are."

In other news, The New York Times published a letter to the editor that I sent them the other day.

I've been told that El Pais linked to my blog, but I haven't been able to find it, so a link would be appreciated.

An Australian friend of mine who has stayed in Beirut is also keeping a blog. You can check it out here.

I arrived safely last night to Damascus, and UNRWA has welcomed me with open arms. For one reason or another, the convoy split at the Syrian border, with the World Bank bus and one or two other buses going to the Dead Sea. I was told by UNDP and UNRWA in Syria that there were no hotels at the Dead Sea, so I stayed here at the UNRWA training center in Damascus.

Representatives from UNHCR, UNRWA and UNDP are arranging for me to leave to Amman today, since it seems that my Syrian transit visa is only good for 24 hours. I will be staying with friends in Amman until I can arrange for a flight back to Paris, which will probably take a few days. I will check in with the Amman UNESCO office today or tomorrow morning at the latest.

I will give a more detailed account when I get to Amman.

With the help of my friends all over the world and some connections from work, I've been lucky enough to find a way out of the country in a UN convoy. My colleagues and friends at UNESCO especially, and some diplomats and friends from Iraq and Iceland, have been very helpful, and I appreciate this greatly. It is in situations like this that you realize how much your friends and family really care about you. My family has been worried sick but have done everything they can to help me leave.

So to everyone who has worried about me, made telephone calls and sent emails for me, given me advice, checked up, sent encouraging words or called just to say that they're thinking of me, thank you. Thank you very much.

I almost regret leaving, because many of my friends here cannot. I have the privilege of having the right color passport, or in the case of my Palestinian friends, of having a passport at all. So it is both with relief and with a heavy heart that I leave this city that I love so much and all of my friends here, whom I'll miss very much.

I'll probably spend most if not all of tomorrow in the bus or on the border tomorrow, but when I arrive in Amman, I'll post an update of the voyage.

I just ran into a woman and her 4 children who has just come from Tyre. The first thing she asked was whether there were bombs here too. She didn't speak any English (only Arabic and German), so I had to interpret in bad German for my friend who was trying to help her get in touch with the German embassy (she and her children are German citizens).

We gave her the number for the German embassy in Beirut and sent the Germans an email with her information so that she could get evacuated. She told me that she didn't care if she went to France or Italy or Germany or wherever, so long as her kids could get out of Lebanon. Tyre has been bombed many times in the last few days. She has a 2-month old baby in addition to her three other children children, who are 9, 8 and 5 years old.

My Dutch friend just crossed the Syrian border. She was stuck there for a while, because there were so many people crossing: Dutch, Brazilian, Czech and Swiss busses among others. She said that the road was fine and that all was calm, since the Israelis must know that a lot of foreign nationals are leaving by road.

I'm watching al-Jazeera, and they are reporting that Hizbollah has just downed an Israeli F-16.

People have been streaming in from the South and from Dahiye, the southern suburb of Beirut that's been continuously hit by the Israelis, so the building where I'm staying is getting fuller and fuller. At all hours of the night, there are groups of people sitting in the hallways smoking or talking or worrying.

I haven't gone into Dahiye, but a friend who lives there has told me what it looks like. Here are some pictures from the Times:

The American embassy is a mess this morning. They would not let anyone inside the embassy; instead, they handed out registration forms and a list of things to bring in a "small bag" in an evacuation. We were told that "hopefully" there would be an evacuation this week, probably to Cyprus, however, they did not know how. To evacuate, it is necessary to pay, but if you don't have enough money, you must sign a promissory note. The rules for who can evacuate are this: American citizens only. If your children are not citizens, they can come, so long as they are minors. Non-American parents who have children (minors) that are American nationals must choose which parent will go with the children and which will stay. Green card holders cannot go. Non-American spouses of American citizens cannot go. Families will be split up.

The French are not splitting up families and have already started their evacuation. French residents, myself included, are not allowed to go. It is unclear if they are leaving by air, land or sea, but I don't think that it's by sea. The Dutch left this morning by bus to Aleppo. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that the Italians are stuck in a bus, because they cannot leave by sea due to the Israeli shelling of the ports. I'm not sure if they are stuck at a port or if they detoured from the port and are trying to leave by land now. Two British warships arrived last night, although they have not called my friend with a British passport. There is no word from the Australian embassy, and the Jordanians evacuated by bus several days ago, although a Jordanian friend of mine missed that bus, because she has two passports and was not registered with the Jordanians.

UNESCO is planning on evacuating people out of Beirut to the city of Jbeil (Byblos), but there is no word on leaving Lebanon.

It seems like none of the Western countries were able to negotiate safe passage by sea with the Israelis, which is highly surprising but would explain why the Israelis decided to hit so many ports this weekend. The word is that 8 Canadians were killed last night, although again, it's impossible for me to confirm this.

I am thinking about taking advantage of the lull in attacks on the northern road into Syria to try to get to the border and bribe my way into a transit visa so that I can get to Turkey. A Dutch friend of mine who evacuated this morning with her compatriots told me that the road was passable. Prices seem to be dropping a bit for taxis, since the Israelis have taken a break from bombing the roads, so it looks like a taxi to Tripoli would be around $100, and probably a similar price for the rest of the trip to Syria. Once inside Syria, the prices should be normal, which is to say cheap. From the Turkish border, I could stay with friends in Mersin and then make my way to Istanbul, where I have friends and could negotiate a flight to Paris with one of the two Turkish Airways tickets that I have. I don't really fancy waiting a week or more for the Americans, and once in Cyprus, I'll be on my own, and I'm pretty sure that Turkish Airways does not fly to Cyprus.

I was called this morning at the school where I had taken my first Arabic class the morning Hizbollah attacked Israel. The woman from the school asked if I was leaving or not, so that they could try to organize themselves for the classes that had already begun. I told her that I was not sure when I would be leaving but that I was pretty sure that I would not be continuing my classes with them. She told me to be careful and said that she would pray for me to get out safely. Then she left me with a touching but disconcerting request: "Please pray for my country." I can't remember the last time I prayed, but I said I would.

Apparently the US is sending an "assessment team" to Beirut, which may or may not have already arrived. This is the email (they still haven't managed to get with the program and start sending text messages instead of emails) they sent me today:

The US Department of State and the US Department of Defense continue working on a plan to help American citizens who wish to depart Lebanon to leave in a secure and orderly manner. To assist in the development of that operation, the U.S. Government is sending an assessment team to Beirut to facilitate the safe departure of Americans who wish to leave.

The Embassy is open and will remain open at this time in support of American citizens in Lebanon. American citizens may register by contacting the Embassy in Beirut directly, or through the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs registration site at http://travelregistration.state.gov. For updated information, visit the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs website at http://travel.state.gov.

Updated information on travel and security in Lebanon may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States, or, from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. Additional information, as it becomes available will be released via the media, Embassy warden announcements and on the Department and Embassy websites.

I'll try to get aboard any evacuation ship to Cyprus I can, but there are scores of thousands of foreigners here, and any evacuation effort will most likely take several days, and families with children and medical cases will be the first to leave. I'll sign the promissory note saying that I'll pay the government back, but I still find it scandalous.

I'm a little worried about how much I'll be able to take back with me. I've got a lot of books for my thesis, which I'm supposed to defend in September. But what I'm really worried about are friends of mine who cannot leave Lebanon. Many have headed for towns in the mountains, but it's hard to say how safe (and for how long) these places will end up being.

Otherwise, I've been staying away from the news today, reading and listening to music. I did go down to al Manara (the lighthouse), which was hit by Israel yesterday and is about a 7-10 minute walk from my place. I was actually surprised that the lighthouse was not more damaged (only the top seemed to be damaged). Here's what it looks like:



My friend is going back to what's left of his neighborhood in Dahiye (the residential suburb being called a "Hizbollah stronghold" where Hizbollah's offices are). He's going to try to take some pictures, which I'll try to post here.

Otherwise, here is an account of what's happening here by Robert Fisk, who lives in Beirut.

Here is an interesting interview with the co-director of an American NGO that actually talks with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran.

While I was buying a cheese and zataar manouche today, a guy came up and gave this flyer to a friend with me:



The snake in the corner is Nasrallah, and the text says, The resistance defends the nation? The nation is sacrificed by the resistance... (al maqawama tahmi wattan? al wattan tahiya al maqawama...)

We passed the flyer around so that everyone could see, then two Lebanese officers from the police station came by and asked my friend for his paper, which he took to mean papers, starting to get out his passport. They said no, and told him that they wanted to see the flyer. They inspected it and then asked him where it came from. A few minutes later, a young kid about ten years old came up and asked to see it too. Then the guy who gave us the flyer came back with more, passing them out. He and his friends started loudly discussing how the Lebanese people didn't need Hizbollah.

It's hard to say if they were sincere, because there was a police station within earshot. They could have been trying to find people with anti-Hizbollah sentiments, because after all, the other day, Nasrallah did say, in a pronouncement that would make Bush proud: if you're against us, you're against Lebanon.

I meant to post this last night, but I was too tired. This is a picture of Bliss Street, the main drag for students at the American University of Beirut in Hamra. On Friday and Saturday nights, it is usually packed with young people having food at the local diners Zataar wa Zeit (Zataar and Oil) and B to B (Breakfast to Breakfast) after a night of dancing.

To give you an idea of how things have slowed down here, there was no one there last night, and no cars either:

I registered with the French embassy as a resident of Paris today and then decided to go for lunch and a coffee. As I was having a beer (instead of a coffee), my friends and I heard an explosion that sounded louder and closer than they have so far. It turns out that the Israelis have bombed Beirut's main port and the neighborhood of al Manara, which is on the coast and about a ten minute walk from my place here.

The ports of Jounieh, Jbeil (Byblos) and Tripoli (all north of Beirut) were also hit. As I write, all of these places are being hit again. The Israelis are not really discriminating based on sect; they are bombing all of Lebanon's infrastructure, making good on their promise to set Lebanon back 20 years.

Balbaak was also hit. The house of a leader in Hizbollah was hit, but it's unclear if he was harmed or not.

The word out at all of the European embassies is that the European, American, Canadian, British and Australian embassies are going to start evacuating by boat to Cyprus starting on Monday. However, I'm not sure how we're supposed to board these boats if the Israelis keep bombing all the ports in the area.

A lot of people are still trying to leave by car, but the roads to Syria are very dangerous, because the Israelis are continually bombing them. Normally a taxi to Damascus costs about $15 or $20; yesterday, people were paying $200 to $300; and today, people are paying between $800 and $1,000 per person.

UPDATE: They just hit the port (or maybe Manara) again, and perhaps I'm just being paranoid, but I have the feeling that the Israelis are doing this to make it more difficult for Westerners to leave...

I've been pretty disappointed with the US Government in general and the Embassy here in Beirut in particular. They've been keeping office hours (when I called them right after the airport was bombed, they said to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open), with the exception of being open today, and have been less than helpful in general.

I registered with them, and they've been sending me "Warden Messages," by email. I've yet to receive any phone messages or calls, so I'm not sure what those who don't have access to email are supposed to do. In any case, I received a message about a "repatriation" plan to a neighboring country (most likely, a boat to Cyprus). I was suprised to find out that this service is not free. Out of a 7-line message from the State Department, 4 lines are about paying them back for this service rendered:

The Department of State reminds American citizens that the U.S. government does not provide no-cost transportation but does have the authority to provide repatriation loans to those in financial need. For the portion of your trip directly handled by the U.S. Government we will ask you to sign a promissory note and we will bill you at a later date. In a subsequent message, when we have specific details about the transporation arrangments, we will inform you about the costs you will incur. We will also work with commercial aircraft to ensure that they have adequate flights to help you depart Cyprus and connect to your final destination.

In lighter news, this dangerous militant, Abu Biss al Bussy Qatti, was found hiding in our bathroom, curled up next to the bidet:

According to al Manar, Israel has confirmed the sinking of one of their shiups off the coast of Lebanon. Nasrallah, after surviving an Israeli attack unhurt, is speaking, and he is saying that he does not believe in an international community and that he is sorry for the loss of Lebanese lives. He is calling on the Lebanese people to go take a look at the sinking ship before it is submerged in the Mediterannean. He is saying that like before (when Hezbollah forced Israel out of southern Lebanon in 2000), the Lebanese people will prevail.

His message to Israel: "Your new government is incompetent, does not know how to measure proportionality and is very weak and inexperienced. ... When you hit Beirut, we will hit Haifa. When you hit Dahiye, we will hit Haifa. ... We can reach Haifa, and what's after Haifa and what's after what's after Haifa."

UPDATE: The Israelis are claiming that the warship was "slightly damaged." Al Jazeera is saying that Hezbollah has sunk the ship. Lebanese forces are, according to Al Jazeera, "fending off amphibious Israeli forces" off the coast of Saida.

The strike on the electricity transformers has taken out electricity in all of Beirut. I didn't notice at first, because I was at a friend's place, and there's a generator in the apartment building. The hallways of the building have been frantic since the bombings early this morning at around 3 or 4 a.m. People were leaving, but I think that a lot of people are coming back after the electricity went out in the city, since there's a generator. I ran into a family of American Arabs from Michigan in the lobby of the apartment building, who has just arrived in Lebanon for work. Their family lives in Baalbek and the south, so they don't have anywhere to go, since both areas are being shelled by the Israelis.

Things are tense here in the city, because it's hard to sleep with the shelling during the night and then it's disconcerting that the electricity is out now, also. Everyone has been really helpful and nice, worrying about me since I'm foreign. I think I will continue staying at my friend's place, if only because they have a generator, which means that the AC will be working.

Some people are getting really worried about this spreading to Syria, and I think that they're right to worry about that. I'm afraid that the Syrians will do something stupid, and that the Israelis will start bombing Damascus. Israel has already retreated troops from Gaza, but this is obviously so that they can reinforce the reserves in Lebanon, and probably get ready to hit Syria. Damascus, I think, believes that they have Teheran's support, but it wouldn't surprise me if Iran stays out of this one, particularly if Syria hits Israel first. The Iranians know that if they get overtly involved, then the US will use that as an excuse to start the regime changes in Damascus and Tehran that they've been hoping for.

There are some who think that the UN will be able to broker a cease-fire this weekend, but I'm not very optimistic, particularly if Annan's envoys focus their efforts on the Lebanese government instead of going directly to Nasrallah. At this point, it seems unlikely that either Israel or Hezbollah will be willing to back down any time soon. I predict that if and when this spreads to Syria, Western governments will start evacuating their nationals.

I'm more awake now after a couple of hours of sleep. It looks like what woke me up this morning was the tail end of last night's attack this morning. Saida was shelled last night from the sea, while Dahiye (southern suburb of Beirut controlled by Hizbollah) was hit again, along with the road to Damascus and the airport.

Dan Halutz, chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, has said that Israel will "take Lebanon back 20 years." Beirut in 1986 was not a good place to be. If you have any doubts about that, a quick look at Robert Fisk's journalism from the period will change your mind.

The electricity went out earlier this morning, but only for a minute or two. I'm a little worried about the Israelis are going to start destroying Lebanon's infrastructure, which would mean that I'd be without electricity.

I went out for a drink last night, where I ran into someone from the British embassy. A discussion with him did not really make me feel any better. He was telling me how many British citizens here have this idea that there must be Black Hawks poised to break the blockade and evacuate the crown's own. This is not the case. At least not yet. All of the embassies that I've spoken to (US, French and UK) have said that the main course of action now is to just wait and see, trying to stay away from areas that might be subject to Israeli shelling. He also told me that travelling to Damascus was a bad idea, since people were driving like fools trying to get to the border, and there's a chance that the Syrians might turn you back anyway, depending on your passport. Last night's attack on the road to Syria showed that his advice and my gut feeling against Syria were indeed correct.

Looking at the western press, there's something that keeps bothering me. I keep hearing that a Hizbollah stronghold has been targeted by Israel. That's one way of putting it. Another would be the residential Shi'ite suburb of Beirut where Hizbollah has a lot of support, as well as their offices and television station. I can't help but think that people hear "Hizbollah stronghold" and imagine some sort of a militarty base. This is not the case. Dahiye is a residential suburb where families live and children go to school. Likewise in the south of the country. On one of the bridges that was bombed in the south, you can see the skid marks of a car that didn't stop in time after the explosion. The car, and everyone in it, fell 50 feet to the ground.

These are the kinds of people that are being harmed:



I'm going to go out and get something to eat, but in the meantime, looking at some of the consequences of this conflict is a good idea.

It's a quarter to five, and I just woke up. I thought I heard a loud noise but then wasn't sure. Now I'm sure there was an explosion. It sounds like neighbors pulling down their garage door fast. I'm pretty sure that it sounds like that, because it's not very close, because I can't see anything, except for people waking up to go outside and look around. I assume that the Israelis have hit Dahiye again, the Shi'ite suburb to the south of the airport. I'm watching al-Jazeera now, and it's showing the bomb scene in Beirut (or maybe it was just a sonic boom?), but I can't make out the neighborhood, because my Arabic isn't good enough to keep up with the scrolling headlines. There is a picture of a young man in his early twenties or late teens. He's covered in blood, but he seems to be unhurt, so it's hard to tell if it's someone else's blood or if it's his.

I'm sure that the news will get to the English language channels in a few hours. Last night, the airport was hit again. Other targets include the main road from the airport to the south and the road from Beirut to Damascus. I don't know if any people were killed on the way to Damascus, but Israel has confirmed hitting the road five times, and I know a lot of people were taking that road, because it's pretty much the only way out of the country since the ports have been blockaded and the airport closed. Apparently the fuel stores at the Jiyyeh power plant south of the city was also hit.

All of the Israeli talking heads keep talking about cutting off supply lines for Syria, but this is absurd. We all know where Hizbollah's money and weapons come from: Syria. Hitting the airport and blockading the ports, effectively trapping everyone inside Lebanon, is meant to make a point to Beirut: look what we can do.

I think the latest attacks are over, so I'm going to try to go back to bed. I haven't gotten much sleep in the last day or two. Here's a map that shows (circled and in red) where I am in Beirut and where the airport is. Compared to American cities, or even Paris, Beirut is a small city.

I've packed up my things in case the worst happens and I need to leave Beirut in a hurry. I've also registered with the embassy, but they've not been very helpful and have given me no information whatsoever. (When I called this morning after the bombing of the airport, they told me to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open.)

It seems that Israel has blockaded all Lebanese ports, so the route that I was keeping in mind to Cyprus is closed. The only option now is at the Syrian border, but again, I'm hesitant to try that, because the borders are already packed and I have my doubts about the Syrians letting me into the country unless I'm part of an official foreign convoy.

Twenty-seven Lebanese people were killed in last night's and this morning's attacks, and from what I can see, an Israeli woman was killed last night by Hizbollah rocket attacks.

Beirut, or at least my neighborhood, Hamra, is calm. Classes were not cancelled at the Lebanese American University, which may or may not be a bellwether for the situation as a whole.

Last night I went to bed after no news here. Israel had bombed several cities in the south, including Nabatiya, the city where I spent last weekend swimming and enjoying the sun. I woke up this morning to a call from a friend's parents in Amman, who told us that Israel had just bombed the Bierut airport, which is now closed.

I called the US embassy, but they told me that they're closed and that I should call back at 8:30.

The Lebanese emvoy to the US, Farid Abboud, was recalled to Beirut for saying that Israel should exchange prisoners.

I haven't been able to get into Syria for the last few days, so I have a hard time believing that I'll be able to get into Damascus. The airport is the only real way out for me, unless I can take a boat from the north to Cyprus, where I could get a flight back to Paris.

Israel is saying that the airport is the hub for terrorist weapons, which is bullshit, because everything most likely comes through the Syrian ground border. This is to show Beirut that Israel means business. I hope that it's a bluff, and that this will be the only real attacks north of Hizbollah-controlled parts of the south. I also hope that there will not be inter-Lebanese fighting...

It seems that Hizbollah has attacked Israel and taken two soldiers. According to the CNN correspondant in Beirut, there are celabratory gunshots in the southern suburbs. I can't hear any, but then again, I'm in Hamra and not in the Shi'ite suburbs. And honestly, if I hadn't turned on the television, I wouldn't know that anything was happening.

I was supposed to go down to the south of Lebanon this weekend, but depending on how things play out in the next few days, I think I'll probably wait to see how things go before driving down there.

I know that it's easier for the IDF to attack Gaza than it is to launch a full attack against Lebanon (there have already been a few air strikes inside lebanese territory on Hizbollah targets), but I'm not terribly optimistic about Israel's response to such an attack, considering their response to the recent Hamas attack.

CNN seems intent on stressing the "celabratory gunfire in Beirut," which is misleading at best. The Beirut correspondant said that there was gunfire in the southern suburbs, which are bastions of Shi'ite Hezbollah supporters. From where I am, Hamra, which is the prodominantly Muslim neighborhood where the Lebanese American University and the American University in Beirut are, is calm and gunfire-free.

I spent Friday night and Saturday morning in a small oasis. A friend of a friend's parents own a beautiful house in the Shi'ite town Nabatiya. Driving into town, the streets were lined with pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah flags and pictures of Lebanese Shi'a martyrs. The Party of God's merchandise was on sale, including flags and t-shirts and even a kite.

But we were insulated from all this within the confines of a luxurious house, where we swam and drank mixed drinks to the sound of the evening call to prayer. Unfortunately, we had to leave early on Saturday morning, so I wasn't really able to explore the South, but I will return soon enough.

Sometimes it's interesting to go back and look at things you've written previously. Last night, I came across a piece on the Middle East (and Lebanon specifically) that I wrote when the US was patting itself on the back for pushing the region toward democracy.

Here it is:

Objects in Motion

January 2005

Reading the news in the English language world today gives one the impression that democracy is spreading like wildfire in the Middle East ? that "freedom is on the march." Even many of those against the war in Iraq are starting to think that although they don?t like President Bush's methods, it's hard to argue with results. Apparently, the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent toppling of its mustachioed tyrant have pushed the Arab world in the direction of democracy, and as any first year physics student will tell you, objects in motion tend to stay in motion. So, according to Newton's first law as applied to geopolitics, the Middle East was an object at rest, which would stay at rest until acted upon by an exterior force, that is to say, the United States.

Another part of Newton's law is that objects in motion tend to continue in a straight line. Thus set in motion towards democracy, the Middle East cannot help but continue this noble trajectory. So, we hear, Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq have all had democratic elections; Egypt and Saudi Arabia have begun to inch their way in democracy?s direction; and finally, the Lebanese population has decided to throw off the yoke of Syrian influence in order to fulfill its inevitable destiny of self-determination.

Recent Elections

Is this true? Has freedom been brought with cannons; has democracy been exported like processed goods? To be sure, the fall of the Taliban is a good start for Afghanistan; however, with the exception of Kabul, most of the country is currently in the hands of warlords and Taliban returnees. The west has a short attention span, and as a result, women are being forced to don their Burkahs again, and the opium trade is flourishing. The National Human Development Report, published this month by the United Nations Development Programme, describes Afghanistan as "a fragile nation still at odds if no longer at war with itself that could easily slip back into chaos and abject poverty."

Democracy's next stop is Palestine where the recent democratic elections saw the ascendance of Mr. Abbas, who was elected with a broad base of support from across the board. This, however, was due to Arafat's death, not the invasion of Iraq. Furthermore, although most Americans don?t know it, Palestinians have had democratic elections before. They were held in 1996, and Arafat won 88 percent of the vote. His opponent was a woman named Sahima Khalil who headed a local NGO. A total of 692 candidates ran for the 88 seats of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Which brings us to the elections in Iraq. While the elections were an enormous step for Iraqis, there were also enormous problems. Security was so bad that most of the candidates refused to campaign or even publicly admit to running for office for fear of assassination. While writing this, I learn that 47 people were killed by a suicide bomber in a Shiite Mosque in Mosul at a funeral, as was the Baghdad Chief of Police with his driver and guard in a separate incident. Add this to the 105 people killed two weeks ago outside a medical clinic in the town of Hillah, south of Baghdad, and democracy's victory dance seems somehow less convincing.

It's currently too early to know what to make of the political reforms in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Time will tell if Cairo's move to allow a multiparty presidential election is genuine or just window dressing designed to give the presidency to Mubarak's son Gamal. The amendment to Egypt's constitution does not set term limits (Mubarak, who is 76, is on his fourth term), and it remains to be seen if the banned Muslim Brotherhood, the largest Islamic group in the country, will be allowed to participate or if the government will release imprisoned opposition leaders like Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, who was arrested last January. Likewise, it is difficult to say whether the proposal for limited municipal elections in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh's promise that women will get to vote not this time, but next time, is genuine reform or a charade to smooth over relations with the West, and namely the US. Furthermore, it is difficult to say if the invasion of Iraq served as a catalyst for these proposed changes or if they occurred independent of (or even despite) American intervention.


Lebanon and the "Cedar Revolution"

As for Lebanon, images of Beirut's youth, both Muslim and Christian, banding together and waving cedar flags are comforting to the West, especially after last year's UN Security Council Resolution 1559 called for the Syrian government to withdraw its 14,000 troops and cease its interference in Lebanese affairs. The same resolution called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Shia Islamic party/militia accredited with pushing Israel out of Southern Lebanon. The opposition demonstrations, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami (who was reelected by the Parliament nine days later), drew immediate comparisons to the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, leading many in the western press to dub the protests the "Cedar Revolution" and give the credit to American intervention in Iraq. The truth, however, seems to be much more complicated.

Opposition to the current government in Beirut and its backers in Damascus, has been building for some time now. It followed the September 2004 move by Syria to influence the Lebanese National Assembly to amend the constitution to give pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud an additional three years in office, lengthening his mandate from six to nine years. This was the second time that Syria had pressured Lebanon's Parliament into making constitutional changes in favor of Lahoud, the first being in 1998 by allowing him to run for president immediately after resigning as the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Finally, former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who resigned in protest of the constitutional amendment in 2004, was killed in a car bombing last month. This is what sparked large demonstrations against the government and Syria in Beirut. It is true, however, that the US, along with France, supported the UN Security Council Resolution calling for the withdrawal of Syrian forces. But unless the assassination, which has been largely attributed to Syria by outsiders as well as the Lebanese opposition, was the work of the US, it's hard to say how the Bush administration can take all the credit for the Lebanese opposition movement.

Lebanese history and politics are very complicated, and the huge pro-Syria counter-protest organized by Hezbollah this week illustrated this fact. Lebanon, a country that is a little over two-thirds the size of Connecticut and has just under 4 million inhabitants, is highly sectarian. There are 17 officially recognized religions in the tiny country, and the government is based on what is called a sectarian balance. This means that the constitution stipulates the religion of the major office holders and the religious makeup of the Parliament. Concretely, this means that the president is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim and the position of Speaker of the Parliament is reserved for a Shia Muslim. Likewise, the Parliament itself is balanced along sectarian lines, with the 128 seats being split evenly between Christians and Muslims and being subdivided to allow for 27 seats each for Shia and Sunni Muslims and 8 and 2 seats for the Druze and Alawi Muslim sects, respectively. Of the 64 Christian seats, 34 are reserved for Maronites. Although there has not been an official census since 1932, about 59 percent of Lebanese citizens are thought to be Muslim.

In addition to the 17 sects, there are also as many as 1 million Syrian workers and about 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The Palestinians, a largely Sunni group that makes up over 10 percent of population in Lebanon, suffer from the delicate sectarian balancing act. Even those born in Lebanon are not granted Lebanese citizenship; they are barred from 73 job categories (including medicine, law and engineering), and are not allowed to own property. Unlike other foreigners in Lebanon, they are denied access to the public health system. Moreover, they are refused work permits and the right to own land. Ostensibly, this is in solidarity for the Palestinians' right to return to the occupied territories or within Israel, but in reality, it is more likely due to the fact that allowing Palestinians to participate in the running of the country would tip the balance in favor of the Muslims in general and the Sunni in particular.

This multifaceted mishmash that constitutes Lebanese society means that things are much more complex than the pictures of the "Cedar Revolution" let on. For starters, the Syrian force was installed in Lebanon for a reason: to end the civil war and stabilize the war-torn country. And while Damascus certainly takes advantage of its influence in Lebanon with less than altruistic intentions, it is unclear what a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would mean exactly. While the Druze, the Christians and the Maronites, and, to a lesser extent, the Sunnis, are all united against what they perceive as a common enemy, it is impossible to know if this unity will continue once Syria leaves, thus creating a power vacuum. This is why not all of the pro-Syria protesters are Hezbollah supporters or even Shia. Some Palestinians, for example, want Syrian troops to stay, simply because they fear another civil war as a result of the Syrian departure.

So before the world starts patting the Bush administration on the back, we should stop to reflect on the causes, and more important the consequences, of the current events in the Middle East.


Taking off our glasses

This remains true for Iraq and is equally true for the potential hornet's nest that is Lebanon. I would like to hope that the Lebanese have finally renounced sectarian violence after 15 years of civil war and almost as many years of peace, and that the power vacuum left by the departing Syrians might be filled by a more democratic representation of the people. I'd like to hope that the Palestinians will be afforded the same rights as the other groups in Lebanon, and that the country will finally be mature enough to see past the sectarian politics of the "confessional system," leaving people free to vote for policies instead of religions.

Likewise, I hope that Afghanistan will be able to stabilize itself with the help of the West as well as that of the Middle East. And I hope that Palestine and Israel will come to a peaceful and democratic conclusion to the past violence, and that Iraqis will exercise their will with voting booths instead of car bombs. (Incidentally, a referendum on the American military presence would be an excellent start.) I hope that women and men in Egypt and Saudi Arabia will get a real chance to vote for what they believe in and that if given that chance, they will not vote to abolish democracy.

But I?m not so sure that these hopes are realistic; I'm afraid that some of them, if not most of them, are premature. So, in the meantime, we should stop counting our chicks before they hatch and instead start protecting the eggs. This means trying to understand the region and, to my mind, admitting that maybe democracy can't be exported like Coca-Cola or dropped attached to smart bombs. Democracy must be grown at home, and to do so, the soil needs to be tended to and the seeds watered with care. This means acknowledging and supporting the democratic movements that have sprouted through the cracks of the authoritarian asphalt, like the Palestinian elections in 1996; Qatar's independent media and 1999 elections for the Municipal Council; and Bahrain's 2003 Advisory Council elections in which six women were elected. In all three of these elections, both men and women were allowed to vote.

Another important way for the West to support homegrown democracy is to help independent local media outlets in the region. And in order to do this, the US, in particular, needs to admit that while it regularly receives harsh criticism from the Qatari television outlet, Al Jazeera, so do the governments of Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Algeria and the Palestinian Authority, amongst others. In the end, offending governments is sometimes the sign of a strong independent media. So rather than bombing the Qatari news channel, as a Pentagon spokesman admitted the US had done in Afghanistan, and pressuring Doha into selling the station, the US should be trying to support more independent voices in the region like Al Jazeera.

Supporting democracy also means supporting the right to true self-determination in the countries that have been objects of the Bush administration's nation-building projects ? even if the Iraqis vote the US forces, military bases and all, out for good. It means using American power evenhandedly and standing up for real freedom and democracy, even when it might not be convenient for short-term American self-interest, as in Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, true democracy in the Middle East requires the West, and especially the US, to take off its rose colored glasses when looking at the region. The US should have known that it would not be greeted with open arms in Iraq and that the occupation, and all the things that have come with it, would quickly turn many Iraqis against America. The US should also know that any belligerent behavior or rhetoric toward Iran will only result in an across-the-board nuclear solidarity throughout the Islamic Republic. And finally, the US should know that Lebanon is a nation walking on a tightrope, and that if it shakes the rope and disturbs the performer's delicate balance, it should make sure that there's a safety net below. One idea would be to support broadening the mandate of the UN forces already in Lebanon, and filling their ranks with troops from countries seen as being neutral in the situation -- Scandinavian countries, for example -- in order to diffuse any potential conflict between the different sects.

It's too soon to say what the long-term effects of the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq will be, but one thing is sure: the Middle East was not an object at rest, which the US hurtled toward democracy with strong but clumsy hands. The region had already begun its slow and uphill journey toward freedom in places like Qatar, Bahrain and Palestine, and whether this movement has been helped or hindered by American intervention remains to be seen. The important thing is for the US to be evenhanded and realistic, knowing that there is only so much it can do with its already tarnished legitimacy, which resulted from its bogus rationale for war in Iraq and its subsequent utilization of torture. It's better to be pleasantly surprised if the worst-case scenario doesn't come true than to have our rose colored glasses blown off our smug, self-righteous faces by a volley of car bombs.

For the second time in ten years, the village of Qana, where Jesus is said to have turned water into wine, was shelled by Israel. In 1996, during Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath, more than 100 Lebanese civilians were killed when the UN installation was shelled.

Again this week, the UN installation was shelled, after repeated pleas from UN observers to Israel to stop the strikes. This time around 60 civilians died, including 37 children.

This is also the second time in this war that Israel has hit UN outposts. Perhaps it's paranoia, which seems almost contagious in the region, but it's harder and harder for me to believe that these were accidents.

I went to the Dead Sea and Mount Nemo yesterday.

Here are some pictures from Petra and Wadi Rum and Amman:

This is from Petra, the pink city, built by the Nabateans and later annexed by the Romans:


This is a picture of Wadi Rum, where Lawrence of Arabia was based during the Arab Revolt of 1917-18:



This is downtown Amman, where a woman is selling ducks, chickens and baby chicks, the last of which have been dyed, presumably so that children will get their parents to buy them one. From what I saw, this worked, because this woman sold several chicks while I was there, whereas the woman down the street with plain yellow chicks wasn't selling any at all:

I just got back from Petra, Wadi Rum and Aqaba. I'm very tired now, but tomorrow, I'll write a little about it and upload a couple of pictures, insh'allah.

If you've ever seen the last Indiana Jones movie, you've seen the treasury at Petra...

There's been no news about Amal or a negotiation for the captured Israeli troops. There has been more and more talk about a multinational force, but in order to patrol the border and disarm Hizbollah, it would have to be enormous and belligerant.

Forcefully trying to disarm Hizbollah seems foolish, and if this is attempted by foreign troops, they will quickly find themselves in a hostile quagmire.

If Hizbollah is to be disarmed, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that would include regularizing the border between Israel and Lebanon, especially the Shebba Farms that Israel still occupies; prisoner exchanges; and folding Hizbollah forces into a national Lebanese army under the control of Beirut.

According to my sources, Condoleeza Rice has just arrived in Beirut, which is suprising since she was scheduled to only visit Israel. We'll see if anything comes of her visit...

Since this war started, I've been afraid of an escalation involving Syria. In the last few days, it's seemed that things will either get much better or much worse in the next couple of weeks:

Better: Hizbollah has reportedly given the two captured Israeli soldiers to the other Shia party, Amal, so that they can negotiate their release with Israel.

Olmert has said that Israel would accept an EU peacekeeping force.

Worse: Despite talk of an international force on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Israel continues to step up its attacks and creep farther and farther into Lebanon.

Syria has responded, saying, "If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within 20 kilometres of Damascus. What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

I hope that with the capture of two Hizbollah militants, Israel and Hizbollah can negotiate (directly, or through an intermediary like Amal or Germany) the release of prisoners on both sides as well as a general cease-fire.

Here is a piece in Ha'aretz that lays things out for Israeli readers:

This war must be stopped now and immediately. From the start it was unnecessary, even if its excuse was justified, and now is the time to end it. Every day raises its price for no reason, taking a toll in blood that gives Israel nothing tangible in return....

Israel went into the campaign on justified grounds and with foul means. It claims it has declared war on Hezbollah but, in practice, it is destroying Lebanon. It has gotten most of what it could have out of this war. The aerial "target bank" has mostly been covered. The air force could continue to sow destruction in the residential neighborhoods and empty offices and could also continue dropping dozens of tons of bombs on real or imagined bunkers and kill innocent Lebanese, but nothing good will come of it.

And in a wonderful little piece by Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert on casting the first stone, he shows that humans instinctively think of their actions as consequences of another's provocation and nearly always underestimate the strength of their response (it's worth reading in its entirety to see the experiments used):

After all, it is wrong to punch anyone except a puncher, and our language even has special words -- like "retaliation" and "retribution" and "revenge" -- whose common prefix is meant to remind us that a punch thrown second is legally and morally different than a punch thrown first.

That's why participants in every one of the globe's intractable conflicts -- from Ireland to the Middle East -- offer the even-numberedness of their punches as grounds for exculpation.

The problem with the principle of even-numberedness is that people count differently. Every action has a cause and a consequence: something that led to it and something that followed from it. But research shows that while people think of their own actions as the consequences of what came before, they think of other people's actions as the causes of what came later....

Examples aren't hard to come by. Shiites seek revenge on Sunnis for the revenge they sought on Shiites; Irish Catholics retaliate against the Protestants who retaliated against them; and since 1948, it's hard to think of any partisan in the Middle East who has done anything but play defense. In each of these instances, people on one side claim that they are merely responding to provocation and dismiss the other side's identical claim as disingenuous spin. But research suggests that these claims reflect genuinely different perceptions of the same bloody conversation....

If the first principle of legitimate punching is that punches must be even-numbered, the second principle is that an even-numbered punch may be no more forceful than the odd-numbered punch that preceded it. Legitimate retribution is meant to restore balance, and thus an eye for an eye is fair, but an eye for an eyelash is not. When the European Union condemned Israel for bombing Lebanon in retaliation for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, it did not question Israel's right to respond, but rather, its "disproportionate use of force." It is O.K. to hit back, just not too hard.

Research shows that people have as much trouble applying the second principle as the first. ...

Research teaches us that our reasons and our pains are more palpable, more obvious and real, than are the reasons and pains of others. This leads to the escalation of mutual harm, to the illusion that others are solely responsible for it and to the belief that our actions are justifiable responses to theirs.

Alan Dershiwitz has a disgusting piece in the Los Angeles Times in which he argues that many of the civilians in Lebanon and Palestine are getting what they deserve. He argues for a "continuum of civilianality," which would make many civilians fair game for Israeli strikes:

The Israeli army has given well-publicized notice to civilians to leave those areas of southern Lebanon that have been turned into war zones. Those who voluntarily remain behind have become complicit. Some -- those who cannot leave on their own -- should be counted among the innocent victims.

Why would people stay in the areas being bombarded by the Israelis? Many have no place to go; in the south, most of the bridges have been destroyed, trapping many families in their towns; and since Israel has been bombing civilian convoys, many are afraid to leave. And for good reason:

On Sunday [the Shaito family] gave up their stand, and all 18 members crammed into the family's white Mazda minivan. They planned to head north toward the relative safety of Beirut.

Within minutes they became casualties of Israel's 12-day-old bombardment of southern Lebanon, which the Israelis say they will continue indefinitely to destroy the military abilities of Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group. By the Lebanese official count, Israel's attacks have killed more than 380 Lebanese.

An Israeli rocket, which Lebanese officials said was likely fired from a helicopter, slammed into the center of the Shaitos' van as it sped round a bend a few miles west of their village, and the van crashed into a hillside. Three occupants were killed: an uncle, Mohammad; the grandmother, Nazira; and a Syrian man who had guarded their home. The missile also critically wounded Mrs. Shaito and her sister. Eleven others suffered less severe wounds.

"They said leave, and that's what we did," said Musbah Shaito, another uncle, as his niece, Heba, 16, cried hysterically behind him for her dead father, whose head was nearly blown off. This reporter watched as paramedics struggled to remove the dead from the van, but soon gave up, as an Israeli drone hovered overhead.

"This is what we got for listening to them," Mr. Shaito said, speaking of the Israelis.

This is what Mr Dershowitz's cold calculus means in human terms. That same day, Israel reported that they had hit "approximately 20 vehicles" suspected of "serving the terror organization in the launching of missiles at Israel, and were recognized fleeing from or staying at missile-launching areas."

Read that again. These vehicles were either fleeing or staying, so they were hit. These civilians were obviously "complicit," according to Alan Dershiwitz.

I arrived last night in Amman to my friend's house, where I've been received in the Arabic tradition, that is to say with open arms and unlimited hospitality. I'll be figuring out my ticket back to Paris and should be back in France in the next week or so.

Yesterday was a bloody day for Lebanon, even more so than "usual." At least 55 Lebanese civilians were killed in Israeli attacks, bringing the toll up to over 300. The Israelis also attacked Achrifieh, which is a chic Christian neighborhood of Beirut.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, has spoken out agains the assaults by Israel and Hizbollah:

Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians... Similarly, the bombardment of sites with alleged military significance, but resulting invariably in the killing of innocent civilians, is unjustifiable.

Responding to complaints that Israel has been using disproportionate force, Dan Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador to the UN, had the following to say: "You're damn right we are."

In other news, The New York Times published a letter to the editor that I sent them the other day.

I've been told that El Pais linked to my blog, but I haven't been able to find it, so a link would be appreciated.

An Australian friend of mine who has stayed in Beirut is also keeping a blog. You can check it out here.

I arrived safely last night to Damascus, and UNRWA has welcomed me with open arms. For one reason or another, the convoy split at the Syrian border, with the World Bank bus and one or two other buses going to the Dead Sea. I was told by UNDP and UNRWA in Syria that there were no hotels at the Dead Sea, so I stayed here at the UNRWA training center in Damascus.

Representatives from UNHCR, UNRWA and UNDP are arranging for me to leave to Amman today, since it seems that my Syrian transit visa is only good for 24 hours. I will be staying with friends in Amman until I can arrange for a flight back to Paris, which will probably take a few days. I will check in with the Amman UNESCO office today or tomorrow morning at the latest.

I will give a more detailed account when I get to Amman.

With the help of my friends all over the world and some connections from work, I've been lucky enough to find a way out of the country in a UN convoy. My colleagues and friends at UNESCO especially, and some diplomats and friends from Iraq and Iceland, have been very helpful, and I appreciate this greatly. It is in situations like this that you realize how much your friends and family really care about you. My family has been worried sick but have done everything they can to help me leave.

So to everyone who has worried about me, made telephone calls and sent emails for me, given me advice, checked up, sent encouraging words or called just to say that they're thinking of me, thank you. Thank you very much.

I almost regret leaving, because many of my friends here cannot. I have the privilege of having the right color passport, or in the case of my Palestinian friends, of having a passport at all. So it is both with relief and with a heavy heart that I leave this city that I love so much and all of my friends here, whom I'll miss very much.

I'll probably spend most if not all of tomorrow in the bus or on the border tomorrow, but when I arrive in Amman, I'll post an update of the voyage.

I just ran into a woman and her 4 children who has just come from Tyre. The first thing she asked was whether there were bombs here too. She didn't speak any English (only Arabic and German), so I had to interpret in bad German for my friend who was trying to help her get in touch with the German embassy (she and her children are German citizens).

We gave her the number for the German embassy in Beirut and sent the Germans an email with her information so that she could get evacuated. She told me that she didn't care if she went to France or Italy or Germany or wherever, so long as her kids could get out of Lebanon. Tyre has been bombed many times in the last few days. She has a 2-month old baby in addition to her three other children children, who are 9, 8 and 5 years old.

My Dutch friend just crossed the Syrian border. She was stuck there for a while, because there were so many people crossing: Dutch, Brazilian, Czech and Swiss busses among others. She said that the road was fine and that all was calm, since the Israelis must know that a lot of foreign nationals are leaving by road.

I'm watching al-Jazeera, and they are reporting that Hizbollah has just downed an Israeli F-16.

People have been streaming in from the South and from Dahiye, the southern suburb of Beirut that's been continuously hit by the Israelis, so the building where I'm staying is getting fuller and fuller. At all hours of the night, there are groups of people sitting in the hallways smoking or talking or worrying.

I haven't gone into Dahiye, but a friend who lives there has told me what it looks like. Here are some pictures from the Times:

The American embassy is a mess this morning. They would not let anyone inside the embassy; instead, they handed out registration forms and a list of things to bring in a "small bag" in an evacuation. We were told that "hopefully" there would be an evacuation this week, probably to Cyprus, however, they did not know how. To evacuate, it is necessary to pay, but if you don't have enough money, you must sign a promissory note. The rules for who can evacuate are this: American citizens only. If your children are not citizens, they can come, so long as they are minors. Non-American parents who have children (minors) that are American nationals must choose which parent will go with the children and which will stay. Green card holders cannot go. Non-American spouses of American citizens cannot go. Families will be split up.

The French are not splitting up families and have already started their evacuation. French residents, myself included, are not allowed to go. It is unclear if they are leaving by air, land or sea, but I don't think that it's by sea. The Dutch left this morning by bus to Aleppo. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that the Italians are stuck in a bus, because they cannot leave by sea due to the Israeli shelling of the ports. I'm not sure if they are stuck at a port or if they detoured from the port and are trying to leave by land now. Two British warships arrived last night, although they have not called my friend with a British passport. There is no word from the Australian embassy, and the Jordanians evacuated by bus several days ago, although a Jordanian friend of mine missed that bus, because she has two passports and was not registered with the Jordanians.

UNESCO is planning on evacuating people out of Beirut to the city of Jbeil (Byblos), but there is no word on leaving Lebanon.

It seems like none of the Western countries were able to negotiate safe passage by sea with the Israelis, which is highly surprising but would explain why the Israelis decided to hit so many ports this weekend. The word is that 8 Canadians were killed last night, although again, it's impossible for me to confirm this.

I am thinking about taking advantage of the lull in attacks on the northern road into Syria to try to get to the border and bribe my way into a transit visa so that I can get to Turkey. A Dutch friend of mine who evacuated this morning with her compatriots told me that the road was passable. Prices seem to be dropping a bit for taxis, since the Israelis have taken a break from bombing the roads, so it looks like a taxi to Tripoli would be around $100, and probably a similar price for the rest of the trip to Syria. Once inside Syria, the prices should be normal, which is to say cheap. From the Turkish border, I could stay with friends in Mersin and then make my way to Istanbul, where I have friends and could negotiate a flight to Paris with one of the two Turkish Airways tickets that I have. I don't really fancy waiting a week or more for the Americans, and once in Cyprus, I'll be on my own, and I'm pretty sure that Turkish Airways does not fly to Cyprus.

I was called this morning at the school where I had taken my first Arabic class the morning Hizbollah attacked Israel. The woman from the school asked if I was leaving or not, so that they could try to organize themselves for the classes that had already begun. I told her that I was not sure when I would be leaving but that I was pretty sure that I would not be continuing my classes with them. She told me to be careful and said that she would pray for me to get out safely. Then she left me with a touching but disconcerting request: "Please pray for my country." I can't remember the last time I prayed, but I said I would.

Apparently the US is sending an "assessment team" to Beirut, which may or may not have already arrived. This is the email (they still haven't managed to get with the program and start sending text messages instead of emails) they sent me today:

The US Department of State and the US Department of Defense continue working on a plan to help American citizens who wish to depart Lebanon to leave in a secure and orderly manner. To assist in the development of that operation, the U.S. Government is sending an assessment team to Beirut to facilitate the safe departure of Americans who wish to leave.

The Embassy is open and will remain open at this time in support of American citizens in Lebanon. American citizens may register by contacting the Embassy in Beirut directly, or through the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs registration site at http://travelregistration.state.gov. For updated information, visit the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs website at http://travel.state.gov.

Updated information on travel and security in Lebanon may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States, or, from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. Additional information, as it becomes available will be released via the media, Embassy warden announcements and on the Department and Embassy websites.

I'll try to get aboard any evacuation ship to Cyprus I can, but there are scores of thousands of foreigners here, and any evacuation effort will most likely take several days, and families with children and medical cases will be the first to leave. I'll sign the promissory note saying that I'll pay the government back, but I still find it scandalous.

I'm a little worried about how much I'll be able to take back with me. I've got a lot of books for my thesis, which I'm supposed to defend in September. But what I'm really worried about are friends of mine who cannot leave Lebanon. Many have headed for towns in the mountains, but it's hard to say how safe (and for how long) these places will end up being.

Otherwise, I've been staying away from the news today, reading and listening to music. I did go down to al Manara (the lighthouse), which was hit by Israel yesterday and is about a 7-10 minute walk from my place. I was actually surprised that the lighthouse was not more damaged (only the top seemed to be damaged). Here's what it looks like:



My friend is going back to what's left of his neighborhood in Dahiye (the residential suburb being called a "Hizbollah stronghold" where Hizbollah's offices are). He's going to try to take some pictures, which I'll try to post here.

Otherwise, here is an account of what's happening here by Robert Fisk, who lives in Beirut.

Here is an interesting interview with the co-director of an American NGO that actually talks with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran.

While I was buying a cheese and zataar manouche today, a guy came up and gave this flyer to a friend with me:



The snake in the corner is Nasrallah, and the text says, The resistance defends the nation? The nation is sacrificed by the resistance... (al maqawama tahmi wattan? al wattan tahiya al maqawama...)

We passed the flyer around so that everyone could see, then two Lebanese officers from the police station came by and asked my friend for his paper, which he took to mean papers, starting to get out his passport. They said no, and told him that they wanted to see the flyer. They inspected it and then asked him where it came from. A few minutes later, a young kid about ten years old came up and asked to see it too. Then the guy who gave us the flyer came back with more, passing them out. He and his friends started loudly discussing how the Lebanese people didn't need Hizbollah.

It's hard to say if they were sincere, because there was a police station within earshot. They could have been trying to find people with anti-Hizbollah sentiments, because after all, the other day, Nasrallah did say, in a pronouncement that would make Bush proud: if you're against us, you're against Lebanon.

I meant to post this last night, but I was too tired. This is a picture of Bliss Street, the main drag for students at the American University of Beirut in Hamra. On Friday and Saturday nights, it is usually packed with young people having food at the local diners Zataar wa Zeit (Zataar and Oil) and B to B (Breakfast to Breakfast) after a night of dancing.

To give you an idea of how things have slowed down here, there was no one there last night, and no cars either:

I registered with the French embassy as a resident of Paris today and then decided to go for lunch and a coffee. As I was having a beer (instead of a coffee), my friends and I heard an explosion that sounded louder and closer than they have so far. It turns out that the Israelis have bombed Beirut's main port and the neighborhood of al Manara, which is on the coast and about a ten minute walk from my place here.

The ports of Jounieh, Jbeil (Byblos) and Tripoli (all north of Beirut) were also hit. As I write, all of these places are being hit again. The Israelis are not really discriminating based on sect; they are bombing all of Lebanon's infrastructure, making good on their promise to set Lebanon back 20 years.

Balbaak was also hit. The house of a leader in Hizbollah was hit, but it's unclear if he was harmed or not.

The word out at all of the European embassies is that the European, American, Canadian, British and Australian embassies are going to start evacuating by boat to Cyprus starting on Monday. However, I'm not sure how we're supposed to board these boats if the Israelis keep bombing all the ports in the area.

A lot of people are still trying to leave by car, but the roads to Syria are very dangerous, because the Israelis are continually bombing them. Normally a taxi to Damascus costs about $15 or $20; yesterday, people were paying $200 to $300; and today, people are paying between $800 and $1,000 per person.

UPDATE: They just hit the port (or maybe Manara) again, and perhaps I'm just being paranoid, but I have the feeling that the Israelis are doing this to make it more difficult for Westerners to leave...

I've been pretty disappointed with the US Government in general and the Embassy here in Beirut in particular. They've been keeping office hours (when I called them right after the airport was bombed, they said to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open), with the exception of being open today, and have been less than helpful in general.

I registered with them, and they've been sending me "Warden Messages," by email. I've yet to receive any phone messages or calls, so I'm not sure what those who don't have access to email are supposed to do. In any case, I received a message about a "repatriation" plan to a neighboring country (most likely, a boat to Cyprus). I was suprised to find out that this service is not free. Out of a 7-line message from the State Department, 4 lines are about paying them back for this service rendered:

The Department of State reminds American citizens that the U.S. government does not provide no-cost transportation but does have the authority to provide repatriation loans to those in financial need. For the portion of your trip directly handled by the U.S. Government we will ask you to sign a promissory note and we will bill you at a later date. In a subsequent message, when we have specific details about the transporation arrangments, we will inform you about the costs you will incur. We will also work with commercial aircraft to ensure that they have adequate flights to help you depart Cyprus and connect to your final destination.

In lighter news, this dangerous militant, Abu Biss al Bussy Qatti, was found hiding in our bathroom, curled up next to the bidet:

According to al Manar, Israel has confirmed the sinking of one of their shiups off the coast of Lebanon. Nasrallah, after surviving an Israeli attack unhurt, is speaking, and he is saying that he does not believe in an international community and that he is sorry for the loss of Lebanese lives. He is calling on the Lebanese people to go take a look at the sinking ship before it is submerged in the Mediterannean. He is saying that like before (when Hezbollah forced Israel out of southern Lebanon in 2000), the Lebanese people will prevail.

His message to Israel: "Your new government is incompetent, does not know how to measure proportionality and is very weak and inexperienced. ... When you hit Beirut, we will hit Haifa. When you hit Dahiye, we will hit Haifa. ... We can reach Haifa, and what's after Haifa and what's after what's after Haifa."

UPDATE: The Israelis are claiming that the warship was "slightly damaged." Al Jazeera is saying that Hezbollah has sunk the ship. Lebanese forces are, according to Al Jazeera, "fending off amphibious Israeli forces" off the coast of Saida.

The strike on the electricity transformers has taken out electricity in all of Beirut. I didn't notice at first, because I was at a friend's place, and there's a generator in the apartment building. The hallways of the building have been frantic since the bombings early this morning at around 3 or 4 a.m. People were leaving, but I think that a lot of people are coming back after the electricity went out in the city, since there's a generator. I ran into a family of American Arabs from Michigan in the lobby of the apartment building, who has just arrived in Lebanon for work. Their family lives in Baalbek and the south, so they don't have anywhere to go, since both areas are being shelled by the Israelis.

Things are tense here in the city, because it's hard to sleep with the shelling during the night and then it's disconcerting that the electricity is out now, also. Everyone has been really helpful and nice, worrying about me since I'm foreign. I think I will continue staying at my friend's place, if only because they have a generator, which means that the AC will be working.

Some people are getting really worried about this spreading to Syria, and I think that they're right to worry about that. I'm afraid that the Syrians will do something stupid, and that the Israelis will start bombing Damascus. Israel has already retreated troops from Gaza, but this is obviously so that they can reinforce the reserves in Lebanon, and probably get ready to hit Syria. Damascus, I think, believes that they have Teheran's support, but it wouldn't surprise me if Iran stays out of this one, particularly if Syria hits Israel first. The Iranians know that if they get overtly involved, then the US will use that as an excuse to start the regime changes in Damascus and Tehran that they've been hoping for.

There are some who think that the UN will be able to broker a cease-fire this weekend, but I'm not very optimistic, particularly if Annan's envoys focus their efforts on the Lebanese government instead of going directly to Nasrallah. At this point, it seems unlikely that either Israel or Hezbollah will be willing to back down any time soon. I predict that if and when this spreads to Syria, Western governments will start evacuating their nationals.

I'm more awake now after a couple of hours of sleep. It looks like what woke me up this morning was the tail end of last night's attack this morning. Saida was shelled last night from the sea, while Dahiye (southern suburb of Beirut controlled by Hizbollah) was hit again, along with the road to Damascus and the airport.

Dan Halutz, chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, has said that Israel will "take Lebanon back 20 years." Beirut in 1986 was not a good place to be. If you have any doubts about that, a quick look at Robert Fisk's journalism from the period will change your mind.

The electricity went out earlier this morning, but only for a minute or two. I'm a little worried about the Israelis are going to start destroying Lebanon's infrastructure, which would mean that I'd be without electricity.

I went out for a drink last night, where I ran into someone from the British embassy. A discussion with him did not really make me feel any better. He was telling me how many British citizens here have this idea that there must be Black Hawks poised to break the blockade and evacuate the crown's own. This is not the case. At least not yet. All of the embassies that I've spoken to (US, French and UK) have said that the main course of action now is to just wait and see, trying to stay away from areas that might be subject to Israeli shelling. He also told me that travelling to Damascus was a bad idea, since people were driving like fools trying to get to the border, and there's a chance that the Syrians might turn you back anyway, depending on your passport. Last night's attack on the road to Syria showed that his advice and my gut feeling against Syria were indeed correct.

Looking at the western press, there's something that keeps bothering me. I keep hearing that a Hizbollah stronghold has been targeted by Israel. That's one way of putting it. Another would be the residential Shi'ite suburb of Beirut where Hizbollah has a lot of support, as well as their offices and television station. I can't help but think that people hear "Hizbollah stronghold" and imagine some sort of a militarty base. This is not the case. Dahiye is a residential suburb where families live and children go to school. Likewise in the south of the country. On one of the bridges that was bombed in the south, you can see the skid marks of a car that didn't stop in time after the explosion. The car, and everyone in it, fell 50 feet to the ground.

These are the kinds of people that are being harmed:



I'm going to go out and get something to eat, but in the meantime, looking at some of the consequences of this conflict is a good idea.

It's a quarter to five, and I just woke up. I thought I heard a loud noise but then wasn't sure. Now I'm sure there was an explosion. It sounds like neighbors pulling down their garage door fast. I'm pretty sure that it sounds like that, because it's not very close, because I can't see anything, except for people waking up to go outside and look around. I assume that the Israelis have hit Dahiye again, the Shi'ite suburb to the south of the airport. I'm watching al-Jazeera now, and it's showing the bomb scene in Beirut (or maybe it was just a sonic boom?), but I can't make out the neighborhood, because my Arabic isn't good enough to keep up with the scrolling headlines. There is a picture of a young man in his early twenties or late teens. He's covered in blood, but he seems to be unhurt, so it's hard to tell if it's someone else's blood or if it's his.

I'm sure that the news will get to the English language channels in a few hours. Last night, the airport was hit again. Other targets include the main road from the airport to the south and the road from Beirut to Damascus. I don't know if any people were killed on the way to Damascus, but Israel has confirmed hitting the road five times, and I know a lot of people were taking that road, because it's pretty much the only way out of the country since the ports have been blockaded and the airport closed. Apparently the fuel stores at the Jiyyeh power plant south of the city was also hit.

All of the Israeli talking heads keep talking about cutting off supply lines for Syria, but this is absurd. We all know where Hizbollah's money and weapons come from: Syria. Hitting the airport and blockading the ports, effectively trapping everyone inside Lebanon, is meant to make a point to Beirut: look what we can do.

I think the latest attacks are over, so I'm going to try to go back to bed. I haven't gotten much sleep in the last day or two. Here's a map that shows (circled and in red) where I am in Beirut and where the airport is. Compared to American cities, or even Paris, Beirut is a small city.

I've packed up my things in case the worst happens and I need to leave Beirut in a hurry. I've also registered with the embassy, but they've not been very helpful and have given me no information whatsoever. (When I called this morning after the bombing of the airport, they told me to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open.)

It seems that Israel has blockaded all Lebanese ports, so the route that I was keeping in mind to Cyprus is closed. The only option now is at the Syrian border, but again, I'm hesitant to try that, because the borders are already packed and I have my doubts about the Syrians letting me into the country unless I'm part of an official foreign convoy.

Twenty-seven Lebanese people were killed in last night's and this morning's attacks, and from what I can see, an Israeli woman was killed last night by Hizbollah rocket attacks.

Beirut, or at least my neighborhood, Hamra, is calm. Classes were not cancelled at the Lebanese American University, which may or may not be a bellwether for the situation as a whole.

Last night I went to bed after no news here. Israel had bombed several cities in the south, including Nabatiya, the city where I spent last weekend swimming and enjoying the sun. I woke up this morning to a call from a friend's parents in Amman, who told us that Israel had just bombed the Bierut airport, which is now closed.

I called the US embassy, but they told me that they're closed and that I should call back at 8:30.

The Lebanese emvoy to the US, Farid Abboud, was recalled to Beirut for saying that Israel should exchange prisoners.

I haven't been able to get into Syria for the last few days, so I have a hard time believing that I'll be able to get into Damascus. The airport is the only real way out for me, unless I can take a boat from the north to Cyprus, where I could get a flight back to Paris.

Israel is saying that the airport is the hub for terrorist weapons, which is bullshit, because everything most likely comes through the Syrian ground border. This is to show Beirut that Israel means business. I hope that it's a bluff, and that this will be the only real attacks north of Hizbollah-controlled parts of the south. I also hope that there will not be inter-Lebanese fighting...

It seems that Hizbollah has attacked Israel and taken two soldiers. According to the CNN correspondant in Beirut, there are celabratory gunshots in the southern suburbs. I can't hear any, but then again, I'm in Hamra and not in the Shi'ite suburbs. And honestly, if I hadn't turned on the television, I wouldn't know that anything was happening.

I was supposed to go down to the south of Lebanon this weekend, but depending on how things play out in the next few days, I think I'll probably wait to see how things go before driving down there.

I know that it's easier for the IDF to attack Gaza than it is to launch a full attack against Lebanon (there have already been a few air strikes inside lebanese territory on Hizbollah targets), but I'm not terribly optimistic about Israel's response to such an attack, considering their response to the recent Hamas attack.

CNN seems intent on stressing the "celabratory gunfire in Beirut," which is misleading at best. The Beirut correspondant said that there was gunfire in the southern suburbs, which are bastions of Shi'ite Hezbollah supporters. From where I am, Hamra, which is the prodominantly Muslim neighborhood where the Lebanese American University and the American University in Beirut are, is calm and gunfire-free.

I spent Friday night and Saturday morning in a small oasis. A friend of a friend's parents own a beautiful house in the Shi'ite town Nabatiya. Driving into town, the streets were lined with pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah flags and pictures of Lebanese Shi'a martyrs. The Party of God's merchandise was on sale, including flags and t-shirts and even a kite.

But we were insulated from all this within the confines of a luxurious house, where we swam and drank mixed drinks to the sound of the evening call to prayer. Unfortunately, we had to leave early on Saturday morning, so I wasn't really able to explore the South, but I will return soon enough.

Sometimes it's interesting to go back and look at things you've written previously. Last night, I came across a piece on the Middle East (and Lebanon specifically) that I wrote when the US was patting itself on the back for pushing the region toward democracy.

Here it is:

Objects in Motion

January 2005

Reading the news in the English language world today gives one the impression that democracy is spreading like wildfire in the Middle East ? that "freedom is on the march." Even many of those against the war in Iraq are starting to think that although they don?t like President Bush's methods, it's hard to argue with results. Apparently, the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent toppling of its mustachioed tyrant have pushed the Arab world in the direction of democracy, and as any first year physics student will tell you, objects in motion tend to stay in motion. So, according to Newton's first law as applied to geopolitics, the Middle East was an object at rest, which would stay at rest until acted upon by an exterior force, that is to say, the United States.

Another part of Newton's law is that objects in motion tend to continue in a straight line. Thus set in motion towards democracy, the Middle East cannot help but continue this noble trajectory. So, we hear, Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq have all had democratic elections; Egypt and Saudi Arabia have begun to inch their way in democracy?s direction; and finally, the Lebanese population has decided to throw off the yoke of Syrian influence in order to fulfill its inevitable destiny of self-determination.

Recent Elections

Is this true? Has freedom been brought with cannons; has democracy been exported like processed goods? To be sure, the fall of the Taliban is a good start for Afghanistan; however, with the exception of Kabul, most of the country is currently in the hands of warlords and Taliban returnees. The west has a short attention span, and as a result, women are being forced to don their Burkahs again, and the opium trade is flourishing. The National Human Development Report, published this month by the United Nations Development Programme, describes Afghanistan as "a fragile nation still at odds if no longer at war with itself that could easily slip back into chaos and abject poverty."

Democracy's next stop is Palestine where the recent democratic elections saw the ascendance of Mr. Abbas, who was elected with a broad base of support from across the board. This, however, was due to Arafat's death, not the invasion of Iraq. Furthermore, although most Americans don?t know it, Palestinians have had democratic elections before. They were held in 1996, and Arafat won 88 percent of the vote. His opponent was a woman named Sahima Khalil who headed a local NGO. A total of 692 candidates ran for the 88 seats of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Which brings us to the elections in Iraq. While the elections were an enormous step for Iraqis, there were also enormous problems. Security was so bad that most of the candidates refused to campaign or even publicly admit to running for office for fear of assassination. While writing this, I learn that 47 people were killed by a suicide bomber in a Shiite Mosque in Mosul at a funeral, as was the Baghdad Chief of Police with his driver and guard in a separate incident. Add this to the 105 people killed two weeks ago outside a medical clinic in the town of Hillah, south of Baghdad, and democracy's victory dance seems somehow less convincing.

It's currently too early to know what to make of the political reforms in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Time will tell if Cairo's move to allow a multiparty presidential election is genuine or just window dressing designed to give the presidency to Mubarak's son Gamal. The amendment to Egypt's constitution does not set term limits (Mubarak, who is 76, is on his fourth term), and it remains to be seen if the banned Muslim Brotherhood, the largest Islamic group in the country, will be allowed to participate or if the government will release imprisoned opposition leaders like Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, who was arrested last January. Likewise, it is difficult to say whether the proposal for limited municipal elections in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh's promise that women will get to vote not this time, but next time, is genuine reform or a charade to smooth over relations with the West, and namely the US. Furthermore, it is difficult to say if the invasion of Iraq served as a catalyst for these proposed changes or if they occurred independent of (or even despite) American intervention.


Lebanon and the "Cedar Revolution"

As for Lebanon, images of Beirut's youth, both Muslim and Christian, banding together and waving cedar flags are comforting to the West, especially after last year's UN Security Council Resolution 1559 called for the Syrian government to withdraw its 14,000 troops and cease its interference in Lebanese affairs. The same resolution called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Shia Islamic party/militia accredited with pushing Israel out of Southern Lebanon. The opposition demonstrations, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami (who was reelected by the Parliament nine days later), drew immediate comparisons to the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, leading many in the western press to dub the protests the "Cedar Revolution" and give the credit to American intervention in Iraq. The truth, however, seems to be much more complicated.

Opposition to the current government in Beirut and its backers in Damascus, has been building for some time now. It followed the September 2004 move by Syria to influence the Lebanese National Assembly to amend the constitution to give pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud an additional three years in office, lengthening his mandate from six to nine years. This was the second time that Syria had pressured Lebanon's Parliament into making constitutional changes in favor of Lahoud, the first being in 1998 by allowing him to run for president immediately after resigning as the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Finally, former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who resigned in protest of the constitutional amendment in 2004, was killed in a car bombing last month. This is what sparked large demonstrations against the government and Syria in Beirut. It is true, however, that the US, along with France, supported the UN Security Council Resolution calling for the withdrawal of Syrian forces. But unless the assassination, which has been largely attributed to Syria by outsiders as well as the Lebanese opposition, was the work of the US, it's hard to say how the Bush administration can take all the credit for the Lebanese opposition movement.

Lebanese history and politics are very complicated, and the huge pro-Syria counter-protest organized by Hezbollah this week illustrated this fact. Lebanon, a country that is a little over two-thirds the size of Connecticut and has just under 4 million inhabitants, is highly sectarian. There are 17 officially recognized religions in the tiny country, and the government is based on what is called a sectarian balance. This means that the constitution stipulates the religion of the major office holders and the religious makeup of the Parliament. Concretely, this means that the president is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim and the position of Speaker of the Parliament is reserved for a Shia Muslim. Likewise, the Parliament itself is balanced along sectarian lines, with the 128 seats being split evenly between Christians and Muslims and being subdivided to allow for 27 seats each for Shia and Sunni Muslims and 8 and 2 seats for the Druze and Alawi Muslim sects, respectively. Of the 64 Christian seats, 34 are reserved for Maronites. Although there has not been an official census since 1932, about 59 percent of Lebanese citizens are thought to be Muslim.

In addition to the 17 sects, there are also as many as 1 million Syrian workers and about 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The Palestinians, a largely Sunni group that makes up over 10 percent of population in Lebanon, suffer from the delicate sectarian balancing act. Even those born in Lebanon are not granted Lebanese citizenship; they are barred from 73 job categories (including medicine, law and engineering), and are not allowed to own property. Unlike other foreigners in Lebanon, they are denied access to the public health system. Moreover, they are refused work permits and the right to own land. Ostensibly, this is in solidarity for the Palestinians' right to return to the occupied territories or within Israel, but in reality, it is more likely due to the fact that allowing Palestinians to participate in the running of the country would tip the balance in favor of the Muslims in general and the Sunni in particular.

This multifaceted mishmash that constitutes Lebanese society means that things are much more complex than the pictures of the "Cedar Revolution" let on. For starters, the Syrian force was installed in Lebanon for a reason: to end the civil war and stabilize the war-torn country. And while Damascus certainly takes advantage of its influence in Lebanon with less than altruistic intentions, it is unclear what a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would mean exactly. While the Druze, the Christians and the Maronites, and, to a lesser extent, the Sunnis, are all united against what they perceive as a common enemy, it is impossible to know if this unity will continue once Syria leaves, thus creating a power vacuum. This is why not all of the pro-Syria protesters are Hezbollah supporters or even Shia. Some Palestinians, for example, want Syrian troops to stay, simply because they fear another civil war as a result of the Syrian departure.

So before the world starts patting the Bush administration on the back, we should stop to reflect on the causes, and more important the consequences, of the current events in the Middle East.


Taking off our glasses

This remains true for Iraq and is equally true for the potential hornet's nest that is Lebanon. I would like to hope that the Lebanese have finally renounced sectarian violence after 15 years of civil war and almost as many years of peace, and that the power vacuum left by the departing Syrians might be filled by a more democratic representation of the people. I'd like to hope that the Palestinians will be afforded the same rights as the other groups in Lebanon, and that the country will finally be mature enough to see past the sectarian politics of the "confessional system," leaving people free to vote for policies instead of religions.

Likewise, I hope that Afghanistan will be able to stabilize itself with the help of the West as well as that of the Middle East. And I hope that Palestine and Israel will come to a peaceful and democratic conclusion to the past violence, and that Iraqis will exercise their will with voting booths instead of car bombs. (Incidentally, a referendum on the American military presence would be an excellent start.) I hope that women and men in Egypt and Saudi Arabia will get a real chance to vote for what they believe in and that if given that chance, they will not vote to abolish democracy.

But I?m not so sure that these hopes are realistic; I'm afraid that some of them, if not most of them, are premature. So, in the meantime, we should stop counting our chicks before they hatch and instead start protecting the eggs. This means trying to understand the region and, to my mind, admitting that maybe democracy can't be exported like Coca-Cola or dropped attached to smart bombs. Democracy must be grown at home, and to do so, the soil needs to be tended to and the seeds watered with care. This means acknowledging and supporting the democratic movements that have sprouted through the cracks of the authoritarian asphalt, like the Palestinian elections in 1996; Qatar's independent media and 1999 elections for the Municipal Council; and Bahrain's 2003 Advisory Council elections in which six women were elected. In all three of these elections, both men and women were allowed to vote.

Another important way for the West to support homegrown democracy is to help independent local media outlets in the region. And in order to do this, the US, in particular, needs to admit that while it regularly receives harsh criticism from the Qatari television outlet, Al Jazeera, so do the governments of Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Algeria and the Palestinian Authority, amongst others. In the end, offending governments is sometimes the sign of a strong independent media. So rather than bombing the Qatari news channel, as a Pentagon spokesman admitted the US had done in Afghanistan, and pressuring Doha into selling the station, the US should be trying to support more independent voices in the region like Al Jazeera.

Supporting democracy also means supporting the right to true self-determination in the countries that have been objects of the Bush administration's nation-building projects ? even if the Iraqis vote the US forces, military bases and all, out for good. It means using American power evenhandedly and standing up for real freedom and democracy, even when it might not be convenient for short-term American self-interest, as in Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, true democracy in the Middle East requires the West, and especially the US, to take off its rose colored glasses when looking at the region. The US should have known that it would not be greeted with open arms in Iraq and that the occupation, and all the things that have come with it, would quickly turn many Iraqis against America. The US should also know that any belligerent behavior or rhetoric toward Iran will only result in an across-the-board nuclear solidarity throughout the Islamic Republic. And finally, the US should know that Lebanon is a nation walking on a tightrope, and that if it shakes the rope and disturbs the performer's delicate balance, it should make sure that there's a safety net below. One idea would be to support broadening the mandate of the UN forces already in Lebanon, and filling their ranks with troops from countries seen as being neutral in the situation -- Scandinavian countries, for example -- in order to diffuse any potential conflict between the different sects.

It's too soon to say what the long-term effects of the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq will be, but one thing is sure: the Middle East was not an object at rest, which the US hurtled toward democracy with strong but clumsy hands. The region had already begun its slow and uphill journey toward freedom in places like Qatar, Bahrain and Palestine, and whether this movement has been helped or hindered by American intervention remains to be seen. The important thing is for the US to be evenhanded and realistic, knowing that there is only so much it can do with its already tarnished legitimacy, which resulted from its bogus rationale for war in Iraq and its subsequent utilization of torture. It's better to be pleasantly surprised if the worst-case scenario doesn't come true than to have our rose colored glasses blown off our smug, self-righteous faces by a volley of car bombs.

For the second time in ten years, the village of Qana, where Jesus is said to have turned water into wine, was shelled by Israel. In 1996, during Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath, more than 100 Lebanese civilians were killed when the UN installation was shelled.

Again this week, the UN installation was shelled, after repeated pleas from UN observers to Israel to stop the strikes. This time around 60 civilians died, including 37 children.

This is also the second time in this war that Israel has hit UN outposts. Perhaps it's paranoia, which seems almost contagious in the region, but it's harder and harder for me to believe that these were accidents.

I went to the Dead Sea and Mount Nemo yesterday.

Here are some pictures from Petra and Wadi Rum and Amman:

This is from Petra, the pink city, built by the Nabateans and later annexed by the Romans:


This is a picture of Wadi Rum, where Lawrence of Arabia was based during the Arab Revolt of 1917-18:



This is downtown Amman, where a woman is selling ducks, chickens and baby chicks, the last of which have been dyed, presumably so that children will get their parents to buy them one. From what I saw, this worked, because this woman sold several chicks while I was there, whereas the woman down the street with plain yellow chicks wasn't selling any at all:

I just got back from Petra, Wadi Rum and Aqaba. I'm very tired now, but tomorrow, I'll write a little about it and upload a couple of pictures, insh'allah.

If you've ever seen the last Indiana Jones movie, you've seen the treasury at Petra...

There's been no news about Amal or a negotiation for the captured Israeli troops. There has been more and more talk about a multinational force, but in order to patrol the border and disarm Hizbollah, it would have to be enormous and belligerant.

Forcefully trying to disarm Hizbollah seems foolish, and if this is attempted by foreign troops, they will quickly find themselves in a hostile quagmire.

If Hizbollah is to be disarmed, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that would include regularizing the border between Israel and Lebanon, especially the Shebba Farms that Israel still occupies; prisoner exchanges; and folding Hizbollah forces into a national Lebanese army under the control of Beirut.

According to my sources, Condoleeza Rice has just arrived in Beirut, which is suprising since she was scheduled to only visit Israel. We'll see if anything comes of her visit...

Since this war started, I've been afraid of an escalation involving Syria. In the last few days, it's seemed that things will either get much better or much worse in the next couple of weeks:

Better: Hizbollah has reportedly given the two captured Israeli soldiers to the other Shia party, Amal, so that they can negotiate their release with Israel.

Olmert has said that Israel would accept an EU peacekeeping force.

Worse: Despite talk of an international force on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Israel continues to step up its attacks and creep farther and farther into Lebanon.

Syria has responded, saying, "If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within 20 kilometres of Damascus. What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

I hope that with the capture of two Hizbollah militants, Israel and Hizbollah can negotiate (directly, or through an intermediary like Amal or Germany) the release of prisoners on both sides as well as a general cease-fire.

Here is a piece in Ha'aretz that lays things out for Israeli readers:

This war must be stopped now and immediately. From the start it was unnecessary, even if its excuse was justified, and now is the time to end it. Every day raises its price for no reason, taking a toll in blood that gives Israel nothing tangible in return....

Israel went into the campaign on justified grounds and with foul means. It claims it has declared war on Hezbollah but, in practice, it is destroying Lebanon. It has gotten most of what it could have out of this war. The aerial "target bank" has mostly been covered. The air force could continue to sow destruction in the residential neighborhoods and empty offices and could also continue dropping dozens of tons of bombs on real or imagined bunkers and kill innocent Lebanese, but nothing good will come of it.

And in a wonderful little piece by Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert on casting the first stone, he shows that humans instinctively think of their actions as consequences of another's provocation and nearly always underestimate the strength of their response (it's worth reading in its entirety to see the experiments used):

After all, it is wrong to punch anyone except a puncher, and our language even has special words -- like "retaliation" and "retribution" and "revenge" -- whose common prefix is meant to remind us that a punch thrown second is legally and morally different than a punch thrown first.

That's why participants in every one of the globe's intractable conflicts -- from Ireland to the Middle East -- offer the even-numberedness of their punches as grounds for exculpation.

The problem with the principle of even-numberedness is that people count differently. Every action has a cause and a consequence: something that led to it and something that followed from it. But research shows that while people think of their own actions as the consequences of what came before, they think of other people's actions as the causes of what came later....

Examples aren't hard to come by. Shiites seek revenge on Sunnis for the revenge they sought on Shiites; Irish Catholics retaliate against the Protestants who retaliated against them; and since 1948, it's hard to think of any partisan in the Middle East who has done anything but play defense. In each of these instances, people on one side claim that they are merely responding to provocation and dismiss the other side's identical claim as disingenuous spin. But research suggests that these claims reflect genuinely different perceptions of the same bloody conversation....

If the first principle of legitimate punching is that punches must be even-numbered, the second principle is that an even-numbered punch may be no more forceful than the odd-numbered punch that preceded it. Legitimate retribution is meant to restore balance, and thus an eye for an eye is fair, but an eye for an eyelash is not. When the European Union condemned Israel for bombing Lebanon in retaliation for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, it did not question Israel's right to respond, but rather, its "disproportionate use of force." It is O.K. to hit back, just not too hard.

Research shows that people have as much trouble applying the second principle as the first. ...

Research teaches us that our reasons and our pains are more palpable, more obvious and real, than are the reasons and pains of others. This leads to the escalation of mutual harm, to the illusion that others are solely responsible for it and to the belief that our actions are justifiable responses to theirs.

Alan Dershiwitz has a disgusting piece in the Los Angeles Times in which he argues that many of the civilians in Lebanon and Palestine are getting what they deserve. He argues for a "continuum of civilianality," which would make many civilians fair game for Israeli strikes:

The Israeli army has given well-publicized notice to civilians to leave those areas of southern Lebanon that have been turned into war zones. Those who voluntarily remain behind have become complicit. Some -- those who cannot leave on their own -- should be counted among the innocent victims.

Why would people stay in the areas being bombarded by the Israelis? Many have no place to go; in the south, most of the bridges have been destroyed, trapping many families in their towns; and since Israel has been bombing civilian convoys, many are afraid to leave. And for good reason:

On Sunday [the Shaito family] gave up their stand, and all 18 members crammed into the family's white Mazda minivan. They planned to head north toward the relative safety of Beirut.

Within minutes they became casualties of Israel's 12-day-old bombardment of southern Lebanon, which the Israelis say they will continue indefinitely to destroy the military abilities of Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group. By the Lebanese official count, Israel's attacks have killed more than 380 Lebanese.

An Israeli rocket, which Lebanese officials said was likely fired from a helicopter, slammed into the center of the Shaitos' van as it sped round a bend a few miles west of their village, and the van crashed into a hillside. Three occupants were killed: an uncle, Mohammad; the grandmother, Nazira; and a Syrian man who had guarded their home. The missile also critically wounded Mrs. Shaito and her sister. Eleven others suffered less severe wounds.

"They said leave, and that's what we did," said Musbah Shaito, another uncle, as his niece, Heba, 16, cried hysterically behind him for her dead father, whose head was nearly blown off. This reporter watched as paramedics struggled to remove the dead from the van, but soon gave up, as an Israeli drone hovered overhead.

"This is what we got for listening to them," Mr. Shaito said, speaking of the Israelis.

This is what Mr Dershowitz's cold calculus means in human terms. That same day, Israel reported that they had hit "approximately 20 vehicles" suspected of "serving the terror organization in the launching of missiles at Israel, and were recognized fleeing from or staying at missile-launching areas."

Read that again. These vehicles were either fleeing or staying, so they were hit. These civilians were obviously "complicit," according to Alan Dershiwitz.

I arrived last night in Amman to my friend's house, where I've been received in the Arabic tradition, that is to say with open arms and unlimited hospitality. I'll be figuring out my ticket back to Paris and should be back in France in the next week or so.

Yesterday was a bloody day for Lebanon, even more so than "usual." At least 55 Lebanese civilians were killed in Israeli attacks, bringing the toll up to over 300. The Israelis also attacked Achrifieh, which is a chic Christian neighborhood of Beirut.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, has spoken out agains the assaults by Israel and Hizbollah:

Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians... Similarly, the bombardment of sites with alleged military significance, but resulting invariably in the killing of innocent civilians, is unjustifiable.

Responding to complaints that Israel has been using disproportionate force, Dan Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador to the UN, had the following to say: "You're damn right we are."

In other news, The New York Times published a letter to the editor that I sent them the other day.

I've been told that El Pais linked to my blog, but I haven't been able to find it, so a link would be appreciated.

An Australian friend of mine who has stayed in Beirut is also keeping a blog. You can check it out here.

I arrived safely last night to Damascus, and UNRWA has welcomed me with open arms. For one reason or another, the convoy split at the Syrian border, with the World Bank bus and one or two other buses going to the Dead Sea. I was told by UNDP and UNRWA in Syria that there were no hotels at the Dead Sea, so I stayed here at the UNRWA training center in Damascus.

Representatives from UNHCR, UNRWA and UNDP are arranging for me to leave to Amman today, since it seems that my Syrian transit visa is only good for 24 hours. I will be staying with friends in Amman until I can arrange for a flight back to Paris, which will probably take a few days. I will check in with the Amman UNESCO office today or tomorrow morning at the latest.

I will give a more detailed account when I get to Amman.

With the help of my friends all over the world and some connections from work, I've been lucky enough to find a way out of the country in a UN convoy. My colleagues and friends at UNESCO especially, and some diplomats and friends from Iraq and Iceland, have been very helpful, and I appreciate this greatly. It is in situations like this that you realize how much your friends and family really care about you. My family has been worried sick but have done everything they can to help me leave.

So to everyone who has worried about me, made telephone calls and sent emails for me, given me advice, checked up, sent encouraging words or called just to say that they're thinking of me, thank you. Thank you very much.

I almost regret leaving, because many of my friends here cannot. I have the privilege of having the right color passport, or in the case of my Palestinian friends, of having a passport at all. So it is both with relief and with a heavy heart that I leave this city that I love so much and all of my friends here, whom I'll miss very much.

I'll probably spend most if not all of tomorrow in the bus or on the border tomorrow, but when I arrive in Amman, I'll post an update of the voyage.

I just ran into a woman and her 4 children who has just come from Tyre. The first thing she asked was whether there were bombs here too. She didn't speak any English (only Arabic and German), so I had to interpret in bad German for my friend who was trying to help her get in touch with the German embassy (she and her children are German citizens).

We gave her the number for the German embassy in Beirut and sent the Germans an email with her information so that she could get evacuated. She told me that she didn't care if she went to France or Italy or Germany or wherever, so long as her kids could get out of Lebanon. Tyre has been bombed many times in the last few days. She has a 2-month old baby in addition to her three other children children, who are 9, 8 and 5 years old.

My Dutch friend just crossed the Syrian border. She was stuck there for a while, because there were so many people crossing: Dutch, Brazilian, Czech and Swiss busses among others. She said that the road was fine and that all was calm, since the Israelis must know that a lot of foreign nationals are leaving by road.

I'm watching al-Jazeera, and they are reporting that Hizbollah has just downed an Israeli F-16.

People have been streaming in from the South and from Dahiye, the southern suburb of Beirut that's been continuously hit by the Israelis, so the building where I'm staying is getting fuller and fuller. At all hours of the night, there are groups of people sitting in the hallways smoking or talking or worrying.

I haven't gone into Dahiye, but a friend who lives there has told me what it looks like. Here are some pictures from the Times:

The American embassy is a mess this morning. They would not let anyone inside the embassy; instead, they handed out registration forms and a list of things to bring in a "small bag" in an evacuation. We were told that "hopefully" there would be an evacuation this week, probably to Cyprus, however, they did not know how. To evacuate, it is necessary to pay, but if you don't have enough money, you must sign a promissory note. The rules for who can evacuate are this: American citizens only. If your children are not citizens, they can come, so long as they are minors. Non-American parents who have children (minors) that are American nationals must choose which parent will go with the children and which will stay. Green card holders cannot go. Non-American spouses of American citizens cannot go. Families will be split up.

The French are not splitting up families and have already started their evacuation. French residents, myself included, are not allowed to go. It is unclear if they are leaving by air, land or sea, but I don't think that it's by sea. The Dutch left this morning by bus to Aleppo. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that the Italians are stuck in a bus, because they cannot leave by sea due to the Israeli shelling of the ports. I'm not sure if they are stuck at a port or if they detoured from the port and are trying to leave by land now. Two British warships arrived last night, although they have not called my friend with a British passport. There is no word from the Australian embassy, and the Jordanians evacuated by bus several days ago, although a Jordanian friend of mine missed that bus, because she has two passports and was not registered with the Jordanians.

UNESCO is planning on evacuating people out of Beirut to the city of Jbeil (Byblos), but there is no word on leaving Lebanon.

It seems like none of the Western countries were able to negotiate safe passage by sea with the Israelis, which is highly surprising but would explain why the Israelis decided to hit so many ports this weekend. The word is that 8 Canadians were killed last night, although again, it's impossible for me to confirm this.

I am thinking about taking advantage of the lull in attacks on the northern road into Syria to try to get to the border and bribe my way into a transit visa so that I can get to Turkey. A Dutch friend of mine who evacuated this morning with her compatriots told me that the road was passable. Prices seem to be dropping a bit for taxis, since the Israelis have taken a break from bombing the roads, so it looks like a taxi to Tripoli would be around $100, and probably a similar price for the rest of the trip to Syria. Once inside Syria, the prices should be normal, which is to say cheap. From the Turkish border, I could stay with friends in Mersin and then make my way to Istanbul, where I have friends and could negotiate a flight to Paris with one of the two Turkish Airways tickets that I have. I don't really fancy waiting a week or more for the Americans, and once in Cyprus, I'll be on my own, and I'm pretty sure that Turkish Airways does not fly to Cyprus.

I was called this morning at the school where I had taken my first Arabic class the morning Hizbollah attacked Israel. The woman from the school asked if I was leaving or not, so that they could try to organize themselves for the classes that had already begun. I told her that I was not sure when I would be leaving but that I was pretty sure that I would not be continuing my classes with them. She told me to be careful and said that she would pray for me to get out safely. Then she left me with a touching but disconcerting request: "Please pray for my country." I can't remember the last time I prayed, but I said I would.

Apparently the US is sending an "assessment team" to Beirut, which may or may not have already arrived. This is the email (they still haven't managed to get with the program and start sending text messages instead of emails) they sent me today:

The US Department of State and the US Department of Defense continue working on a plan to help American citizens who wish to depart Lebanon to leave in a secure and orderly manner. To assist in the development of that operation, the U.S. Government is sending an assessment team to Beirut to facilitate the safe departure of Americans who wish to leave.

The Embassy is open and will remain open at this time in support of American citizens in Lebanon. American citizens may register by contacting the Embassy in Beirut directly, or through the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs registration site at http://travelregistration.state.gov. For updated information, visit the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs website at http://travel.state.gov.

Updated information on travel and security in Lebanon may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States, or, from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. Additional information, as it becomes available will be released via the media, Embassy warden announcements and on the Department and Embassy websites.

I'll try to get aboard any evacuation ship to Cyprus I can, but there are scores of thousands of foreigners here, and any evacuation effort will most likely take several days, and families with children and medical cases will be the first to leave. I'll sign the promissory note saying that I'll pay the government back, but I still find it scandalous.

I'm a little worried about how much I'll be able to take back with me. I've got a lot of books for my thesis, which I'm supposed to defend in September. But what I'm really worried about are friends of mine who cannot leave Lebanon. Many have headed for towns in the mountains, but it's hard to say how safe (and for how long) these places will end up being.

Otherwise, I've been staying away from the news today, reading and listening to music. I did go down to al Manara (the lighthouse), which was hit by Israel yesterday and is about a 7-10 minute walk from my place. I was actually surprised that the lighthouse was not more damaged (only the top seemed to be damaged). Here's what it looks like:



My friend is going back to what's left of his neighborhood in Dahiye (the residential suburb being called a "Hizbollah stronghold" where Hizbollah's offices are). He's going to try to take some pictures, which I'll try to post here.

Otherwise, here is an account of what's happening here by Robert Fisk, who lives in Beirut.

Here is an interesting interview with the co-director of an American NGO that actually talks with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran.

While I was buying a cheese and zataar manouche today, a guy came up and gave this flyer to a friend with me:



The snake in the corner is Nasrallah, and the text says, The resistance defends the nation? The nation is sacrificed by the resistance... (al maqawama tahmi wattan? al wattan tahiya al maqawama...)

We passed the flyer around so that everyone could see, then two Lebanese officers from the police station came by and asked my friend for his paper, which he took to mean papers, starting to get out his passport. They said no, and told him that they wanted to see the flyer. They inspected it and then asked him where it came from. A few minutes later, a young kid about ten years old came up and asked to see it too. Then the guy who gave us the flyer came back with more, passing them out. He and his friends started loudly discussing how the Lebanese people didn't need Hizbollah.

It's hard to say if they were sincere, because there was a police station within earshot. They could have been trying to find people with anti-Hizbollah sentiments, because after all, the other day, Nasrallah did say, in a pronouncement that would make Bush proud: if you're against us, you're against Lebanon.

I meant to post this last night, but I was too tired. This is a picture of Bliss Street, the main drag for students at the American University of Beirut in Hamra. On Friday and Saturday nights, it is usually packed with young people having food at the local diners Zataar wa Zeit (Zataar and Oil) and B to B (Breakfast to Breakfast) after a night of dancing.

To give you an idea of how things have slowed down here, there was no one there last night, and no cars either:

I registered with the French embassy as a resident of Paris today and then decided to go for lunch and a coffee. As I was having a beer (instead of a coffee), my friends and I heard an explosion that sounded louder and closer than they have so far. It turns out that the Israelis have bombed Beirut's main port and the neighborhood of al Manara, which is on the coast and about a ten minute walk from my place here.

The ports of Jounieh, Jbeil (Byblos) and Tripoli (all north of Beirut) were also hit. As I write, all of these places are being hit again. The Israelis are not really discriminating based on sect; they are bombing all of Lebanon's infrastructure, making good on their promise to set Lebanon back 20 years.

Balbaak was also hit. The house of a leader in Hizbollah was hit, but it's unclear if he was harmed or not.

The word out at all of the European embassies is that the European, American, Canadian, British and Australian embassies are going to start evacuating by boat to Cyprus starting on Monday. However, I'm not sure how we're supposed to board these boats if the Israelis keep bombing all the ports in the area.

A lot of people are still trying to leave by car, but the roads to Syria are very dangerous, because the Israelis are continually bombing them. Normally a taxi to Damascus costs about $15 or $20; yesterday, people were paying $200 to $300; and today, people are paying between $800 and $1,000 per person.

UPDATE: They just hit the port (or maybe Manara) again, and perhaps I'm just being paranoid, but I have the feeling that the Israelis are doing this to make it more difficult for Westerners to leave...

I've been pretty disappointed with the US Government in general and the Embassy here in Beirut in particular. They've been keeping office hours (when I called them right after the airport was bombed, they said to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open), with the exception of being open today, and have been less than helpful in general.

I registered with them, and they've been sending me "Warden Messages," by email. I've yet to receive any phone messages or calls, so I'm not sure what those who don't have access to email are supposed to do. In any case, I received a message about a "repatriation" plan to a neighboring country (most likely, a boat to Cyprus). I was suprised to find out that this service is not free. Out of a 7-line message from the State Department, 4 lines are about paying them back for this service rendered:

The Department of State reminds American citizens that the U.S. government does not provide no-cost transportation but does have the authority to provide repatriation loans to those in financial need. For the portion of your trip directly handled by the U.S. Government we will ask you to sign a promissory note and we will bill you at a later date. In a subsequent message, when we have specific details about the transporation arrangments, we will inform you about the costs you will incur. We will also work with commercial aircraft to ensure that they have adequate flights to help you depart Cyprus and connect to your final destination.

In lighter news, this dangerous militant, Abu Biss al Bussy Qatti, was found hiding in our bathroom, curled up next to the bidet:

According to al Manar, Israel has confirmed the sinking of one of their shiups off the coast of Lebanon. Nasrallah, after surviving an Israeli attack unhurt, is speaking, and he is saying that he does not believe in an international community and that he is sorry for the loss of Lebanese lives. He is calling on the Lebanese people to go take a look at the sinking ship before it is submerged in the Mediterannean. He is saying that like before (when Hezbollah forced Israel out of southern Lebanon in 2000), the Lebanese people will prevail.

His message to Israel: "Your new government is incompetent, does not know how to measure proportionality and is very weak and inexperienced. ... When you hit Beirut, we will hit Haifa. When you hit Dahiye, we will hit Haifa. ... We can reach Haifa, and what's after Haifa and what's after what's after Haifa."

UPDATE: The Israelis are claiming that the warship was "slightly damaged." Al Jazeera is saying that Hezbollah has sunk the ship. Lebanese forces are, according to Al Jazeera, "fending off amphibious Israeli forces" off the coast of Saida.

The strike on the electricity transformers has taken out electricity in all of Beirut. I didn't notice at first, because I was at a friend's place, and there's a generator in the apartment building. The hallways of the building have been frantic since the bombings early this morning at around 3 or 4 a.m. People were leaving, but I think that a lot of people are coming back after the electricity went out in the city, since there's a generator. I ran into a family of American Arabs from Michigan in the lobby of the apartment building, who has just arrived in Lebanon for work. Their family lives in Baalbek and the south, so they don't have anywhere to go, since both areas are being shelled by the Israelis.

Things are tense here in the city, because it's hard to sleep with the shelling during the night and then it's disconcerting that the electricity is out now, also. Everyone has been really helpful and nice, worrying about me since I'm foreign. I think I will continue staying at my friend's place, if only because they have a generator, which means that the AC will be working.

Some people are getting really worried about this spreading to Syria, and I think that they're right to worry about that. I'm afraid that the Syrians will do something stupid, and that the Israelis will start bombing Damascus. Israel has already retreated troops from Gaza, but this is obviously so that they can reinforce the reserves in Lebanon, and probably get ready to hit Syria. Damascus, I think, believes that they have Teheran's support, but it wouldn't surprise me if Iran stays out of this one, particularly if Syria hits Israel first. The Iranians know that if they get overtly involved, then the US will use that as an excuse to start the regime changes in Damascus and Tehran that they've been hoping for.

There are some who think that the UN will be able to broker a cease-fire this weekend, but I'm not very optimistic, particularly if Annan's envoys focus their efforts on the Lebanese government instead of going directly to Nasrallah. At this point, it seems unlikely that either Israel or Hezbollah will be willing to back down any time soon. I predict that if and when this spreads to Syria, Western governments will start evacuating their nationals.

I'm more awake now after a couple of hours of sleep. It looks like what woke me up this morning was the tail end of last night's attack this morning. Saida was shelled last night from the sea, while Dahiye (southern suburb of Beirut controlled by Hizbollah) was hit again, along with the road to Damascus and the airport.

Dan Halutz, chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, has said that Israel will "take Lebanon back 20 years." Beirut in 1986 was not a good place to be. If you have any doubts about that, a quick look at Robert Fisk's journalism from the period will change your mind.

The electricity went out earlier this morning, but only for a minute or two. I'm a little worried about the Israelis are going to start destroying Lebanon's infrastructure, which would mean that I'd be without electricity.

I went out for a drink last night, where I ran into someone from the British embassy. A discussion with him did not really make me feel any better. He was telling me how many British citizens here have this idea that there must be Black Hawks poised to break the blockade and evacuate the crown's own. This is not the case. At least not yet. All of the embassies that I've spoken to (US, French and UK) have said that the main course of action now is to just wait and see, trying to stay away from areas that might be subject to Israeli shelling. He also told me that travelling to Damascus was a bad idea, since people were driving like fools trying to get to the border, and there's a chance that the Syrians might turn you back anyway, depending on your passport. Last night's attack on the road to Syria showed that his advice and my gut feeling against Syria were indeed correct.

Looking at the western press, there's something that keeps bothering me. I keep hearing that a Hizbollah stronghold has been targeted by Israel. That's one way of putting it. Another would be the residential Shi'ite suburb of Beirut where Hizbollah has a lot of support, as well as their offices and television station. I can't help but think that people hear "Hizbollah stronghold" and imagine some sort of a militarty base. This is not the case. Dahiye is a residential suburb where families live and children go to school. Likewise in the south of the country. On one of the bridges that was bombed in the south, you can see the skid marks of a car that didn't stop in time after the explosion. The car, and everyone in it, fell 50 feet to the ground.

These are the kinds of people that are being harmed:



I'm going to go out and get something to eat, but in the meantime, looking at some of the consequences of this conflict is a good idea.

It's a quarter to five, and I just woke up. I thought I heard a loud noise but then wasn't sure. Now I'm sure there was an explosion. It sounds like neighbors pulling down their garage door fast. I'm pretty sure that it sounds like that, because it's not very close, because I can't see anything, except for people waking up to go outside and look around. I assume that the Israelis have hit Dahiye again, the Shi'ite suburb to the south of the airport. I'm watching al-Jazeera now, and it's showing the bomb scene in Beirut (or maybe it was just a sonic boom?), but I can't make out the neighborhood, because my Arabic isn't good enough to keep up with the scrolling headlines. There is a picture of a young man in his early twenties or late teens. He's covered in blood, but he seems to be unhurt, so it's hard to tell if it's someone else's blood or if it's his.

I'm sure that the news will get to the English language channels in a few hours. Last night, the airport was hit again. Other targets include the main road from the airport to the south and the road from Beirut to Damascus. I don't know if any people were killed on the way to Damascus, but Israel has confirmed hitting the road five times, and I know a lot of people were taking that road, because it's pretty much the only way out of the country since the ports have been blockaded and the airport closed. Apparently the fuel stores at the Jiyyeh power plant south of the city was also hit.

All of the Israeli talking heads keep talking about cutting off supply lines for Syria, but this is absurd. We all know where Hizbollah's money and weapons come from: Syria. Hitting the airport and blockading the ports, effectively trapping everyone inside Lebanon, is meant to make a point to Beirut: look what we can do.

I think the latest attacks are over, so I'm going to try to go back to bed. I haven't gotten much sleep in the last day or two. Here's a map that shows (circled and in red) where I am in Beirut and where the airport is. Compared to American cities, or even Paris, Beirut is a small city.

I've packed up my things in case the worst happens and I need to leave Beirut in a hurry. I've also registered with the embassy, but they've not been very helpful and have given me no information whatsoever. (When I called this morning after the bombing of the airport, they told me to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open.)

It seems that Israel has blockaded all Lebanese ports, so the route that I was keeping in mind to Cyprus is closed. The only option now is at the Syrian border, but again, I'm hesitant to try that, because the borders are already packed and I have my doubts about the Syrians letting me into the country unless I'm part of an official foreign convoy.

Twenty-seven Lebanese people were killed in last night's and this morning's attacks, and from what I can see, an Israeli woman was killed last night by Hizbollah rocket attacks.

Beirut, or at least my neighborhood, Hamra, is calm. Classes were not cancelled at the Lebanese American University, which may or may not be a bellwether for the situation as a whole.

Last night I went to bed after no news here. Israel had bombed several cities in the south, including Nabatiya, the city where I spent last weekend swimming and enjoying the sun. I woke up this morning to a call from a friend's parents in Amman, who told us that Israel had just bombed the Bierut airport, which is now closed.

I called the US embassy, but they told me that they're closed and that I should call back at 8:30.

The Lebanese emvoy to the US, Farid Abboud, was recalled to Beirut for saying that Israel should exchange prisoners.

I haven't been able to get into Syria for the last few days, so I have a hard time believing that I'll be able to get into Damascus. The airport is the only real way out for me, unless I can take a boat from the north to Cyprus, where I could get a flight back to Paris.

Israel is saying that the airport is the hub for terrorist weapons, which is bullshit, because everything most likely comes through the Syrian ground border. This is to show Beirut that Israel means business. I hope that it's a bluff, and that this will be the only real attacks north of Hizbollah-controlled parts of the south. I also hope that there will not be inter-Lebanese fighting...

It seems that Hizbollah has attacked Israel and taken two soldiers. According to the CNN correspondant in Beirut, there are celabratory gunshots in the southern suburbs. I can't hear any, but then again, I'm in Hamra and not in the Shi'ite suburbs. And honestly, if I hadn't turned on the television, I wouldn't know that anything was happening.

I was supposed to go down to the south of Lebanon this weekend, but depending on how things play out in the next few days, I think I'll probably wait to see how things go before driving down there.

I know that it's easier for the IDF to attack Gaza than it is to launch a full attack against Lebanon (there have already been a few air strikes inside lebanese territory on Hizbollah targets), but I'm not terribly optimistic about Israel's response to such an attack, considering their response to the recent Hamas attack.

CNN seems intent on stressing the "celabratory gunfire in Beirut," which is misleading at best. The Beirut correspondant said that there was gunfire in the southern suburbs, which are bastions of Shi'ite Hezbollah supporters. From where I am, Hamra, which is the prodominantly Muslim neighborhood where the Lebanese American University and the American University in Beirut are, is calm and gunfire-free.

I spent Friday night and Saturday morning in a small oasis. A friend of a friend's parents own a beautiful house in the Shi'ite town Nabatiya. Driving into town, the streets were lined with pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah flags and pictures of Lebanese Shi'a martyrs. The Party of God's merchandise was on sale, including flags and t-shirts and even a kite.

But we were insulated from all this within the confines of a luxurious house, where we swam and drank mixed drinks to the sound of the evening call to prayer. Unfortunately, we had to leave early on Saturday morning, so I wasn't really able to explore the South, but I will return soon enough.

Sometimes it's interesting to go back and look at things you've written previously. Last night, I came across a piece on the Middle East (and Lebanon specifically) that I wrote when the US was patting itself on the back for pushing the region toward democracy.

Here it is:

Objects in Motion

January 2005

Reading the news in the English language world today gives one the impression that democracy is spreading like wildfire in the Middle East ? that "freedom is on the march." Even many of those against the war in Iraq are starting to think that although they don?t like President Bush's methods, it's hard to argue with results. Apparently, the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent toppling of its mustachioed tyrant have pushed the Arab world in the direction of democracy, and as any first year physics student will tell you, objects in motion tend to stay in motion. So, according to Newton's first law as applied to geopolitics, the Middle East was an object at rest, which would stay at rest until acted upon by an exterior force, that is to say, the United States.

Another part of Newton's law is that objects in motion tend to continue in a straight line. Thus set in motion towards democracy, the Middle East cannot help but continue this noble trajectory. So, we hear, Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq have all had democratic elections; Egypt and Saudi Arabia have begun to inch their way in democracy?s direction; and finally, the Lebanese population has decided to throw off the yoke of Syrian influence in order to fulfill its inevitable destiny of self-determination.

Recent Elections

Is this true? Has freedom been brought with cannons; has democracy been exported like processed goods? To be sure, the fall of the Taliban is a good start for Afghanistan; however, with the exception of Kabul, most of the country is currently in the hands of warlords and Taliban returnees. The west has a short attention span, and as a result, women are being forced to don their Burkahs again, and the opium trade is flourishing. The National Human Development Report, published this month by the United Nations Development Programme, describes Afghanistan as "a fragile nation still at odds if no longer at war with itself that could easily slip back into chaos and abject poverty."

Democracy's next stop is Palestine where the recent democratic elections saw the ascendance of Mr. Abbas, who was elected with a broad base of support from across the board. This, however, was due to Arafat's death, not the invasion of Iraq. Furthermore, although most Americans don?t know it, Palestinians have had democratic elections before. They were held in 1996, and Arafat won 88 percent of the vote. His opponent was a woman named Sahima Khalil who headed a local NGO. A total of 692 candidates ran for the 88 seats of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Which brings us to the elections in Iraq. While the elections were an enormous step for Iraqis, there were also enormous problems. Security was so bad that most of the candidates refused to campaign or even publicly admit to running for office for fear of assassination. While writing this, I learn that 47 people were killed by a suicide bomber in a Shiite Mosque in Mosul at a funeral, as was the Baghdad Chief of Police with his driver and guard in a separate incident. Add this to the 105 people killed two weeks ago outside a medical clinic in the town of Hillah, south of Baghdad, and democracy's victory dance seems somehow less convincing.

It's currently too early to know what to make of the political reforms in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Time will tell if Cairo's move to allow a multiparty presidential election is genuine or just window dressing designed to give the presidency to Mubarak's son Gamal. The amendment to Egypt's constitution does not set term limits (Mubarak, who is 76, is on his fourth term), and it remains to be seen if the banned Muslim Brotherhood, the largest Islamic group in the country, will be allowed to participate or if the government will release imprisoned opposition leaders like Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, who was arrested last January. Likewise, it is difficult to say whether the proposal for limited municipal elections in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh's promise that women will get to vote not this time, but next time, is genuine reform or a charade to smooth over relations with the West, and namely the US. Furthermore, it is difficult to say if the invasion of Iraq served as a catalyst for these proposed changes or if they occurred independent of (or even despite) American intervention.


Lebanon and the "Cedar Revolution"

As for Lebanon, images of Beirut's youth, both Muslim and Christian, banding together and waving cedar flags are comforting to the West, especially after last year's UN Security Council Resolution 1559 called for the Syrian government to withdraw its 14,000 troops and cease its interference in Lebanese affairs. The same resolution called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Shia Islamic party/militia accredited with pushing Israel out of Southern Lebanon. The opposition demonstrations, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami (who was reelected by the Parliament nine days later), drew immediate comparisons to the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, leading many in the western press to dub the protests the "Cedar Revolution" and give the credit to American intervention in Iraq. The truth, however, seems to be much more complicated.

Opposition to the current government in Beirut and its backers in Damascus, has been building for some time now. It followed the September 2004 move by Syria to influence the Lebanese National Assembly to amend the constitution to give pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud an additional three years in office, lengthening his mandate from six to nine years. This was the second time that Syria had pressured Lebanon's Parliament into making constitutional changes in favor of Lahoud, the first being in 1998 by allowing him to run for president immediately after resigning as the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Finally, former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who resigned in protest of the constitutional amendment in 2004, was killed in a car bombing last month. This is what sparked large demonstrations against the government and Syria in Beirut. It is true, however, that the US, along with France, supported the UN Security Council Resolution calling for the withdrawal of Syrian forces. But unless the assassination, which has been largely attributed to Syria by outsiders as well as the Lebanese opposition, was the work of the US, it's hard to say how the Bush administration can take all the credit for the Lebanese opposition movement.

Lebanese history and politics are very complicated, and the huge pro-Syria counter-protest organized by Hezbollah this week illustrated this fact. Lebanon, a country that is a little over two-thirds the size of Connecticut and has just under 4 million inhabitants, is highly sectarian. There are 17 officially recognized religions in the tiny country, and the government is based on what is called a sectarian balance. This means that the constitution stipulates the religion of the major office holders and the religious makeup of the Parliament. Concretely, this means that the president is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim and the position of Speaker of the Parliament is reserved for a Shia Muslim. Likewise, the Parliament itself is balanced along sectarian lines, with the 128 seats being split evenly between Christians and Muslims and being subdivided to allow for 27 seats each for Shia and Sunni Muslims and 8 and 2 seats for the Druze and Alawi Muslim sects, respectively. Of the 64 Christian seats, 34 are reserved for Maronites. Although there has not been an official census since 1932, about 59 percent of Lebanese citizens are thought to be Muslim.

In addition to the 17 sects, there are also as many as 1 million Syrian workers and about 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The Palestinians, a largely Sunni group that makes up over 10 percent of population in Lebanon, suffer from the delicate sectarian balancing act. Even those born in Lebanon are not granted Lebanese citizenship; they are barred from 73 job categories (including medicine, law and engineering), and are not allowed to own property. Unlike other foreigners in Lebanon, they are denied access to the public health system. Moreover, they are refused work permits and the right to own land. Ostensibly, this is in solidarity for the Palestinians' right to return to the occupied territories or within Israel, but in reality, it is more likely due to the fact that allowing Palestinians to participate in the running of the country would tip the balance in favor of the Muslims in general and the Sunni in particular.

This multifaceted mishmash that constitutes Lebanese society means that things are much more complex than the pictures of the "Cedar Revolution" let on. For starters, the Syrian force was installed in Lebanon for a reason: to end the civil war and stabilize the war-torn country. And while Damascus certainly takes advantage of its influence in Lebanon with less than altruistic intentions, it is unclear what a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would mean exactly. While the Druze, the Christians and the Maronites, and, to a lesser extent, the Sunnis, are all united against what they perceive as a common enemy, it is impossible to know if this unity will continue once Syria leaves, thus creating a power vacuum. This is why not all of the pro-Syria protesters are Hezbollah supporters or even Shia. Some Palestinians, for example, want Syrian troops to stay, simply because they fear another civil war as a result of the Syrian departure.

So before the world starts patting the Bush administration on the back, we should stop to reflect on the causes, and more important the consequences, of the current events in the Middle East.


Taking off our glasses

This remains true for Iraq and is equally true for the potential hornet's nest that is Lebanon. I would like to hope that the Lebanese have finally renounced sectarian violence after 15 years of civil war and almost as many years of peace, and that the power vacuum left by the departing Syrians might be filled by a more democratic representation of the people. I'd like to hope that the Palestinians will be afforded the same rights as the other groups in Lebanon, and that the country will finally be mature enough to see past the sectarian politics of the "confessional system," leaving people free to vote for policies instead of religions.

Likewise, I hope that Afghanistan will be able to stabilize itself with the help of the West as well as that of the Middle East. And I hope that Palestine and Israel will come to a peaceful and democratic conclusion to the past violence, and that Iraqis will exercise their will with voting booths instead of car bombs. (Incidentally, a referendum on the American military presence would be an excellent start.) I hope that women and men in Egypt and Saudi Arabia will get a real chance to vote for what they believe in and that if given that chance, they will not vote to abolish democracy.

But I?m not so sure that these hopes are realistic; I'm afraid that some of them, if not most of them, are premature. So, in the meantime, we should stop counting our chicks before they hatch and instead start protecting the eggs. This means trying to understand the region and, to my mind, admitting that maybe democracy can't be exported like Coca-Cola or dropped attached to smart bombs. Democracy must be grown at home, and to do so, the soil needs to be tended to and the seeds watered with care. This means acknowledging and supporting the democratic movements that have sprouted through the cracks of the authoritarian asphalt, like the Palestinian elections in 1996; Qatar's independent media and 1999 elections for the Municipal Council; and Bahrain's 2003 Advisory Council elections in which six women were elected. In all three of these elections, both men and women were allowed to vote.

Another important way for the West to support homegrown democracy is to help independent local media outlets in the region. And in order to do this, the US, in particular, needs to admit that while it regularly receives harsh criticism from the Qatari television outlet, Al Jazeera, so do the governments of Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Algeria and the Palestinian Authority, amongst others. In the end, offending governments is sometimes the sign of a strong independent media. So rather than bombing the Qatari news channel, as a Pentagon spokesman admitted the US had done in Afghanistan, and pressuring Doha into selling the station, the US should be trying to support more independent voices in the region like Al Jazeera.

Supporting democracy also means supporting the right to true self-determination in the countries that have been objects of the Bush administration's nation-building projects ? even if the Iraqis vote the US forces, military bases and all, out for good. It means using American power evenhandedly and standing up for real freedom and democracy, even when it might not be convenient for short-term American self-interest, as in Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, true democracy in the Middle East requires the West, and especially the US, to take off its rose colored glasses when looking at the region. The US should have known that it would not be greeted with open arms in Iraq and that the occupation, and all the things that have come with it, would quickly turn many Iraqis against America. The US should also know that any belligerent behavior or rhetoric toward Iran will only result in an across-the-board nuclear solidarity throughout the Islamic Republic. And finally, the US should know that Lebanon is a nation walking on a tightrope, and that if it shakes the rope and disturbs the performer's delicate balance, it should make sure that there's a safety net below. One idea would be to support broadening the mandate of the UN forces already in Lebanon, and filling their ranks with troops from countries seen as being neutral in the situation -- Scandinavian countries, for example -- in order to diffuse any potential conflict between the different sects.

It's too soon to say what the long-term effects of the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq will be, but one thing is sure: the Middle East was not an object at rest, which the US hurtled toward democracy with strong but clumsy hands. The region had already begun its slow and uphill journey toward freedom in places like Qatar, Bahrain and Palestine, and whether this movement has been helped or hindered by American intervention remains to be seen. The important thing is for the US to be evenhanded and realistic, knowing that there is only so much it can do with its already tarnished legitimacy, which resulted from its bogus rationale for war in Iraq and its subsequent utilization of torture. It's better to be pleasantly surprised if the worst-case scenario doesn't come true than to have our rose colored glasses blown off our smug, self-righteous faces by a volley of car bombs.

For the second time in ten years, the village of Qana, where Jesus is said to have turned water into wine, was shelled by Israel. In 1996, during Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath, more than 100 Lebanese civilians were killed when the UN installation was shelled.

Again this week, the UN installation was shelled, after repeated pleas from UN observers to Israel to stop the strikes. This time around 60 civilians died, including 37 children.

This is also the second time in this war that Israel has hit UN outposts. Perhaps it's paranoia, which seems almost contagious in the region, but it's harder and harder for me to believe that these were accidents.

I went to the Dead Sea and Mount Nemo yesterday.

Here are some pictures from Petra and Wadi Rum and Amman:

This is from Petra, the pink city, built by the Nabateans and later annexed by the Romans:


This is a picture of Wadi Rum, where Lawrence of Arabia was based during the Arab Revolt of 1917-18:



This is downtown Amman, where a woman is selling ducks, chickens and baby chicks, the last of which have been dyed, presumably so that children will get their parents to buy them one. From what I saw, this worked, because this woman sold several chicks while I was there, whereas the woman down the street with plain yellow chicks wasn't selling any at all:

I just got back from Petra, Wadi Rum and Aqaba. I'm very tired now, but tomorrow, I'll write a little about it and upload a couple of pictures, insh'allah.

If you've ever seen the last Indiana Jones movie, you've seen the treasury at Petra...

There's been no news about Amal or a negotiation for the captured Israeli troops. There has been more and more talk about a multinational force, but in order to patrol the border and disarm Hizbollah, it would have to be enormous and belligerant.

Forcefully trying to disarm Hizbollah seems foolish, and if this is attempted by foreign troops, they will quickly find themselves in a hostile quagmire.

If Hizbollah is to be disarmed, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that would include regularizing the border between Israel and Lebanon, especially the Shebba Farms that Israel still occupies; prisoner exchanges; and folding Hizbollah forces into a national Lebanese army under the control of Beirut.

According to my sources, Condoleeza Rice has just arrived in Beirut, which is suprising since she was scheduled to only visit Israel. We'll see if anything comes of her visit...

Since this war started, I've been afraid of an escalation involving Syria. In the last few days, it's seemed that things will either get much better or much worse in the next couple of weeks:

Better: Hizbollah has reportedly given the two captured Israeli soldiers to the other Shia party, Amal, so that they can negotiate their release with Israel.

Olmert has said that Israel would accept an EU peacekeeping force.

Worse: Despite talk of an international force on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Israel continues to step up its attacks and creep farther and farther into Lebanon.

Syria has responded, saying, "If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within 20 kilometres of Damascus. What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

I hope that with the capture of two Hizbollah militants, Israel and Hizbollah can negotiate (directly, or through an intermediary like Amal or Germany) the release of prisoners on both sides as well as a general cease-fire.

Here is a piece in Ha'aretz that lays things out for Israeli readers:

This war must be stopped now and immediately. From the start it was unnecessary, even if its excuse was justified, and now is the time to end it. Every day raises its price for no reason, taking a toll in blood that gives Israel nothing tangible in return....

Israel went into the campaign on justified grounds and with foul means. It claims it has declared war on Hezbollah but, in practice, it is destroying Lebanon. It has gotten most of what it could have out of this war. The aerial "target bank" has mostly been covered. The air force could continue to sow destruction in the residential neighborhoods and empty offices and could also continue dropping dozens of tons of bombs on real or imagined bunkers and kill innocent Lebanese, but nothing good will come of it.

And in a wonderful little piece by Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert on casting the first stone, he shows that humans instinctively think of their actions as consequences of another's provocation and nearly always underestimate the strength of their response (it's worth reading in its entirety to see the experiments used):

After all, it is wrong to punch anyone except a puncher, and our language even has special words -- like "retaliation" and "retribution" and "revenge" -- whose common prefix is meant to remind us that a punch thrown second is legally and morally different than a punch thrown first.

That's why participants in every one of the globe's intractable conflicts -- from Ireland to the Middle East -- offer the even-numberedness of their punches as grounds for exculpation.

The problem with the principle of even-numberedness is that people count differently. Every action has a cause and a consequence: something that led to it and something that followed from it. But research shows that while people think of their own actions as the consequences of what came before, they think of other people's actions as the causes of what came later....

Examples aren't hard to come by. Shiites seek revenge on Sunnis for the revenge they sought on Shiites; Irish Catholics retaliate against the Protestants who retaliated against them; and since 1948, it's hard to think of any partisan in the Middle East who has done anything but play defense. In each of these instances, people on one side claim that they are merely responding to provocation and dismiss the other side's identical claim as disingenuous spin. But research suggests that these claims reflect genuinely different perceptions of the same bloody conversation....

If the first principle of legitimate punching is that punches must be even-numbered, the second principle is that an even-numbered punch may be no more forceful than the odd-numbered punch that preceded it. Legitimate retribution is meant to restore balance, and thus an eye for an eye is fair, but an eye for an eyelash is not. When the European Union condemned Israel for bombing Lebanon in retaliation for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, it did not question Israel's right to respond, but rather, its "disproportionate use of force." It is O.K. to hit back, just not too hard.

Research shows that people have as much trouble applying the second principle as the first. ...

Research teaches us that our reasons and our pains are more palpable, more obvious and real, than are the reasons and pains of others. This leads to the escalation of mutual harm, to the illusion that others are solely responsible for it and to the belief that our actions are justifiable responses to theirs.

Alan Dershiwitz has a disgusting piece in the Los Angeles Times in which he argues that many of the civilians in Lebanon and Palestine are getting what they deserve. He argues for a "continuum of civilianality," which would make many civilians fair game for Israeli strikes:

The Israeli army has given well-publicized notice to civilians to leave those areas of southern Lebanon that have been turned into war zones. Those who voluntarily remain behind have become complicit. Some -- those who cannot leave on their own -- should be counted among the innocent victims.

Why would people stay in the areas being bombarded by the Israelis? Many have no place to go; in the south, most of the bridges have been destroyed, trapping many families in their towns; and since Israel has been bombing civilian convoys, many are afraid to leave. And for good reason:

On Sunday [the Shaito family] gave up their stand, and all 18 members crammed into the family's white Mazda minivan. They planned to head north toward the relative safety of Beirut.

Within minutes they became casualties of Israel's 12-day-old bombardment of southern Lebanon, which the Israelis say they will continue indefinitely to destroy the military abilities of Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group. By the Lebanese official count, Israel's attacks have killed more than 380 Lebanese.

An Israeli rocket, which Lebanese officials said was likely fired from a helicopter, slammed into the center of the Shaitos' van as it sped round a bend a few miles west of their village, and the van crashed into a hillside. Three occupants were killed: an uncle, Mohammad; the grandmother, Nazira; and a Syrian man who had guarded their home. The missile also critically wounded Mrs. Shaito and her sister. Eleven others suffered less severe wounds.

"They said leave, and that's what we did," said Musbah Shaito, another uncle, as his niece, Heba, 16, cried hysterically behind him for her dead father, whose head was nearly blown off. This reporter watched as paramedics struggled to remove the dead from the van, but soon gave up, as an Israeli drone hovered overhead.

"This is what we got for listening to them," Mr. Shaito said, speaking of the Israelis.

This is what Mr Dershowitz's cold calculus means in human terms. That same day, Israel reported that they had hit "approximately 20 vehicles" suspected of "serving the terror organization in the launching of missiles at Israel, and were recognized fleeing from or staying at missile-launching areas."

Read that again. These vehicles were either fleeing or staying, so they were hit. These civilians were obviously "complicit," according to Alan Dershiwitz.

I arrived last night in Amman to my friend's house, where I've been received in the Arabic tradition, that is to say with open arms and unlimited hospitality. I'll be figuring out my ticket back to Paris and should be back in France in the next week or so.

Yesterday was a bloody day for Lebanon, even more so than "usual." At least 55 Lebanese civilians were killed in Israeli attacks, bringing the toll up to over 300. The Israelis also attacked Achrifieh, which is a chic Christian neighborhood of Beirut.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, has spoken out agains the assaults by Israel and Hizbollah:

Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians... Similarly, the bombardment of sites with alleged military significance, but resulting invariably in the killing of innocent civilians, is unjustifiable.

Responding to complaints that Israel has been using disproportionate force, Dan Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador to the UN, had the following to say: "You're damn right we are."

In other news, The New York Times published a letter to the editor that I sent them the other day.

I've been told that El Pais linked to my blog, but I haven't been able to find it, so a link would be appreciated.

An Australian friend of mine who has stayed in Beirut is also keeping a blog. You can check it out here.

I arrived safely last night to Damascus, and UNRWA has welcomed me with open arms. For one reason or another, the convoy split at the Syrian border, with the World Bank bus and one or two other buses going to the Dead Sea. I was told by UNDP and UNRWA in Syria that there were no hotels at the Dead Sea, so I stayed here at the UNRWA training center in Damascus.

Representatives from UNHCR, UNRWA and UNDP are arranging for me to leave to Amman today, since it seems that my Syrian transit visa is only good for 24 hours. I will be staying with friends in Amman until I can arrange for a flight back to Paris, which will probably take a few days. I will check in with the Amman UNESCO office today or tomorrow morning at the latest.

I will give a more detailed account when I get to Amman.

With the help of my friends all over the world and some connections from work, I've been lucky enough to find a way out of the country in a UN convoy. My colleagues and friends at UNESCO especially, and some diplomats and friends from Iraq and Iceland, have been very helpful, and I appreciate this greatly. It is in situations like this that you realize how much your friends and family really care about you. My family has been worried sick but have done everything they can to help me leave.

So to everyone who has worried about me, made telephone calls and sent emails for me, given me advice, checked up, sent encouraging words or called just to say that they're thinking of me, thank you. Thank you very much.

I almost regret leaving, because many of my friends here cannot. I have the privilege of having the right color passport, or in the case of my Palestinian friends, of having a passport at all. So it is both with relief and with a heavy heart that I leave this city that I love so much and all of my friends here, whom I'll miss very much.

I'll probably spend most if not all of tomorrow in the bus or on the border tomorrow, but when I arrive in Amman, I'll post an update of the voyage.

I just ran into a woman and her 4 children who has just come from Tyre. The first thing she asked was whether there were bombs here too. She didn't speak any English (only Arabic and German), so I had to interpret in bad German for my friend who was trying to help her get in touch with the German embassy (she and her children are German citizens).

We gave her the number for the German embassy in Beirut and sent the Germans an email with her information so that she could get evacuated. She told me that she didn't care if she went to France or Italy or Germany or wherever, so long as her kids could get out of Lebanon. Tyre has been bombed many times in the last few days. She has a 2-month old baby in addition to her three other children children, who are 9, 8 and 5 years old.

My Dutch friend just crossed the Syrian border. She was stuck there for a while, because there were so many people crossing: Dutch, Brazilian, Czech and Swiss busses among others. She said that the road was fine and that all was calm, since the Israelis must know that a lot of foreign nationals are leaving by road.

I'm watching al-Jazeera, and they are reporting that Hizbollah has just downed an Israeli F-16.

People have been streaming in from the South and from Dahiye, the southern suburb of Beirut that's been continuously hit by the Israelis, so the building where I'm staying is getting fuller and fuller. At all hours of the night, there are groups of people sitting in the hallways smoking or talking or worrying.

I haven't gone into Dahiye, but a friend who lives there has told me what it looks like. Here are some pictures from the Times:

The American embassy is a mess this morning. They would not let anyone inside the embassy; instead, they handed out registration forms and a list of things to bring in a "small bag" in an evacuation. We were told that "hopefully" there would be an evacuation this week, probably to Cyprus, however, they did not know how. To evacuate, it is necessary to pay, but if you don't have enough money, you must sign a promissory note. The rules for who can evacuate are this: American citizens only. If your children are not citizens, they can come, so long as they are minors. Non-American parents who have children (minors) that are American nationals must choose which parent will go with the children and which will stay. Green card holders cannot go. Non-American spouses of American citizens cannot go. Families will be split up.

The French are not splitting up families and have already started their evacuation. French residents, myself included, are not allowed to go. It is unclear if they are leaving by air, land or sea, but I don't think that it's by sea. The Dutch left this morning by bus to Aleppo. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that the Italians are stuck in a bus, because they cannot leave by sea due to the Israeli shelling of the ports. I'm not sure if they are stuck at a port or if they detoured from the port and are trying to leave by land now. Two British warships arrived last night, although they have not called my friend with a British passport. There is no word from the Australian embassy, and the Jordanians evacuated by bus several days ago, although a Jordanian friend of mine missed that bus, because she has two passports and was not registered with the Jordanians.

UNESCO is planning on evacuating people out of Beirut to the city of Jbeil (Byblos), but there is no word on leaving Lebanon.

It seems like none of the Western countries were able to negotiate safe passage by sea with the Israelis, which is highly surprising but would explain why the Israelis decided to hit so many ports this weekend. The word is that 8 Canadians were killed last night, although again, it's impossible for me to confirm this.

I am thinking about taking advantage of the lull in attacks on the northern road into Syria to try to get to the border and bribe my way into a transit visa so that I can get to Turkey. A Dutch friend of mine who evacuated this morning with her compatriots told me that the road was passable. Prices seem to be dropping a bit for taxis, since the Israelis have taken a break from bombing the roads, so it looks like a taxi to Tripoli would be around $100, and probably a similar price for the rest of the trip to Syria. Once inside Syria, the prices should be normal, which is to say cheap. From the Turkish border, I could stay with friends in Mersin and then make my way to Istanbul, where I have friends and could negotiate a flight to Paris with one of the two Turkish Airways tickets that I have. I don't really fancy waiting a week or more for the Americans, and once in Cyprus, I'll be on my own, and I'm pretty sure that Turkish Airways does not fly to Cyprus.

I was called this morning at the school where I had taken my first Arabic class the morning Hizbollah attacked Israel. The woman from the school asked if I was leaving or not, so that they could try to organize themselves for the classes that had already begun. I told her that I was not sure when I would be leaving but that I was pretty sure that I would not be continuing my classes with them. She told me to be careful and said that she would pray for me to get out safely. Then she left me with a touching but disconcerting request: "Please pray for my country." I can't remember the last time I prayed, but I said I would.

Apparently the US is sending an "assessment team" to Beirut, which may or may not have already arrived. This is the email (they still haven't managed to get with the program and start sending text messages instead of emails) they sent me today:

The US Department of State and the US Department of Defense continue working on a plan to help American citizens who wish to depart Lebanon to leave in a secure and orderly manner. To assist in the development of that operation, the U.S. Government is sending an assessment team to Beirut to facilitate the safe departure of Americans who wish to leave.

The Embassy is open and will remain open at this time in support of American citizens in Lebanon. American citizens may register by contacting the Embassy in Beirut directly, or through the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs registration site at http://travelregistration.state.gov. For updated information, visit the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs website at http://travel.state.gov.

Updated information on travel and security in Lebanon may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States, or, from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. Additional information, as it becomes available will be released via the media, Embassy warden announcements and on the Department and Embassy websites.

I'll try to get aboard any evacuation ship to Cyprus I can, but there are scores of thousands of foreigners here, and any evacuation effort will most likely take several days, and families with children and medical cases will be the first to leave. I'll sign the promissory note saying that I'll pay the government back, but I still find it scandalous.

I'm a little worried about how much I'll be able to take back with me. I've got a lot of books for my thesis, which I'm supposed to defend in September. But what I'm really worried about are friends of mine who cannot leave Lebanon. Many have headed for towns in the mountains, but it's hard to say how safe (and for how long) these places will end up being.

Otherwise, I've been staying away from the news today, reading and listening to music. I did go down to al Manara (the lighthouse), which was hit by Israel yesterday and is about a 7-10 minute walk from my place. I was actually surprised that the lighthouse was not more damaged (only the top seemed to be damaged). Here's what it looks like:



My friend is going back to what's left of his neighborhood in Dahiye (the residential suburb being called a "Hizbollah stronghold" where Hizbollah's offices are). He's going to try to take some pictures, which I'll try to post here.

Otherwise, here is an account of what's happening here by Robert Fisk, who lives in Beirut.

Here is an interesting interview with the co-director of an American NGO that actually talks with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran.

While I was buying a cheese and zataar manouche today, a guy came up and gave this flyer to a friend with me:



The snake in the corner is Nasrallah, and the text says, The resistance defends the nation? The nation is sacrificed by the resistance... (al maqawama tahmi wattan? al wattan tahiya al maqawama...)

We passed the flyer around so that everyone could see, then two Lebanese officers from the police station came by and asked my friend for his paper, which he took to mean papers, starting to get out his passport. They said no, and told him that they wanted to see the flyer. They inspected it and then asked him where it came from. A few minutes later, a young kid about ten years old came up and asked to see it too. Then the guy who gave us the flyer came back with more, passing them out. He and his friends started loudly discussing how the Lebanese people didn't need Hizbollah.

It's hard to say if they were sincere, because there was a police station within earshot. They could have been trying to find people with anti-Hizbollah sentiments, because after all, the other day, Nasrallah did say, in a pronouncement that would make Bush proud: if you're against us, you're against Lebanon.

I meant to post this last night, but I was too tired. This is a picture of Bliss Street, the main drag for students at the American University of Beirut in Hamra. On Friday and Saturday nights, it is usually packed with young people having food at the local diners Zataar wa Zeit (Zataar and Oil) and B to B (Breakfast to Breakfast) after a night of dancing.

To give you an idea of how things have slowed down here, there was no one there last night, and no cars either:

I registered with the French embassy as a resident of Paris today and then decided to go for lunch and a coffee. As I was having a beer (instead of a coffee), my friends and I heard an explosion that sounded louder and closer than they have so far. It turns out that the Israelis have bombed Beirut's main port and the neighborhood of al Manara, which is on the coast and about a ten minute walk from my place here.

The ports of Jounieh, Jbeil (Byblos) and Tripoli (all north of Beirut) were also hit. As I write, all of these places are being hit again. The Israelis are not really discriminating based on sect; they are bombing all of Lebanon's infrastructure, making good on their promise to set Lebanon back 20 years.

Balbaak was also hit. The house of a leader in Hizbollah was hit, but it's unclear if he was harmed or not.

The word out at all of the European embassies is that the European, American, Canadian, British and Australian embassies are going to start evacuating by boat to Cyprus starting on Monday. However, I'm not sure how we're supposed to board these boats if the Israelis keep bombing all the ports in the area.

A lot of people are still trying to leave by car, but the roads to Syria are very dangerous, because the Israelis are continually bombing them. Normally a taxi to Damascus costs about $15 or $20; yesterday, people were paying $200 to $300; and today, people are paying between $800 and $1,000 per person.

UPDATE: They just hit the port (or maybe Manara) again, and perhaps I'm just being paranoid, but I have the feeling that the Israelis are doing this to make it more difficult for Westerners to leave...

I've been pretty disappointed with the US Government in general and the Embassy here in Beirut in particular. They've been keeping office hours (when I called them right after the airport was bombed, they said to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open), with the exception of being open today, and have been less than helpful in general.

I registered with them, and they've been sending me "Warden Messages," by email. I've yet to receive any phone messages or calls, so I'm not sure what those who don't have access to email are supposed to do. In any case, I received a message about a "repatriation" plan to a neighboring country (most likely, a boat to Cyprus). I was suprised to find out that this service is not free. Out of a 7-line message from the State Department, 4 lines are about paying them back for this service rendered:

The Department of State reminds American citizens that the U.S. government does not provide no-cost transportation but does have the authority to provide repatriation loans to those in financial need. For the portion of your trip directly handled by the U.S. Government we will ask you to sign a promissory note and we will bill you at a later date. In a subsequent message, when we have specific details about the transporation arrangments, we will inform you about the costs you will incur. We will also work with commercial aircraft to ensure that they have adequate flights to help you depart Cyprus and connect to your final destination.

In lighter news, this dangerous militant, Abu Biss al Bussy Qatti, was found hiding in our bathroom, curled up next to the bidet:

According to al Manar, Israel has confirmed the sinking of one of their shiups off the coast of Lebanon. Nasrallah, after surviving an Israeli attack unhurt, is speaking, and he is saying that he does not believe in an international community and that he is sorry for the loss of Lebanese lives. He is calling on the Lebanese people to go take a look at the sinking ship before it is submerged in the Mediterannean. He is saying that like before (when Hezbollah forced Israel out of southern Lebanon in 2000), the Lebanese people will prevail.

His message to Israel: "Your new government is incompetent, does not know how to measure proportionality and is very weak and inexperienced. ... When you hit Beirut, we will hit Haifa. When you hit Dahiye, we will hit Haifa. ... We can reach Haifa, and what's after Haifa and what's after what's after Haifa."

UPDATE: The Israelis are claiming that the warship was "slightly damaged." Al Jazeera is saying that Hezbollah has sunk the ship. Lebanese forces are, according to Al Jazeera, "fending off amphibious Israeli forces" off the coast of Saida.

The strike on the electricity transformers has taken out electricity in all of Beirut. I didn't notice at first, because I was at a friend's place, and there's a generator in the apartment building. The hallways of the building have been frantic since the bombings early this morning at around 3 or 4 a.m. People were leaving, but I think that a lot of people are coming back after the electricity went out in the city, since there's a generator. I ran into a family of American Arabs from Michigan in the lobby of the apartment building, who has just arrived in Lebanon for work. Their family lives in Baalbek and the south, so they don't have anywhere to go, since both areas are being shelled by the Israelis.

Things are tense here in the city, because it's hard to sleep with the shelling during the night and then it's disconcerting that the electricity is out now, also. Everyone has been really helpful and nice, worrying about me since I'm foreign. I think I will continue staying at my friend's place, if only because they have a generator, which means that the AC will be working.

Some people are getting really worried about this spreading to Syria, and I think that they're right to worry about that. I'm afraid that the Syrians will do something stupid, and that the Israelis will start bombing Damascus. Israel has already retreated troops from Gaza, but this is obviously so that they can reinforce the reserves in Lebanon, and probably get ready to hit Syria. Damascus, I think, believes that they have Teheran's support, but it wouldn't surprise me if Iran stays out of this one, particularly if Syria hits Israel first. The Iranians know that if they get overtly involved, then the US will use that as an excuse to start the regime changes in Damascus and Tehran that they've been hoping for.

There are some who think that the UN will be able to broker a cease-fire this weekend, but I'm not very optimistic, particularly if Annan's envoys focus their efforts on the Lebanese government instead of going directly to Nasrallah. At this point, it seems unlikely that either Israel or Hezbollah will be willing to back down any time soon. I predict that if and when this spreads to Syria, Western governments will start evacuating their nationals.

I'm more awake now after a couple of hours of sleep. It looks like what woke me up this morning was the tail end of last night's attack this morning. Saida was shelled last night from the sea, while Dahiye (southern suburb of Beirut controlled by Hizbollah) was hit again, along with the road to Damascus and the airport.

Dan Halutz, chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, has said that Israel will "take Lebanon back 20 years." Beirut in 1986 was not a good place to be. If you have any doubts about that, a quick look at Robert Fisk's journalism from the period will change your mind.

The electricity went out earlier this morning, but only for a minute or two. I'm a little worried about the Israelis are going to start destroying Lebanon's infrastructure, which would mean that I'd be without electricity.

I went out for a drink last night, where I ran into someone from the British embassy. A discussion with him did not really make me feel any better. He was telling me how many British citizens here have this idea that there must be Black Hawks poised to break the blockade and evacuate the crown's own. This is not the case. At least not yet. All of the embassies that I've spoken to (US, French and UK) have said that the main course of action now is to just wait and see, trying to stay away from areas that might be subject to Israeli shelling. He also told me that travelling to Damascus was a bad idea, since people were driving like fools trying to get to the border, and there's a chance that the Syrians might turn you back anyway, depending on your passport. Last night's attack on the road to Syria showed that his advice and my gut feeling against Syria were indeed correct.

Looking at the western press, there's something that keeps bothering me. I keep hearing that a Hizbollah stronghold has been targeted by Israel. That's one way of putting it. Another would be the residential Shi'ite suburb of Beirut where Hizbollah has a lot of support, as well as their offices and television station. I can't help but think that people hear "Hizbollah stronghold" and imagine some sort of a militarty base. This is not the case. Dahiye is a residential suburb where families live and children go to school. Likewise in the south of the country. On one of the bridges that was bombed in the south, you can see the skid marks of a car that didn't stop in time after the explosion. The car, and everyone in it, fell 50 feet to the ground.

These are the kinds of people that are being harmed:



I'm going to go out and get something to eat, but in the meantime, looking at some of the consequences of this conflict is a good idea.

It's a quarter to five, and I just woke up. I thought I heard a loud noise but then wasn't sure. Now I'm sure there was an explosion. It sounds like neighbors pulling down their garage door fast. I'm pretty sure that it sounds like that, because it's not very close, because I can't see anything, except for people waking up to go outside and look around. I assume that the Israelis have hit Dahiye again, the Shi'ite suburb to the south of the airport. I'm watching al-Jazeera now, and it's showing the bomb scene in Beirut (or maybe it was just a sonic boom?), but I can't make out the neighborhood, because my Arabic isn't good enough to keep up with the scrolling headlines. There is a picture of a young man in his early twenties or late teens. He's covered in blood, but he seems to be unhurt, so it's hard to tell if it's someone else's blood or if it's his.

I'm sure that the news will get to the English language channels in a few hours. Last night, the airport was hit again. Other targets include the main road from the airport to the south and the road from Beirut to Damascus. I don't know if any people were killed on the way to Damascus, but Israel has confirmed hitting the road five times, and I know a lot of people were taking that road, because it's pretty much the only way out of the country since the ports have been blockaded and the airport closed. Apparently the fuel stores at the Jiyyeh power plant south of the city was also hit.

All of the Israeli talking heads keep talking about cutting off supply lines for Syria, but this is absurd. We all know where Hizbollah's money and weapons come from: Syria. Hitting the airport and blockading the ports, effectively trapping everyone inside Lebanon, is meant to make a point to Beirut: look what we can do.

I think the latest attacks are over, so I'm going to try to go back to bed. I haven't gotten much sleep in the last day or two. Here's a map that shows (circled and in red) where I am in Beirut and where the airport is. Compared to American cities, or even Paris, Beirut is a small city.

I've packed up my things in case the worst happens and I need to leave Beirut in a hurry. I've also registered with the embassy, but they've not been very helpful and have given me no information whatsoever. (When I called this morning after the bombing of the airport, they told me to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open.)

It seems that Israel has blockaded all Lebanese ports, so the route that I was keeping in mind to Cyprus is closed. The only option now is at the Syrian border, but again, I'm hesitant to try that, because the borders are already packed and I have my doubts about the Syrians letting me into the country unless I'm part of an official foreign convoy.

Twenty-seven Lebanese people were killed in last night's and this morning's attacks, and from what I can see, an Israeli woman was killed last night by Hizbollah rocket attacks.

Beirut, or at least my neighborhood, Hamra, is calm. Classes were not cancelled at the Lebanese American University, which may or may not be a bellwether for the situation as a whole.

Last night I went to bed after no news here. Israel had bombed several cities in the south, including Nabatiya, the city where I spent last weekend swimming and enjoying the sun. I woke up this morning to a call from a friend's parents in Amman, who told us that Israel had just bombed the Bierut airport, which is now closed.

I called the US embassy, but they told me that they're closed and that I should call back at 8:30.

The Lebanese emvoy to the US, Farid Abboud, was recalled to Beirut for saying that Israel should exchange prisoners.

I haven't been able to get into Syria for the last few days, so I have a hard time believing that I'll be able to get into Damascus. The airport is the only real way out for me, unless I can take a boat from the north to Cyprus, where I could get a flight back to Paris.

Israel is saying that the airport is the hub for terrorist weapons, which is bullshit, because everything most likely comes through the Syrian ground border. This is to show Beirut that Israel means business. I hope that it's a bluff, and that this will be the only real attacks north of Hizbollah-controlled parts of the south. I also hope that there will not be inter-Lebanese fighting...

It seems that Hizbollah has attacked Israel and taken two soldiers. According to the CNN correspondant in Beirut, there are celabratory gunshots in the southern suburbs. I can't hear any, but then again, I'm in Hamra and not in the Shi'ite suburbs. And honestly, if I hadn't turned on the television, I wouldn't know that anything was happening.

I was supposed to go down to the south of Lebanon this weekend, but depending on how things play out in the next few days, I think I'll probably wait to see how things go before driving down there.

I know that it's easier for the IDF to attack Gaza than it is to launch a full attack against Lebanon (there have already been a few air strikes inside lebanese territory on Hizbollah targets), but I'm not terribly optimistic about Israel's response to such an attack, considering their response to the recent Hamas attack.

CNN seems intent on stressing the "celabratory gunfire in Beirut," which is misleading at best. The Beirut correspondant said that there was gunfire in the southern suburbs, which are bastions of Shi'ite Hezbollah supporters. From where I am, Hamra, which is the prodominantly Muslim neighborhood where the Lebanese American University and the American University in Beirut are, is calm and gunfire-free.

I spent Friday night and Saturday morning in a small oasis. A friend of a friend's parents own a beautiful house in the Shi'ite town Nabatiya. Driving into town, the streets were lined with pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah flags and pictures of Lebanese Shi'a martyrs. The Party of God's merchandise was on sale, including flags and t-shirts and even a kite.

But we were insulated from all this within the confines of a luxurious house, where we swam and drank mixed drinks to the sound of the evening call to prayer. Unfortunately, we had to leave early on Saturday morning, so I wasn't really able to explore the South, but I will return soon enough.

Sometimes it's interesting to go back and look at things you've written previously. Last night, I came across a piece on the Middle East (and Lebanon specifically) that I wrote when the US was patting itself on the back for pushing the region toward democracy.

Here it is:

Objects in Motion

January 2005

Reading the news in the English language world today gives one the impression that democracy is spreading like wildfire in the Middle East ? that "freedom is on the march." Even many of those against the war in Iraq are starting to think that although they don?t like President Bush's methods, it's hard to argue with results. Apparently, the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent toppling of its mustachioed tyrant have pushed the Arab world in the direction of democracy, and as any first year physics student will tell you, objects in motion tend to stay in motion. So, according to Newton's first law as applied to geopolitics, the Middle East was an object at rest, which would stay at rest until acted upon by an exterior force, that is to say, the United States.

Another part of Newton's law is that objects in motion tend to continue in a straight line. Thus set in motion towards democracy, the Middle East cannot help but continue this noble trajectory. So, we hear, Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq have all had democratic elections; Egypt and Saudi Arabia have begun to inch their way in democracy?s direction; and finally, the Lebanese population has decided to throw off the yoke of Syrian influence in order to fulfill its inevitable destiny of self-determination.

Recent Elections

Is this true? Has freedom been brought with cannons; has democracy been exported like processed goods? To be sure, the fall of the Taliban is a good start for Afghanistan; however, with the exception of Kabul, most of the country is currently in the hands of warlords and Taliban returnees. The west has a short attention span, and as a result, women are being forced to don their Burkahs again, and the opium trade is flourishing. The National Human Development Report, published this month by the United Nations Development Programme, describes Afghanistan as "a fragile nation still at odds if no longer at war with itself that could easily slip back into chaos and abject poverty."

Democracy's next stop is Palestine where the recent democratic elections saw the ascendance of Mr. Abbas, who was elected with a broad base of support from across the board. This, however, was due to Arafat's death, not the invasion of Iraq. Furthermore, although most Americans don?t know it, Palestinians have had democratic elections before. They were held in 1996, and Arafat won 88 percent of the vote. His opponent was a woman named Sahima Khalil who headed a local NGO. A total of 692 candidates ran for the 88 seats of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Which brings us to the elections in Iraq. While the elections were an enormous step for Iraqis, there were also enormous problems. Security was so bad that most of the candidates refused to campaign or even publicly admit to running for office for fear of assassination. While writing this, I learn that 47 people were killed by a suicide bomber in a Shiite Mosque in Mosul at a funeral, as was the Baghdad Chief of Police with his driver and guard in a separate incident. Add this to the 105 people killed two weeks ago outside a medical clinic in the town of Hillah, south of Baghdad, and democracy's victory dance seems somehow less convincing.

It's currently too early to know what to make of the political reforms in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Time will tell if Cairo's move to allow a multiparty presidential election is genuine or just window dressing designed to give the presidency to Mubarak's son Gamal. The amendment to Egypt's constitution does not set term limits (Mubarak, who is 76, is on his fourth term), and it remains to be seen if the banned Muslim Brotherhood, the largest Islamic group in the country, will be allowed to participate or if the government will release imprisoned opposition leaders like Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, who was arrested last January. Likewise, it is difficult to say whether the proposal for limited municipal elections in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh's promise that women will get to vote not this time, but next time, is genuine reform or a charade to smooth over relations with the West, and namely the US. Furthermore, it is difficult to say if the invasion of Iraq served as a catalyst for these proposed changes or if they occurred independent of (or even despite) American intervention.


Lebanon and the "Cedar Revolution"

As for Lebanon, images of Beirut's youth, both Muslim and Christian, banding together and waving cedar flags are comforting to the West, especially after last year's UN Security Council Resolution 1559 called for the Syrian government to withdraw its 14,000 troops and cease its interference in Lebanese affairs. The same resolution called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Shia Islamic party/militia accredited with pushing Israel out of Southern Lebanon. The opposition demonstrations, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami (who was reelected by the Parliament nine days later), drew immediate comparisons to the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, leading many in the western press to dub the protests the "Cedar Revolution" and give the credit to American intervention in Iraq. The truth, however, seems to be much more complicated.

Opposition to the current government in Beirut and its backers in Damascus, has been building for some time now. It followed the September 2004 move by Syria to influence the Lebanese National Assembly to amend the constitution to give pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud an additional three years in office, lengthening his mandate from six to nine years. This was the second time that Syria had pressured Lebanon's Parliament into making constitutional changes in favor of Lahoud, the first being in 1998 by allowing him to run for president immediately after resigning as the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Finally, former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who resigned in protest of the constitutional amendment in 2004, was killed in a car bombing last month. This is what sparked large demonstrations against the government and Syria in Beirut. It is true, however, that the US, along with France, supported the UN Security Council Resolution calling for the withdrawal of Syrian forces. But unless the assassination, which has been largely attributed to Syria by outsiders as well as the Lebanese opposition, was the work of the US, it's hard to say how the Bush administration can take all the credit for the Lebanese opposition movement.

Lebanese history and politics are very complicated, and the huge pro-Syria counter-protest organized by Hezbollah this week illustrated this fact. Lebanon, a country that is a little over two-thirds the size of Connecticut and has just under 4 million inhabitants, is highly sectarian. There are 17 officially recognized religions in the tiny country, and the government is based on what is called a sectarian balance. This means that the constitution stipulates the religion of the major office holders and the religious makeup of the Parliament. Concretely, this means that the president is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim and the position of Speaker of the Parliament is reserved for a Shia Muslim. Likewise, the Parliament itself is balanced along sectarian lines, with the 128 seats being split evenly between Christians and Muslims and being subdivided to allow for 27 seats each for Shia and Sunni Muslims and 8 and 2 seats for the Druze and Alawi Muslim sects, respectively. Of the 64 Christian seats, 34 are reserved for Maronites. Although there has not been an official census since 1932, about 59 percent of Lebanese citizens are thought to be Muslim.

In addition to the 17 sects, there are also as many as 1 million Syrian workers and about 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The Palestinians, a largely Sunni group that makes up over 10 percent of population in Lebanon, suffer from the delicate sectarian balancing act. Even those born in Lebanon are not granted Lebanese citizenship; they are barred from 73 job categories (including medicine, law and engineering), and are not allowed to own property. Unlike other foreigners in Lebanon, they are denied access to the public health system. Moreover, they are refused work permits and the right to own land. Ostensibly, this is in solidarity for the Palestinians' right to return to the occupied territories or within Israel, but in reality, it is more likely due to the fact that allowing Palestinians to participate in the running of the country would tip the balance in favor of the Muslims in general and the Sunni in particular.

This multifaceted mishmash that constitutes Lebanese society means that things are much more complex than the pictures of the "Cedar Revolution" let on. For starters, the Syrian force was installed in Lebanon for a reason: to end the civil war and stabilize the war-torn country. And while Damascus certainly takes advantage of its influence in Lebanon with less than altruistic intentions, it is unclear what a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would mean exactly. While the Druze, the Christians and the Maronites, and, to a lesser extent, the Sunnis, are all united against what they perceive as a common enemy, it is impossible to know if this unity will continue once Syria leaves, thus creating a power vacuum. This is why not all of the pro-Syria protesters are Hezbollah supporters or even Shia. Some Palestinians, for example, want Syrian troops to stay, simply because they fear another civil war as a result of the Syrian departure.

So before the world starts patting the Bush administration on the back, we should stop to reflect on the causes, and more important the consequences, of the current events in the Middle East.


Taking off our glasses

This remains true for Iraq and is equally true for the potential hornet's nest that is Lebanon. I would like to hope that the Lebanese have finally renounced sectarian violence after 15 years of civil war and almost as many years of peace, and that the power vacuum left by the departing Syrians might be filled by a more democratic representation of the people. I'd like to hope that the Palestinians will be afforded the same rights as the other groups in Lebanon, and that the country will finally be mature enough to see past the sectarian politics of the "confessional system," leaving people free to vote for policies instead of religions.

Likewise, I hope that Afghanistan will be able to stabilize itself with the help of the West as well as that of the Middle East. And I hope that Palestine and Israel will come to a peaceful and democratic conclusion to the past violence, and that Iraqis will exercise their will with voting booths instead of car bombs. (Incidentally, a referendum on the American military presence would be an excellent start.) I hope that women and men in Egypt and Saudi Arabia will get a real chance to vote for what they believe in and that if given that chance, they will not vote to abolish democracy.

But I?m not so sure that these hopes are realistic; I'm afraid that some of them, if not most of them, are premature. So, in the meantime, we should stop counting our chicks before they hatch and instead start protecting the eggs. This means trying to understand the region and, to my mind, admitting that maybe democracy can't be exported like Coca-Cola or dropped attached to smart bombs. Democracy must be grown at home, and to do so, the soil needs to be tended to and the seeds watered with care. This means acknowledging and supporting the democratic movements that have sprouted through the cracks of the authoritarian asphalt, like the Palestinian elections in 1996; Qatar's independent media and 1999 elections for the Municipal Council; and Bahrain's 2003 Advisory Council elections in which six women were elected. In all three of these elections, both men and women were allowed to vote.

Another important way for the West to support homegrown democracy is to help independent local media outlets in the region. And in order to do this, the US, in particular, needs to admit that while it regularly receives harsh criticism from the Qatari television outlet, Al Jazeera, so do the governments of Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Algeria and the Palestinian Authority, amongst others. In the end, offending governments is sometimes the sign of a strong independent media. So rather than bombing the Qatari news channel, as a Pentagon spokesman admitted the US had done in Afghanistan, and pressuring Doha into selling the station, the US should be trying to support more independent voices in the region like Al Jazeera.

Supporting democracy also means supporting the right to true self-determination in the countries that have been objects of the Bush administration's nation-building projects ? even if the Iraqis vote the US forces, military bases and all, out for good. It means using American power evenhandedly and standing up for real freedom and democracy, even when it might not be convenient for short-term American self-interest, as in Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, true democracy in the Middle East requires the West, and especially the US, to take off its rose colored glasses when looking at the region. The US should have known that it would not be greeted with open arms in Iraq and that the occupation, and all the things that have come with it, would quickly turn many Iraqis against America. The US should also know that any belligerent behavior or rhetoric toward Iran will only result in an across-the-board nuclear solidarity throughout the Islamic Republic. And finally, the US should know that Lebanon is a nation walking on a tightrope, and that if it shakes the rope and disturbs the performer's delicate balance, it should make sure that there's a safety net below. One idea would be to support broadening the mandate of the UN forces already in Lebanon, and filling their ranks with troops from countries seen as being neutral in the situation -- Scandinavian countries, for example -- in order to diffuse any potential conflict between the different sects.

It's too soon to say what the long-term effects of the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq will be, but one thing is sure: the Middle East was not an object at rest, which the US hurtled toward democracy with strong but clumsy hands. The region had already begun its slow and uphill journey toward freedom in places like Qatar, Bahrain and Palestine, and whether this movement has been helped or hindered by American intervention remains to be seen. The important thing is for the US to be evenhanded and realistic, knowing that there is only so much it can do with its already tarnished legitimacy, which resulted from its bogus rationale for war in Iraq and its subsequent utilization of torture. It's better to be pleasantly surprised if the worst-case scenario doesn't come true than to have our rose colored glasses blown off our smug, self-righteous faces by a volley of car bombs.

For the second time in ten years, the village of Qana, where Jesus is said to have turned water into wine, was shelled by Israel. In 1996, during Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath, more than 100 Lebanese civilians were killed when the UN installation was shelled.

Again this week, the UN installation was shelled, after repeated pleas from UN observers to Israel to stop the strikes. This time around 60 civilians died, including 37 children.

This is also the second time in this war that Israel has hit UN outposts. Perhaps it's paranoia, which seems almost contagious in the region, but it's harder and harder for me to believe that these were accidents.

I went to the Dead Sea and Mount Nemo yesterday.

Here are some pictures from Petra and Wadi Rum and Amman:

This is from Petra, the pink city, built by the Nabateans and later annexed by the Romans:


This is a picture of Wadi Rum, where Lawrence of Arabia was based during the Arab Revolt of 1917-18:



This is downtown Amman, where a woman is selling ducks, chickens and baby chicks, the last of which have been dyed, presumably so that children will get their parents to buy them one. From what I saw, this worked, because this woman sold several chicks while I was there, whereas the woman down the street with plain yellow chicks wasn't selling any at all:

I just got back from Petra, Wadi Rum and Aqaba. I'm very tired now, but tomorrow, I'll write a little about it and upload a couple of pictures, insh'allah.

If you've ever seen the last Indiana Jones movie, you've seen the treasury at Petra...

There's been no news about Amal or a negotiation for the captured Israeli troops. There has been more and more talk about a multinational force, but in order to patrol the border and disarm Hizbollah, it would have to be enormous and belligerant.

Forcefully trying to disarm Hizbollah seems foolish, and if this is attempted by foreign troops, they will quickly find themselves in a hostile quagmire.

If Hizbollah is to be disarmed, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that would include regularizing the border between Israel and Lebanon, especially the Shebba Farms that Israel still occupies; prisoner exchanges; and folding Hizbollah forces into a national Lebanese army under the control of Beirut.

According to my sources, Condoleeza Rice has just arrived in Beirut, which is suprising since she was scheduled to only visit Israel. We'll see if anything comes of her visit...

Since this war started, I've been afraid of an escalation involving Syria. In the last few days, it's seemed that things will either get much better or much worse in the next couple of weeks:

Better: Hizbollah has reportedly given the two captured Israeli soldiers to the other Shia party, Amal, so that they can negotiate their release with Israel.

Olmert has said that Israel would accept an EU peacekeeping force.

Worse: Despite talk of an international force on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Israel continues to step up its attacks and creep farther and farther into Lebanon.

Syria has responded, saying, "If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within 20 kilometres of Damascus. What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

I hope that with the capture of two Hizbollah militants, Israel and Hizbollah can negotiate (directly, or through an intermediary like Amal or Germany) the release of prisoners on both sides as well as a general cease-fire.

Here is a piece in Ha'aretz that lays things out for Israeli readers:

This war must be stopped now and immediately. From the start it was unnecessary, even if its excuse was justified, and now is the time to end it. Every day raises its price for no reason, taking a toll in blood that gives Israel nothing tangible in return....

Israel went into the campaign on justified grounds and with foul means. It claims it has declared war on Hezbollah but, in practice, it is destroying Lebanon. It has gotten most of what it could have out of this war. The aerial "target bank" has mostly been covered. The air force could continue to sow destruction in the residential neighborhoods and empty offices and could also continue dropping dozens of tons of bombs on real or imagined bunkers and kill innocent Lebanese, but nothing good will come of it.

And in a wonderful little piece by Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert on casting the first stone, he shows that humans instinctively think of their actions as consequences of another's provocation and nearly always underestimate the strength of their response (it's worth reading in its entirety to see the experiments used):

After all, it is wrong to punch anyone except a puncher, and our language even has special words -- like "retaliation" and "retribution" and "revenge" -- whose common prefix is meant to remind us that a punch thrown second is legally and morally different than a punch thrown first.

That's why participants in every one of the globe's intractable conflicts -- from Ireland to the Middle East -- offer the even-numberedness of their punches as grounds for exculpation.

The problem with the principle of even-numberedness is that people count differently. Every action has a cause and a consequence: something that led to it and something that followed from it. But research shows that while people think of their own actions as the consequences of what came before, they think of other people's actions as the causes of what came later....

Examples aren't hard to come by. Shiites seek revenge on Sunnis for the revenge they sought on Shiites; Irish Catholics retaliate against the Protestants who retaliated against them; and since 1948, it's hard to think of any partisan in the Middle East who has done anything but play defense. In each of these instances, people on one side claim that they are merely responding to provocation and dismiss the other side's identical claim as disingenuous spin. But research suggests that these claims reflect genuinely different perceptions of the same bloody conversation....

If the first principle of legitimate punching is that punches must be even-numbered, the second principle is that an even-numbered punch may be no more forceful than the odd-numbered punch that preceded it. Legitimate retribution is meant to restore balance, and thus an eye for an eye is fair, but an eye for an eyelash is not. When the European Union condemned Israel for bombing Lebanon in retaliation for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, it did not question Israel's right to respond, but rather, its "disproportionate use of force." It is O.K. to hit back, just not too hard.

Research shows that people have as much trouble applying the second principle as the first. ...

Research teaches us that our reasons and our pains are more palpable, more obvious and real, than are the reasons and pains of others. This leads to the escalation of mutual harm, to the illusion that others are solely responsible for it and to the belief that our actions are justifiable responses to theirs.

Alan Dershiwitz has a disgusting piece in the Los Angeles Times in which he argues that many of the civilians in Lebanon and Palestine are getting what they deserve. He argues for a "continuum of civilianality," which would make many civilians fair game for Israeli strikes:

The Israeli army has given well-publicized notice to civilians to leave those areas of southern Lebanon that have been turned into war zones. Those who voluntarily remain behind have become complicit. Some -- those who cannot leave on their own -- should be counted among the innocent victims.

Why would people stay in the areas being bombarded by the Israelis? Many have no place to go; in the south, most of the bridges have been destroyed, trapping many families in their towns; and since Israel has been bombing civilian convoys, many are afraid to leave. And for good reason:

On Sunday [the Shaito family] gave up their stand, and all 18 members crammed into the family's white Mazda minivan. They planned to head north toward the relative safety of Beirut.

Within minutes they became casualties of Israel's 12-day-old bombardment of southern Lebanon, which the Israelis say they will continue indefinitely to destroy the military abilities of Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group. By the Lebanese official count, Israel's attacks have killed more than 380 Lebanese.

An Israeli rocket, which Lebanese officials said was likely fired from a helicopter, slammed into the center of the Shaitos' van as it sped round a bend a few miles west of their village, and the van crashed into a hillside. Three occupants were killed: an uncle, Mohammad; the grandmother, Nazira; and a Syrian man who had guarded their home. The missile also critically wounded Mrs. Shaito and her sister. Eleven others suffered less severe wounds.

"They said leave, and that's what we did," said Musbah Shaito, another uncle, as his niece, Heba, 16, cried hysterically behind him for her dead father, whose head was nearly blown off. This reporter watched as paramedics struggled to remove the dead from the van, but soon gave up, as an Israeli drone hovered overhead.

"This is what we got for listening to them," Mr. Shaito said, speaking of the Israelis.

This is what Mr Dershowitz's cold calculus means in human terms. That same day, Israel reported that they had hit "approximately 20 vehicles" suspected of "serving the terror organization in the launching of missiles at Israel, and were recognized fleeing from or staying at missile-launching areas."

Read that again. These vehicles were either fleeing or staying, so they were hit. These civilians were obviously "complicit," according to Alan Dershiwitz.

I arrived last night in Amman to my friend's house, where I've been received in the Arabic tradition, that is to say with open arms and unlimited hospitality. I'll be figuring out my ticket back to Paris and should be back in France in the next week or so.

Yesterday was a bloody day for Lebanon, even more so than "usual." At least 55 Lebanese civilians were killed in Israeli attacks, bringing the toll up to over 300. The Israelis also attacked Achrifieh, which is a chic Christian neighborhood of Beirut.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, has spoken out agains the assaults by Israel and Hizbollah:

Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians... Similarly, the bombardment of sites with alleged military significance, but resulting invariably in the killing of innocent civilians, is unjustifiable.

Responding to complaints that Israel has been using disproportionate force, Dan Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador to the UN, had the following to say: "You're damn right we are."

In other news, The New York Times published a letter to the editor that I sent them the other day.

I've been told that El Pais linked to my blog, but I haven't been able to find it, so a link would be appreciated.

An Australian friend of mine who has stayed in Beirut is also keeping a blog. You can check it out here.

I arrived safely last night to Damascus, and UNRWA has welcomed me with open arms. For one reason or another, the convoy split at the Syrian border, with the World Bank bus and one or two other buses going to the Dead Sea. I was told by UNDP and UNRWA in Syria that there were no hotels at the Dead Sea, so I stayed here at the UNRWA training center in Damascus.

Representatives from UNHCR, UNRWA and UNDP are arranging for me to leave to Amman today, since it seems that my Syrian transit visa is only good for 24 hours. I will be staying with friends in Amman until I can arrange for a flight back to Paris, which will probably take a few days. I will check in with the Amman UNESCO office today or tomorrow morning at the latest.

I will give a more detailed account when I get to Amman.

With the help of my friends all over the world and some connections from work, I've been lucky enough to find a way out of the country in a UN convoy. My colleagues and friends at UNESCO especially, and some diplomats and friends from Iraq and Iceland, have been very helpful, and I appreciate this greatly. It is in situations like this that you realize how much your friends and family really care about you. My family has been worried sick but have done everything they can to help me leave.

So to everyone who has worried about me, made telephone calls and sent emails for me, given me advice, checked up, sent encouraging words or called just to say that they're thinking of me, thank you. Thank you very much.

I almost regret leaving, because many of my friends here cannot. I have the privilege of having the right color passport, or in the case of my Palestinian friends, of having a passport at all. So it is both with relief and with a heavy heart that I leave this city that I love so much and all of my friends here, whom I'll miss very much.

I'll probably spend most if not all of tomorrow in the bus or on the border tomorrow, but when I arrive in Amman, I'll post an update of the voyage.

I just ran into a woman and her 4 children who has just come from Tyre. The first thing she asked was whether there were bombs here too. She didn't speak any English (only Arabic and German), so I had to interpret in bad German for my friend who was trying to help her get in touch with the German embassy (she and her children are German citizens).

We gave her the number for the German embassy in Beirut and sent the Germans an email with her information so that she could get evacuated. She told me that she didn't care if she went to France or Italy or Germany or wherever, so long as her kids could get out of Lebanon. Tyre has been bombed many times in the last few days. She has a 2-month old baby in addition to her three other children children, who are 9, 8 and 5 years old.

My Dutch friend just crossed the Syrian border. She was stuck there for a while, because there were so many people crossing: Dutch, Brazilian, Czech and Swiss busses among others. She said that the road was fine and that all was calm, since the Israelis must know that a lot of foreign nationals are leaving by road.

I'm watching al-Jazeera, and they are reporting that Hizbollah has just downed an Israeli F-16.

People have been streaming in from the South and from Dahiye, the southern suburb of Beirut that's been continuously hit by the Israelis, so the building where I'm staying is getting fuller and fuller. At all hours of the night, there are groups of people sitting in the hallways smoking or talking or worrying.

I haven't gone into Dahiye, but a friend who lives there has told me what it looks like. Here are some pictures from the Times:

The American embassy is a mess this morning. They would not let anyone inside the embassy; instead, they handed out registration forms and a list of things to bring in a "small bag" in an evacuation. We were told that "hopefully" there would be an evacuation this week, probably to Cyprus, however, they did not know how. To evacuate, it is necessary to pay, but if you don't have enough money, you must sign a promissory note. The rules for who can evacuate are this: American citizens only. If your children are not citizens, they can come, so long as they are minors. Non-American parents who have children (minors) that are American nationals must choose which parent will go with the children and which will stay. Green card holders cannot go. Non-American spouses of American citizens cannot go. Families will be split up.

The French are not splitting up families and have already started their evacuation. French residents, myself included, are not allowed to go. It is unclear if they are leaving by air, land or sea, but I don't think that it's by sea. The Dutch left this morning by bus to Aleppo. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that the Italians are stuck in a bus, because they cannot leave by sea due to the Israeli shelling of the ports. I'm not sure if they are stuck at a port or if they detoured from the port and are trying to leave by land now. Two British warships arrived last night, although they have not called my friend with a British passport. There is no word from the Australian embassy, and the Jordanians evacuated by bus several days ago, although a Jordanian friend of mine missed that bus, because she has two passports and was not registered with the Jordanians.

UNESCO is planning on evacuating people out of Beirut to the city of Jbeil (Byblos), but there is no word on leaving Lebanon.

It seems like none of the Western countries were able to negotiate safe passage by sea with the Israelis, which is highly surprising but would explain why the Israelis decided to hit so many ports this weekend. The word is that 8 Canadians were killed last night, although again, it's impossible for me to confirm this.

I am thinking about taking advantage of the lull in attacks on the northern road into Syria to try to get to the border and bribe my way into a transit visa so that I can get to Turkey. A Dutch friend of mine who evacuated this morning with her compatriots told me that the road was passable. Prices seem to be dropping a bit for taxis, since the Israelis have taken a break from bombing the roads, so it looks like a taxi to Tripoli would be around $100, and probably a similar price for the rest of the trip to Syria. Once inside Syria, the prices should be normal, which is to say cheap. From the Turkish border, I could stay with friends in Mersin and then make my way to Istanbul, where I have friends and could negotiate a flight to Paris with one of the two Turkish Airways tickets that I have. I don't really fancy waiting a week or more for the Americans, and once in Cyprus, I'll be on my own, and I'm pretty sure that Turkish Airways does not fly to Cyprus.

I was called this morning at the school where I had taken my first Arabic class the morning Hizbollah attacked Israel. The woman from the school asked if I was leaving or not, so that they could try to organize themselves for the classes that had already begun. I told her that I was not sure when I would be leaving but that I was pretty sure that I would not be continuing my classes with them. She told me to be careful and said that she would pray for me to get out safely. Then she left me with a touching but disconcerting request: "Please pray for my country." I can't remember the last time I prayed, but I said I would.

Apparently the US is sending an "assessment team" to Beirut, which may or may not have already arrived. This is the email (they still haven't managed to get with the program and start sending text messages instead of emails) they sent me today:

The US Department of State and the US Department of Defense continue working on a plan to help American citizens who wish to depart Lebanon to leave in a secure and orderly manner. To assist in the development of that operation, the U.S. Government is sending an assessment team to Beirut to facilitate the safe departure of Americans who wish to leave.

The Embassy is open and will remain open at this time in support of American citizens in Lebanon. American citizens may register by contacting the Embassy in Beirut directly, or through the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs registration site at http://travelregistration.state.gov. For updated information, visit the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs website at http://travel.state.gov.

Updated information on travel and security in Lebanon may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States, or, from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. Additional information, as it becomes available will be released via the media, Embassy warden announcements and on the Department and Embassy websites.

I'll try to get aboard any evacuation ship to Cyprus I can, but there are scores of thousands of foreigners here, and any evacuation effort will most likely take several days, and families with children and medical cases will be the first to leave. I'll sign the promissory note saying that I'll pay the government back, but I still find it scandalous.

I'm a little worried about how much I'll be able to take back with me. I've got a lot of books for my thesis, which I'm supposed to defend in September. But what I'm really worried about are friends of mine who cannot leave Lebanon. Many have headed for towns in the mountains, but it's hard to say how safe (and for how long) these places will end up being.

Otherwise, I've been staying away from the news today, reading and listening to music. I did go down to al Manara (the lighthouse), which was hit by Israel yesterday and is about a 7-10 minute walk from my place. I was actually surprised that the lighthouse was not more damaged (only the top seemed to be damaged). Here's what it looks like:



My friend is going back to what's left of his neighborhood in Dahiye (the residential suburb being called a "Hizbollah stronghold" where Hizbollah's offices are). He's going to try to take some pictures, which I'll try to post here.

Otherwise, here is an account of what's happening here by Robert Fisk, who lives in Beirut.

Here is an interesting interview with the co-director of an American NGO that actually talks with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran.

While I was buying a cheese and zataar manouche today, a guy came up and gave this flyer to a friend with me:



The snake in the corner is Nasrallah, and the text says, The resistance defends the nation? The nation is sacrificed by the resistance... (al maqawama tahmi wattan? al wattan tahiya al maqawama...)

We passed the flyer around so that everyone could see, then two Lebanese officers from the police station came by and asked my friend for his paper, which he took to mean papers, starting to get out his passport. They said no, and told him that they wanted to see the flyer. They inspected it and then asked him where it came from. A few minutes later, a young kid about ten years old came up and asked to see it too. Then the guy who gave us the flyer came back with more, passing them out. He and his friends started loudly discussing how the Lebanese people didn't need Hizbollah.

It's hard to say if they were sincere, because there was a police station within earshot. They could have been trying to find people with anti-Hizbollah sentiments, because after all, the other day, Nasrallah did say, in a pronouncement that would make Bush proud: if you're against us, you're against Lebanon.

I meant to post this last night, but I was too tired. This is a picture of Bliss Street, the main drag for students at the American University of Beirut in Hamra. On Friday and Saturday nights, it is usually packed with young people having food at the local diners Zataar wa Zeit (Zataar and Oil) and B to B (Breakfast to Breakfast) after a night of dancing.

To give you an idea of how things have slowed down here, there was no one there last night, and no cars either:

I registered with the French embassy as a resident of Paris today and then decided to go for lunch and a coffee. As I was having a beer (instead of a coffee), my friends and I heard an explosion that sounded louder and closer than they have so far. It turns out that the Israelis have bombed Beirut's main port and the neighborhood of al Manara, which is on the coast and about a ten minute walk from my place here.

The ports of Jounieh, Jbeil (Byblos) and Tripoli (all north of Beirut) were also hit. As I write, all of these places are being hit again. The Israelis are not really discriminating based on sect; they are bombing all of Lebanon's infrastructure, making good on their promise to set Lebanon back 20 years.

Balbaak was also hit. The house of a leader in Hizbollah was hit, but it's unclear if he was harmed or not.

The word out at all of the European embassies is that the European, American, Canadian, British and Australian embassies are going to start evacuating by boat to Cyprus starting on Monday. However, I'm not sure how we're supposed to board these boats if the Israelis keep bombing all the ports in the area.

A lot of people are still trying to leave by car, but the roads to Syria are very dangerous, because the Israelis are continually bombing them. Normally a taxi to Damascus costs about $15 or $20; yesterday, people were paying $200 to $300; and today, people are paying between $800 and $1,000 per person.

UPDATE: They just hit the port (or maybe Manara) again, and perhaps I'm just being paranoid, but I have the feeling that the Israelis are doing this to make it more difficult for Westerners to leave...

I've been pretty disappointed with the US Government in general and the Embassy here in Beirut in particular. They've been keeping office hours (when I called them right after the airport was bombed, they said to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open), with the exception of being open today, and have been less than helpful in general.

I registered with them, and they've been sending me "Warden Messages," by email. I've yet to receive any phone messages or calls, so I'm not sure what those who don't have access to email are supposed to do. In any case, I received a message about a "repatriation" plan to a neighboring country (most likely, a boat to Cyprus). I was suprised to find out that this service is not free. Out of a 7-line message from the State Department, 4 lines are about paying them back for this service rendered:

The Department of State reminds American citizens that the U.S. government does not provide no-cost transportation but does have the authority to provide repatriation loans to those in financial need. For the portion of your trip directly handled by the U.S. Government we will ask you to sign a promissory note and we will bill you at a later date. In a subsequent message, when we have specific details about the transporation arrangments, we will inform you about the costs you will incur. We will also work with commercial aircraft to ensure that they have adequate flights to help you depart Cyprus and connect to your final destination.

In lighter news, this dangerous militant, Abu Biss al Bussy Qatti, was found hiding in our bathroom, curled up next to the bidet:

According to al Manar, Israel has confirmed the sinking of one of their shiups off the coast of Lebanon. Nasrallah, after surviving an Israeli attack unhurt, is speaking, and he is saying that he does not believe in an international community and that he is sorry for the loss of Lebanese lives. He is calling on the Lebanese people to go take a look at the sinking ship before it is submerged in the Mediterannean. He is saying that like before (when Hezbollah forced Israel out of southern Lebanon in 2000), the Lebanese people will prevail.

His message to Israel: "Your new government is incompetent, does not know how to measure proportionality and is very weak and inexperienced. ... When you hit Beirut, we will hit Haifa. When you hit Dahiye, we will hit Haifa. ... We can reach Haifa, and what's after Haifa and what's after what's after Haifa."

UPDATE: The Israelis are claiming that the warship was "slightly damaged." Al Jazeera is saying that Hezbollah has sunk the ship. Lebanese forces are, according to Al Jazeera, "fending off amphibious Israeli forces" off the coast of Saida.

The strike on the electricity transformers has taken out electricity in all of Beirut. I didn't notice at first, because I was at a friend's place, and there's a generator in the apartment building. The hallways of the building have been frantic since the bombings early this morning at around 3 or 4 a.m. People were leaving, but I think that a lot of people are coming back after the electricity went out in the city, since there's a generator. I ran into a family of American Arabs from Michigan in the lobby of the apartment building, who has just arrived in Lebanon for work. Their family lives in Baalbek and the south, so they don't have anywhere to go, since both areas are being shelled by the Israelis.

Things are tense here in the city, because it's hard to sleep with the shelling during the night and then it's disconcerting that the electricity is out now, also. Everyone has been really helpful and nice, worrying about me since I'm foreign. I think I will continue staying at my friend's place, if only because they have a generator, which means that the AC will be working.

Some people are getting really worried about this spreading to Syria, and I think that they're right to worry about that. I'm afraid that the Syrians will do something stupid, and that the Israelis will start bombing Damascus. Israel has already retreated troops from Gaza, but this is obviously so that they can reinforce the reserves in Lebanon, and probably get ready to hit Syria. Damascus, I think, believes that they have Teheran's support, but it wouldn't surprise me if Iran stays out of this one, particularly if Syria hits Israel first. The Iranians know that if they get overtly involved, then the US will use that as an excuse to start the regime changes in Damascus and Tehran that they've been hoping for.

There are some who think that the UN will be able to broker a cease-fire this weekend, but I'm not very optimistic, particularly if Annan's envoys focus their efforts on the Lebanese government instead of going directly to Nasrallah. At this point, it seems unlikely that either Israel or Hezbollah will be willing to back down any time soon. I predict that if and when this spreads to Syria, Western governments will start evacuating their nationals.

I'm more awake now after a couple of hours of sleep. It looks like what woke me up this morning was the tail end of last night's attack this morning. Saida was shelled last night from the sea, while Dahiye (southern suburb of Beirut controlled by Hizbollah) was hit again, along with the road to Damascus and the airport.

Dan Halutz, chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, has said that Israel will "take Lebanon back 20 years." Beirut in 1986 was not a good place to be. If you have any doubts about that, a quick look at Robert Fisk's journalism from the period will change your mind.

The electricity went out earlier this morning, but only for a minute or two. I'm a little worried about the Israelis are going to start destroying Lebanon's infrastructure, which would mean that I'd be without electricity.

I went out for a drink last night, where I ran into someone from the British embassy. A discussion with him did not really make me feel any better. He was telling me how many British citizens here have this idea that there must be Black Hawks poised to break the blockade and evacuate the crown's own. This is not the case. At least not yet. All of the embassies that I've spoken to (US, French and UK) have said that the main course of action now is to just wait and see, trying to stay away from areas that might be subject to Israeli shelling. He also told me that travelling to Damascus was a bad idea, since people were driving like fools trying to get to the border, and there's a chance that the Syrians might turn you back anyway, depending on your passport. Last night's attack on the road to Syria showed that his advice and my gut feeling against Syria were indeed correct.

Looking at the western press, there's something that keeps bothering me. I keep hearing that a Hizbollah stronghold has been targeted by Israel. That's one way of putting it. Another would be the residential Shi'ite suburb of Beirut where Hizbollah has a lot of support, as well as their offices and television station. I can't help but think that people hear "Hizbollah stronghold" and imagine some sort of a militarty base. This is not the case. Dahiye is a residential suburb where families live and children go to school. Likewise in the south of the country. On one of the bridges that was bombed in the south, you can see the skid marks of a car that didn't stop in time after the explosion. The car, and everyone in it, fell 50 feet to the ground.

These are the kinds of people that are being harmed:



I'm going to go out and get something to eat, but in the meantime, looking at some of the consequences of this conflict is a good idea.

It's a quarter to five, and I just woke up. I thought I heard a loud noise but then wasn't sure. Now I'm sure there was an explosion. It sounds like neighbors pulling down their garage door fast. I'm pretty sure that it sounds like that, because it's not very close, because I can't see anything, except for people waking up to go outside and look around. I assume that the Israelis have hit Dahiye again, the Shi'ite suburb to the south of the airport. I'm watching al-Jazeera now, and it's showing the bomb scene in Beirut (or maybe it was just a sonic boom?), but I can't make out the neighborhood, because my Arabic isn't good enough to keep up with the scrolling headlines. There is a picture of a young man in his early twenties or late teens. He's covered in blood, but he seems to be unhurt, so it's hard to tell if it's someone else's blood or if it's his.

I'm sure that the news will get to the English language channels in a few hours. Last night, the airport was hit again. Other targets include the main road from the airport to the south and the road from Beirut to Damascus. I don't know if any people were killed on the way to Damascus, but Israel has confirmed hitting the road five times, and I know a lot of people were taking that road, because it's pretty much the only way out of the country since the ports have been blockaded and the airport closed. Apparently the fuel stores at the Jiyyeh power plant south of the city was also hit.

All of the Israeli talking heads keep talking about cutting off supply lines for Syria, but this is absurd. We all know where Hizbollah's money and weapons come from: Syria. Hitting the airport and blockading the ports, effectively trapping everyone inside Lebanon, is meant to make a point to Beirut: look what we can do.

I think the latest attacks are over, so I'm going to try to go back to bed. I haven't gotten much sleep in the last day or two. Here's a map that shows (circled and in red) where I am in Beirut and where the airport is. Compared to American cities, or even Paris, Beirut is a small city.

I've packed up my things in case the worst happens and I need to leave Beirut in a hurry. I've also registered with the embassy, but they've not been very helpful and have given me no information whatsoever. (When I called this morning after the bombing of the airport, they told me to call back at 8:30, because they weren't open.)

It seems that Israel has blockaded all Lebanese ports, so the route that I was keeping in mind to Cyprus is closed. The only option now is at the Syrian border, but again, I'm hesitant to try that, because the borders are already packed and I have my doubts about the Syrians letting me into the country unless I'm part of an official foreign convoy.

Twenty-seven Lebanese people were killed in last night's and this morning's attacks, and from what I can see, an Israeli woman was killed last night by Hizbollah rocket attacks.

Beirut, or at least my neighborhood, Hamra, is calm. Classes were not cancelled at the Lebanese American University, which may or may not be a bellwether for the situation as a whole.

Last night I went to bed after no news here. Israel had bombed several cities in the south, including Nabatiya, the city where I spent last weekend swimming and enjoying the sun. I woke up this morning to a call from a friend's parents in Amman, who told us that Israel had just bombed the Bierut airport, which is now closed.

I called the US embassy, but they told me that they're closed and that I should call back at 8:30.

The Lebanese emvoy to the US, Farid Abboud, was recalled to Beirut for saying that Israel should exchange prisoners.

I haven't been able to get into Syria for the last few days, so I have a hard time believing that I'll be able to get into Damascus. The airport is the only real way out for me, unless I can take a boat from the north to Cyprus, where I could get a flight back to Paris.

Israel is saying that the airport is the hub for terrorist weapons, which is bullshit, because everything most likely comes through the Syrian ground border. This is to show Beirut that Israel means business. I hope that it's a bluff, and that this will be the only real attacks north of Hizbollah-controlled parts of the south. I also hope that there will not be inter-Lebanese fighting...

It seems that Hizbollah has attacked Israel and taken two soldiers. According to the CNN correspondant in Beirut, there are celabratory gunshots in the southern suburbs. I can't hear any, but then again, I'm in Hamra and not in the Shi'ite suburbs. And honestly, if I hadn't turned on the television, I wouldn't know that anything was happening.

I was supposed to go down to the south of Lebanon this weekend, but depending on how things play out in the next few days, I think I'll probably wait to see how things go before driving down there.

I know that it's easier for the IDF to attack Gaza than it is to launch a full attack against Lebanon (there have already been a few air strikes inside lebanese territory on Hizbollah targets), but I'm not terribly optimistic about Israel's response to such an attack, considering their response to the recent Hamas attack.

CNN seems intent on stressing the "celabratory gunfire in Beirut," which is misleading at best. The Beirut correspondant said that there was gunfire in the southern suburbs, which are bastions of Shi'ite Hezbollah supporters. From where I am, Hamra, which is the prodominantly Muslim neighborhood where the Lebanese American University and the American University in Beirut are, is calm and gunfire-free.

I spent Friday night and Saturday morning in a small oasis. A friend of a friend's parents own a beautiful house in the Shi'ite town Nabatiya. Driving into town, the streets were lined with pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah flags and pictures of Lebanese Shi'a martyrs. The Party of God's merchandise was on sale, including flags and t-shirts and even a kite.

But we were insulated from all this within the confines of a luxurious house, where we swam and drank mixed drinks to the sound of the evening call to prayer. Unfortunately, we had to leave early on Saturday morning, so I wasn't really able to explore the South, but I will return soon enough.

Sometimes it's interesting to go back and look at things you've written previously. Last night, I came across a piece on the Middle East (and Lebanon specifically) that I wrote when the US was patting itself on the back for pushing the region toward democracy.

Here it is:

Objects in Motion

January 2005

Reading the news in the English language world today gives one the impression that democracy is spreading like wildfire in the Middle East ? that "freedom is on the march." Even many of those against the war in Iraq are starting to think that although they don?t like President Bush's methods, it's hard to argue with results. Apparently, the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent toppling of its mustachioed tyrant have pushed the Arab world in the direction of democracy, and as any first year physics student will tell you, objects in motion tend to stay in motion. So, according to Newton's first law as applied to geopolitics, the Middle East was an object at rest, which would stay at rest until acted upon by an exterior force, that is to say, the United States.

Another part of Newton's law is that objects in motion tend to continue in a straight line. Thus set in motion towards democracy, the Middle East cannot help but continue this noble trajectory. So, we hear, Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq have all had democratic elections; Egypt and Saudi Arabia have begun to inch their way in democracy?s direction; and finally, the Lebanese population has decided to throw off the yoke of Syrian influence in order to fulfill its inevitable destiny of self-determination.

Recent Elections

Is this true? Has freedom been brought with cannons; has democracy been exported like processed goods? To be sure, the fall of the Taliban is a good start for Afghanistan; however, with the exception of Kabul, most of the country is currently in the hands of warlords and Taliban returnees. The west has a short attention span, and as a result, women are being forced to don their Burkahs again, and the opium trade is flourishing. The National Human Development Report, published this month by the United Nations Development Programme, describes Afghanistan as "a fragile nation still at odds if no longer at war with itself that could easily slip back into chaos and abject poverty."

Democracy's next stop is Palestine where the recent democratic elections saw the ascendance of Mr. Abbas, who was elected with a broad base of support from across the board. This, however, was due to Arafat's death, not the invasion of Iraq. Furthermore, although most Americans don?t know it, Palestinians have had democratic elections before. They were held in 1996, and Arafat won 88 percent of the vote. His opponent was a woman named Sahima Khalil who headed a local NGO. A total of 692 candidates ran for the 88 seats of the Palestinian Legislative Council.

Which brings us to the elections in Iraq. While the elections were an enormous step for Iraqis, there were also enormous problems. Security was so bad that most of the candidates refused to campaign or even publicly admit to running for office for fear of assassination. While writing this, I learn that 47 people were killed by a suicide bomber in a Shiite Mosque in Mosul at a funeral, as was the Baghdad Chief of Police with his driver and guard in a separate incident. Add this to the 105 people killed two weeks ago outside a medical clinic in the town of Hillah, south of Baghdad, and democracy's victory dance seems somehow less convincing.

It's currently too early to know what to make of the political reforms in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Time will tell if Cairo's move to allow a multiparty presidential election is genuine or just window dressing designed to give the presidency to Mubarak's son Gamal. The amendment to Egypt's constitution does not set term limits (Mubarak, who is 76, is on his fourth term), and it remains to be seen if the banned Muslim Brotherhood, the largest Islamic group in the country, will be allowed to participate or if the government will release imprisoned opposition leaders like Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, who was arrested last January. Likewise, it is difficult to say whether the proposal for limited municipal elections in Saudi Arabia and Riyadh's promise that women will get to vote not this time, but next time, is genuine reform or a charade to smooth over relations with the West, and namely the US. Furthermore, it is difficult to say if the invasion of Iraq served as a catalyst for these proposed changes or if they occurred independent of (or even despite) American intervention.


Lebanon and the "Cedar Revolution"

As for Lebanon, images of Beirut's youth, both Muslim and Christian, banding together and waving cedar flags are comforting to the West, especially after last year's UN Security Council Resolution 1559 called for the Syrian government to withdraw its 14,000 troops and cease its interference in Lebanese affairs. The same resolution called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the Shia Islamic party/militia accredited with pushing Israel out of Southern Lebanon. The opposition demonstrations, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami (who was reelected by the Parliament nine days later), drew immediate comparisons to the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, leading many in the western press to dub the protests the "Cedar Revolution" and give the credit to American intervention in Iraq. The truth, however, seems to be much more complicated.

Opposition to the current government in Beirut and its backers in Damascus, has been building for some time now. It followed the September 2004 move by Syria to influence the Lebanese National Assembly to amend the constitution to give pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud an additional three years in office, lengthening his mandate from six to nine years. This was the second time that Syria had pressured Lebanon's Parliament into making constitutional changes in favor of Lahoud, the first being in 1998 by allowing him to run for president immediately after resigning as the head of the Lebanese Armed Forces. Finally, former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who resigned in protest of the constitutional amendment in 2004, was killed in a car bombing last month. This is what sparked large demonstrations against the government and Syria in Beirut. It is true, however, that the US, along with France, supported the UN Security Council Resolution calling for the withdrawal of Syrian forces. But unless the assassination, which has been largely attributed to Syria by outsiders as well as the Lebanese opposition, was the work of the US, it's hard to say how the Bush administration can take all the credit for the Lebanese opposition movement.

Lebanese history and politics are very complicated, and the huge pro-Syria counter-protest organized by Hezbollah this week illustrated this fact. Lebanon, a country that is a little over two-thirds the size of Connecticut and has just under 4 million inhabitants, is highly sectarian. There are 17 officially recognized religions in the tiny country, and the government is based on what is called a sectarian balance. This means that the constitution stipulates the religion of the major office holders and the religious makeup of the Parliament. Concretely, this means that the president is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim and the position of Speaker of the Parliament is reserved for a Shia Muslim. Likewise, the Parliament itself is balanced along sectarian lines, with the 128 seats being split evenly between Christians and Muslims and being subdivided to allow for 27 seats each for Shia and Sunni Muslims and 8 and 2 seats for the Druze and Alawi Muslim sects, respectively. Of the 64 Christian seats, 34 are reserved for Maronites. Although there has not been an official census since 1932, about 59 percent of Lebanese citizens are thought to be Muslim.

In addition to the 17 sects, there are also as many as 1 million Syrian workers and about 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The Palestinians, a largely Sunni group that makes up over 10 percent of population in Lebanon, suffer from the delicate sectarian balancing act. Even those born in Lebanon are not granted Lebanese citizenship; they are barred from 73 job categories (including medicine, law and engineering), and are not allowed to own property. Unlike other foreigners in Lebanon, they are denied access to the public health system. Moreover, they are refused work permits and the right to own land. Ostensibly, this is in solidarity for the Palestinians' right to return to the occupied territories or within Israel, but in reality, it is more likely due to the fact that allowing Palestinians to participate in the running of the country would tip the balance in favor of the Muslims in general and the Sunni in particular.

This multifaceted mishmash that constitutes Lebanese society means that things are much more complex than the pictures of the "Cedar Revolution" let on. For starters, the Syrian force was installed in Lebanon for a reason: to end the civil war and stabilize the war-torn country. And while Damascus certainly takes advantage of its influence in Lebanon with less than altruistic intentions, it is unclear what a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would mean exactly. While the Druze, the Christians and the Maronites, and, to a lesser extent, the Sunnis, are all united against what they perceive as a common enemy, it is impossible to know if this unity will continue once Syria leaves, thus creating a power vacuum. This is why not all of the pro-Syria protesters are Hezbollah supporters or even Shia. Some Palestinians, for example, want Syrian troops to stay, simply because they fear another civil war as a result of the Syrian departure.

So before the world starts patting the Bush administration on the back, we should stop to reflect on the causes, and more important the consequences, of the current events in the Middle East.


Taking off our glasses

This remains true for Iraq and is equally true for the potential hornet's nest that is Lebanon. I would like to hope that the Lebanese have finally renounced sectarian violence after 15 years of civil war and almost as many years of peace, and that the power vacuum left by the departing Syrians might be filled by a more democratic representation of the people. I'd like to hope that the Palestinians will be afforded the same rights as the other groups in Lebanon, and that the country will finally be mature enough to see past the sectarian politics of the "confessional system," leaving people free to vote for policies instead of religions.

Likewise, I hope that Afghanistan will be able to stabilize itself with the help of the West as well as that of the Middle East. And I hope that Palestine and Israel will come to a peaceful and democratic conclusion to the past violence, and that Iraqis will exercise their will with voting booths instead of car bombs. (Incidentally, a referendum on the American military presence would be an excellent start.) I hope that women and men in Egypt and Saudi Arabia will get a real chance to vote for what they believe in and that if given that chance, they will not vote to abolish democracy.

But I?m not so sure that these hopes are realistic; I'm afraid that some of them, if not most of them, are premature. So, in the meantime, we should stop counting our chicks before they hatch and instead start protecting the eggs. This means trying to understand the region and, to my mind, admitting that maybe democracy can't be exported like Coca-Cola or dropped attached to smart bombs. Democracy must be grown at home, and to do so, the soil needs to be tended to and the seeds watered with care. This means acknowledging and supporting the democratic movements that have sprouted through the cracks of the authoritarian asphalt, like the Palestinian elections in 1996; Qatar's independent media and 1999 elections for the Municipal Council; and Bahrain's 2003 Advisory Council elections in which six women were elected. In all three of these elections, both men and women were allowed to vote.

Another important way for the West to support homegrown democracy is to help independent local media outlets in the region. And in order to do this, the US, in particular, needs to admit that while it regularly receives harsh criticism from the Qatari television outlet, Al Jazeera, so do the governments of Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Algeria and the Palestinian Authority, amongst others. In the end, offending governments is sometimes the sign of a strong independent media. So rather than bombing the Qatari news channel, as a Pentagon spokesman admitted the US had done in Afghanistan, and pressuring Doha into selling the station, the US should be trying to support more independent voices in the region like Al Jazeera.

Supporting democracy also means supporting the right to true self-determination in the countries that have been objects of the Bush administration's nation-building projects ? even if the Iraqis vote the US forces, military bases and all, out for good. It means using American power evenhandedly and standing up for real freedom and democracy, even when it might not be convenient for short-term American self-interest, as in Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, true democracy in the Middle East requires the West, and especially the US, to take off its rose colored glasses when looking at the region. The US should have known that it would not be greeted with open arms in Iraq and that the occupation, and all the things that have come with it, would quickly turn many Iraqis against America. The US should also know that any belligerent behavior or rhetoric toward Iran will only result in an across-the-board nuclear solidarity throughout the Islamic Republic. And finally, the US should know that Lebanon is a nation walking on a tightrope, and that if it shakes the rope and disturbs the performer's delicate balance, it should make sure that there's a safety net below. One idea would be to support broadening the mandate of the UN forces already in Lebanon, and filling their ranks with troops from countries seen as being neutral in the situation -- Scandinavian countries, for example -- in order to diffuse any potential conflict between the different sects.

It's too soon to say what the long-term effects of the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq will be, but one thing is sure: the Middle East was not an object at rest, which the US hurtled toward democracy with strong but clumsy hands. The region had already begun its slow and uphill journey toward freedom in places like Qatar, Bahrain and Palestine, and whether this movement has been helped or hindered by American intervention remains to be seen. The important thing is for the US to be evenhanded and realistic, knowing that there is only so much it can do with its already tarnished legitimacy, which resulted from its bogus rationale for war in Iraq and its subsequent utilization of torture. It's better to be pleasantly surprised if the worst-case scenario doesn't come true than to have our rose colored glasses blown off our smug, self-righteous faces by a volley of car bombs.

For the second time in ten years, the village of Qana, where Jesus is said to have turned water into wine, was shelled by Israel. In 1996, during Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath, more than 100 Lebanese civilians were killed when the UN installation was shelled.

Again this week, the UN installation was shelled, after repeated pleas from UN observers to Israel to stop the strikes. This time around 60 civilians died, including 37 children.

This is also the second time in this war that Israel has hit UN outposts. Perhaps it's paranoia, which seems almost contagious in the region, but it's harder and harder for me to believe that these were accidents.

I went to the Dead Sea and Mount Nemo yesterday.

Here are some pictures from Petra and Wadi Rum and Amman:

This is from Petra, the pink city, built by the Nabateans and later annexed by the Romans:


This is a picture of Wadi Rum, where Lawrence of Arabia was based during the Arab Revolt of 1917-18:



This is downtown Amman, where a woman is selling ducks, chickens and baby chicks, the last of which have been dyed, presumably so that children will get their parents to buy them one. From what I saw, this worked, because this woman sold several chicks while I was there, whereas the woman down the street with plain yellow chicks wasn't selling any at all:

I just got back from Petra, Wadi Rum and Aqaba. I'm very tired now, but tomorrow, I'll write a little about it and upload a couple of pictures, insh'allah.

If you've ever seen the last Indiana Jones movie, you've seen the treasury at Petra...

There's been no news about Amal or a negotiation for the captured Israeli troops. There has been more and more talk about a multinational force, but in order to patrol the border and disarm Hizbollah, it would have to be enormous and belligerant.

Forcefully trying to disarm Hizbollah seems foolish, and if this is attempted by foreign troops, they will quickly find themselves in a hostile quagmire.

If Hizbollah is to be disarmed, there needs to be a diplomatic solution that would include regularizing the border between Israel and Lebanon, especially the Shebba Farms that Israel still occupies; prisoner exchanges; and folding Hizbollah forces into a national Lebanese army under the control of Beirut.

According to my sources, Condoleeza Rice has just arrived in Beirut, which is suprising since she was scheduled to only visit Israel. We'll see if anything comes of her visit...

Since this war started, I've been afraid of an escalation involving Syria. In the last few days, it's seemed that things will either get much better or much worse in the next couple of weeks:

Better: Hizbollah has reportedly given the two captured Israeli soldiers to the other Shia party, Amal, so that they can negotiate their release with Israel.

Olmert has said that Israel would accept an EU peacekeeping force.

Worse: Despite talk of an international force on the Lebanese-Israeli border, Israel continues to step up its attacks and creep farther and farther into Lebanon.

Syria has responded, saying, "If Israel makes a land entry into Lebanon, they can get to within 20 kilometres of Damascus. What will we do? Stand by with our arms folded? Absolutely not. Without any doubt Syria will intervene in the conflict."

I hope that with the capture of two Hizbollah militants, Israel and Hizbollah can negotiate (directly, or through an intermediary like Amal or Germany) the release of prisoners on both sides as well as a general cease-fire.

Here is a piece in Ha'aretz that lays things out for Israeli readers:

This war must be stopped now and immediately. From the start it was unnecessary, even if its excuse was justified, and now is the time to end it. Every day raises its price for no reason, taking a toll in blood that gives Israel nothing tangible in return....

Israel went into the campaign on justified grounds and with foul means. It claims it has declared war on Hezbollah but, in practice, it is destroying Lebanon. It has gotten most of what it could have out of this war. The aerial "target bank" has mostly been covered. The air force could continue to sow destruction in the residential neighborhoods and empty offices and could also continue dropping dozens of tons of bombs on real or imagined bunkers and kill innocent Lebanese, but nothing good will come of it.

And in a wonderful little piece by Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert on casting the first stone, he shows that humans instinctively think of their actions as consequences of another's provocation and nearly always underestimate the strength of their response (it's worth reading in its entirety to see the experiments used):

After all, it is wrong to punch anyone except a puncher, and our language even has special words -- like "retaliation" and "retribution" and "revenge" -- whose common prefix is meant to remind us that a punch thrown second is legally and morally different than a punch thrown first.

That's why participants in every one of the globe's intractable conflicts -- from Ireland to the Middle East -- offer the even-numberedness of their punches as grounds for exculpation.

The problem with the principle of even-numberedness is that people count differently. Every action has a cause and a consequence: something that led to it and something that followed from it. But research shows that while people think of their own actions as the consequences of what came before, they think of other people's actions as the causes of what came later....

Examples aren't hard to come by. Shiites seek revenge on Sunnis for the revenge they sought on Shiites; Irish Catholics retaliate against the Protestants who retaliated against them; and since 1948, it's hard to think of any partisan in the Middle East who has done anything but play defense. In each of these instances, people on one side claim that they are merely responding to provocation and dismiss the other side's identical claim as disingenuous spin. But research suggests that these claims reflect genuinely different perceptions of the same bloody conversation....

If the first principle of legitimate punching is that punches must be even-numbered, the second principle is that an even-numbered punch may be no more forceful than the odd-numbered punch that preceded it. Legitimate retribution is meant to restore balance, and thus an eye for an eye is fair, but an eye for an eyelash is not. When the European Union condemned Israel for bombing Lebanon in retaliation for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, it did not question Israel's right to respond, but rather, its "disproportionate use of force." It is O.K. to hit back, just not too hard.

Research shows that people have as much trouble applying the second principle as the first. ...

Research teaches us that our reasons and our pains are more palpable, more obvious and real, than are the reasons and pains of others. This leads to the escalation of mutual harm, to the illusion that others are solely responsible for it and to the belief that our actions are justifiable responses to theirs.

Alan Dershiwitz has a disgusting piece in the Los Angeles Times in which he argues that many of the civilians in Lebanon and Palestine are getting what they deserve. He argues for a "continuum of civilianality," which would make many civilians fair game for Israeli strikes:

The Israeli army has given well-publicized notice to civilians to leave those areas of southern Lebanon that have been turned into war zones. Those who voluntarily remain behind have become complicit. Some -- those who cannot leave on their own -- should be counted among the innocent victims.

Why would people stay in the areas being bombarded by the Israelis? Many have no place to go; in the south, most of the bridges have been destroyed, trapping many families in their towns; and since Israel has been bombing civilian convoys, many are afraid to leave. And for good reason:

On Sunday [the Shaito family] gave up their stand, and all 18 members crammed into the family's white Mazda minivan. They planned to head north toward the relative safety of Beirut.

Within minutes they became casualties of Israel's 12-day-old bombardment of southern Lebanon, which the Israelis say they will continue indefinitely to destroy the military abilities of Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group. By the Lebanese official count, Israel's attacks have killed more than 380 Lebanese.

An Israeli rocket, which Lebanese officials said was likely fired from a helicopter, slammed into the center of the Shaitos' van as it sped round a bend a few miles west of their village, and the van crashed into a hillside. Three occupants were killed: an uncle, Mohammad; the grandmother, Nazira; and a Syrian man who had guarded their home. The missile also critically wounded Mrs. Shaito and her sister. Eleven others suffered less severe wounds.

"They said leave, and that's what we did," said Musbah Shaito, another uncle, as his niece, Heba, 16, cried hysterically behind him for her dead father, whose head was nearly blown off. This reporter watched as paramedics struggled to remove the dead from the van, but soon gave up, as an Israeli drone hovered overhead.

"This is what we got for listening to them," Mr. Shaito said, speaking of the Israelis.

This is what Mr Dershowitz's cold calculus means in human terms. That same day, Israel reported that they had hit "approximately 20 vehicles" suspected of "serving the terror organization in the launching of missiles at Israel, and were recognized fleeing from or staying at missile-launching areas."

Read that again. These vehicles were either fleeing or staying, so they were hit. These civilians were obviously "complicit," according to Alan Dershiwitz.

I arrived last night in Amman to my friend's house, where I've been received in the Arabic tradition, that is to say with open arms and unlimited hospitality. I'll be figuring out my ticket back to Paris and should be back in France in the next week or so.

Yesterday was a bloody day for Lebanon, even more so than "usual." At least 55 Lebanese civilians were killed in Israeli attacks, bringing the toll up to over 300. The Israelis also attacked Achrifieh, which is a chic Christian neighborhood of Beirut.

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, has spoken out agains the assaults by Israel and Hizbollah:

Indiscriminate shelling of cities constitutes a foreseeable and unacceptable targeting of civilians... Similarly, the bombardment of sites with alleged military significance, but resulting invariably in the killing of innocent civilians, is unjustifiable.

Responding to complaints that Israel has been using disproportionate force, Dan Gillerman, the Israeli ambassador to the UN, had the following to say: "You're damn right we are."

In other news, The New York Times published a letter to the editor that I sent them the other day.

I've been told that El Pais linked to my blog, but I haven't been able to find it, so a link would be appreciated.

An Australian friend of mine who has stayed in Beirut is also keeping a blog. You can check it out here.

I arrived safely last night to Damascus, and UNRWA has welcomed me with open arms. For one reason or another, the convoy split at the Syrian border, with the World Bank bus and one or two other buses going to the Dead Sea. I was told by UNDP and UNRWA in Syria that there were no hotels at the Dead Sea, so I stayed here at the UNRWA training center in Damascus.

Representatives from UNHCR, UNRWA and UNDP are arranging for me to leave to Amman today, since it seems that my Syrian transit visa is only good for 24 hours. I will be staying with friends in Amman until I can arrange for a flight back to Paris, which will probably take a few days. I will check in with the Amman UNESCO office today or tomorrow morning at the latest.

I will give a more detailed account when I get to Amman.

With the help of my friends all over the world and some connections from work, I've been lucky enough to find a way out of the country in a UN convoy. My colleagues and friends at UNESCO especially, and some diplomats and friends from Iraq and Iceland, have been very helpful, and I appreciate this greatly. It is in situations like this that you realize how much your friends and family really care about you. My family has been worried sick but have done everything they can to help me leave.

So to everyone who has worried about me, made telephone calls and sent emails for me, given me advice, checked up, sent encouraging words or called just to say that they're thinking of me, thank you. Thank you very much.

I almost regret leaving, because many of my friends here cannot. I have the privilege of having the right color passport, or in the case of my Palestinian friends, of having a passport at all. So it is both with relief and with a heavy heart that I leave this city that I love so much and all of my friends here, whom I'll miss very much.

I'll probably spend most if not all of tomorrow in the bus or on the border tomorrow, but when I arrive in Amman, I'll post an update of the voyage.

I just ran into a woman and her 4 children who has just come from Tyre. The first thing she asked was whether there were bombs here too. She didn't speak any English (only Arabic and German), so I had to interpret in bad German for my friend who was trying to help her get in touch with the German embassy (she and her children are German citizens).

We gave her the number for the German embassy in Beirut and sent the Germans an email with her information so that she could get evacuated. She told me that she didn't care if she went to France or Italy or Germany or wherever, so long as her kids could get out of Lebanon. Tyre has been bombed many times in the last few days. She has a 2-month old baby in addition to her three other children children, who are 9, 8 and 5 years old.

My Dutch friend just crossed the Syrian border. She was stuck there for a while, because there were so many people crossing: Dutch, Brazilian, Czech and Swiss busses among others. She said that the road was fine and that all was calm, since the Israelis must know that a lot of foreign nationals are leaving by road.

I'm watching al-Jazeera, and they are reporting that Hizbollah has just downed an Israeli F-16.

People have been streaming in from the South and from Dahiye, the southern suburb of Beirut that's been continuously hit by the Israelis, so the building where I'm staying is getting fuller and fuller. At all hours of the night, there are groups of people sitting in the hallways smoking or talking or worrying.

I haven't gone into Dahiye, but a friend who lives there has told me what it looks like. Here are some pictures from the Times:

The American embassy is a mess this morning. They would not let anyone inside the embassy; instead, they handed out registration forms and a list of things to bring in a "small bag" in an evacuation. We were told that "hopefully" there would be an evacuation this week, probably to Cyprus, however, they did not know how. To evacuate, it is necessary to pay, but if you don't have enough money, you must sign a promissory note. The rules for who can evacuate are this: American citizens only. If your children are not citizens, they can come, so long as they are minors. Non-American parents who have children (minors) that are American nationals must choose which parent will go with the children and which will stay. Green card holders cannot go. Non-American spouses of American citizens cannot go. Families will be split up.

The French are not splitting up families and have already started their evacuation. French residents, myself included, are not allowed to go. It is unclear if they are leaving by air, land or sea, but I don't think that it's by sea. The Dutch left this morning by bus to Aleppo. I have heard, but cannot confirm, that the Italians are stuck in a bus, because they cannot leave by sea due to the Israeli shelling of the ports. I'm not sure if they are stuck at a port or if they detoured from the port and are trying to leave by land now. Two British warships arrived last night, although they have not called my friend with a British passport. There is no word from the Australian embassy, and the Jordanians evacuated by bus several days ago, although a Jordanian friend of mine missed that bus, because she has two passports and was not registered with the Jordanians.

UNESCO is planning on evacuating people out of Beirut to the city of Jbeil (Byblos), but there is no word on leaving Lebanon.

It seems like none of the Western countries were able to negotiate safe passage by sea with the Israelis, which is highly surprising but would explain why the Israelis decided to hit so many ports this weekend. The word is that 8 Canadians were killed last night, although again, it's impossible for me to confirm this.

I am thinking about taking advantage of the lull in attacks on the northern road into Syria to try to get to the border and bribe my way into a transit visa so that I can get to Turkey. A Dutch friend of mine who evacuated this morning with her compatriots told me that the road was passable. Prices seem to be dropping a bit for taxis, since the Israelis have taken a break from bombing the roads, so it looks like a taxi to Tripoli would be around $100, and probably a similar price for the rest of the trip to Syria. Once inside Syria, the prices should be normal, which is to say cheap. From the Turkish border, I could stay with friends in Mersin and then make my way to Istanbul, where I have friends and could negotiate a flight to Paris with one of the two Turkish Airways tickets that I have. I don't really fancy waiting a week or more for the Americans, and once in Cyprus, I'll be on my own, and I'm pretty sure that Turkish Airways does not fly to Cyprus.

I was called this morning at the school where I had taken my first Arabic class the morning Hizbollah attacked Israel. The woman from the school asked if I was leaving or not, so that they could try to organize themselves for the classes that had already begun. I told her that I was not sure when I would be leaving but that I was pretty sure that I would not be continuing my classes with them. She told me to be careful and said that she would pray for me to get out safely. Then she left me with a touching but disconcerting request: "Please pray for my country." I can't remember the last time I prayed, but I said I would.

Apparently the US is sending an "assessment team" to Beirut, which may or may not have already arrived. This is the email (they still haven't managed to get with the program and start sending text messages instead of emails) they sent me today:

The US Department of State and the US Department of Defense continue working on a plan to help American citizens who wish to depart Lebanon to leave in a secure and orderly manner. To assist in the development of that operation, the U.S. Government is sending an assessment team to Beirut to facilitate the safe departure of Americans who wish to leave.

The Embassy is open and will remain open at this time in support of American citizens in Lebanon. American citizens may register by contacting the Embassy in Beirut directly, or through the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs registration site at http://travelregistration.state.gov. For updated information, visit the State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs website at http://travel.state.gov.

Updated information on travel and security in Lebanon may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States, or, from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. Additional information, as it becomes available will be released via the media, Embassy warden announcements and on the Department and Embassy websites.

I'll try to get aboard any evacuation ship to Cyprus I can, but there are scores of thousands of foreigners here, and any evacuation effort will most likely take several days, and families with children and medical cases will be the first to leave. I'll sign the promissory note saying that I'll pay the government back, but I still find it scandalous.

I'm a little worried about how much I'll be able to take back with me. I've got a lot of books for my thesis, which I'm supposed to defend in September. But what I'm really worried about are friends of mine who cannot leave Lebanon. Many have headed for towns in the mountains, but it's hard to say how safe (and for how long) these places will end up being.

Otherwise, I've been staying away from the news today, reading and listening to music. I did go down to al Manara (the lighthouse), which was hit by Israel yesterday and is about a 7-10 minute walk from my place. I was actually surprised that the lighthouse was not more damaged (only the top seemed to be damaged). Here's what it looks like:



My friend is going back to what's left of his neighborhood in Dahiye (the residential suburb being called a "Hizbollah stronghold" where Hizbollah's offices are). He's going to try to take some pictures, which I'll try to post here.

Otherwise, here is an account of what's happening here by Robert Fisk, who lives in Beirut.

Here is an interesting interview with the co-director of an American NGO that actually talks with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran.

While I was buying a cheese and zataar manouche today, a guy came up and gave this flyer to a friend with me:



The snake in the corner is Nasrallah, and the text says, The resistance defends the nation? The nation is sacrificed by the resistance... (al maqawama tahmi wattan? al wattan tahiya al maqawama...)

We passed the flyer around so that everyone could see, then two Lebanese officers from the police station came by and asked my friend for his paper, which he took to mean papers, starting to get out his passport. They said no, and told him that they wanted to see the flyer. They inspected it and then asked him where it came from. A few minutes later, a young kid about ten years old came up and asked to see it too. Then the guy who gave us the flyer came back with more, passing them out. He and his friends started loudly discussing how the Lebanese people didn't need Hizbollah.

It's hard to say if they were sincere, because there was a police station within earshot. They could have been trying to find people with anti-Hizbollah sentiments, because after all, the other day, Nasrallah did say, in a pronouncement that would make Bush proud: if you're against us, you're against Lebanon.

I meant to post this last night, but I was too tired. This is a picture of Bliss Street, the main drag for students at the American University of Beirut in Hamra. On Friday and Saturday nights, it is usually packed with young people having food at the local diners Zataar wa Zeit (Zataar and Oil) and B to B (Breakfast to Breakfast) after a night of dancing.

To give you an idea of how things have slowed down here, there was no one there last night, and no cars either:

I registered with the French embassy as a resident of Paris today and then decided to go for lunch and a coffee. As I was having a beer (instead of a coffee), my friends and I heard an explosion that sounded louder and closer than they have so far. It turns out that the Israelis have bombed Beirut's main port and the neighborhood of al Manara, which is on the coast and about a ten minute walk from my place here.

The ports of Jounieh, Jbeil (Byblos) and Tripoli (all north of Beirut) were also hit. As I write, all of these places are being hit again. The Israelis are not really discriminating based on sect; they are bombing all of Lebanon's infrastructure, making good on their promise to set Lebanon back 20 years.

Balbaak was also hit. The house of a leader in Hizbollah was hit, but it's unclear if he was harmed or not.

The word out at all of the European embassies is that the European, American, Canadian, British and Australian embassies are going to start evacuating by boat to Cyprus starting on Monday. However, I'm not sure how we're supposed to board these boats if the Israelis keep bombing all the ports in the area.

A lot of people are still trying to leave by car, but the roads to Syria are very dangerous, because the Israelis are continually bombing them. Normally a taxi to Damascus costs about $15 or $20; yesterday, people were paying $200 to $300; and today, people are paying between $800 and $1,000 per person.

UPDATE: They just hit the port (or maybe Manara) again, and perhaps I'm just being paranoid, but I have the feeling that the Israelis are doing this to make it more difficult for Westerners to leave...